By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence (analyst) doesn't think the Switch will pass the 100 million mark

Agente42 on 15 December 2021
kirby007 said:
Chrkeller said:

With a few exceptions, did anybody expect such a Switch success? I sure didn't. Frankly I thought it would be 30-40 million, back when it was announced. The Switch has been crazy.

i called the switch before it was even announced

I launch day I presumed 80-110M because Switch is market of Wiiu+3ds+ psvita combined.

I´m wrong, but not alienate the portable out of the scene, likewise other people.

The portable blindness is real, and people always forget portable sales in videogame history when make predictions, and the same videogame history for this people only exists after Playstation. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 15 December 2021

Around the Network
mjk45 on 15 December 2021
JWeinCom said:

Still not going to make it. That cliff is coming!

Am I right in thinking the latest weekly sales are behind last year if so this decline means the Switch is toast and will only reach 99,999,999 units sold.



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

Apkopf on 16 December 2021
Chrkeller said:

With a few exceptions, did anybody expect such a Switch success? I sure didn't. Frankly I thought it would be 30-40 million, back when it was announced. The Switch has been crazy.

I remember thinking before it was released that it was my dream machine but given the lack of success from the vita and the Wii-u I was thinking that perhaps the market did not think the same. I don't remember how much I thought it would sell but at that point I would have been pleased with 40 mil. 

edit: forgot the quote



Jumpin on 16 December 2021
JWeinCom said:

Still not going to make it. That cliff is coming!

You make a compelling argument. Ah, hell! I’m getting on that band wagon too.

The cliff will have to come soon to avoid the 100 million mark. Does the evidence point to sometime during this week or next?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin on 16 December 2021
mjk45 said:
JWeinCom said:

Still not going to make it. That cliff is coming!

Am I right in thinking the latest weekly sales are behind last year if so this decline means the Switch is toast and will only reach 99,999,999 units sold.

Maybe Nintendo has already cancelled production even earlier than that after seeing the light at the edge of the cliff?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Around the Network
AJNShelton on 16 December 2021
Chrkeller said:

With a few exceptions, did anybody expect such a Switch success? I sure didn't. Frankly I thought it would be 30-40 million, back when it was announced. The Switch has been crazy.

Honestly, I did. It was a revolution, and so well thought, it HAD to be a success



Naum on 16 December 2021
JWeinCom said:

Still not going to make it. That cliff is coming!

Ahh the good old cliff...

Remember when the cliff somehow went down and backwards?



If it isn't turnbased it isn't worth playing   (mostly)

And shepherds we shall be,

For Thee, my Lord, for Thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand, That our feet may swiftly carry out Thy command. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomine Patris, et Filii, et Spiritūs Sancti. -----The Boondock Saints

AJNShelton on 16 December 2021
Kakadu18 said:

For a short second I thought this was a new thread lol.
This "analyst" thinks the DS and Gameboy are not only not consoles but also not even video game systems at all. Am I allowed to call them retard?

This "analyst" didn't understand what made the Switch appealing and popular and didn't understand why the 3DS sold less than the DS. They said the 3DS sold 75mil in the smartphone era which clearly shows they thought portable gaming was going to die because of smartphones. This shows me that layman armchair analysts on video game forums are in more cases than I thought as knowledgeable or more knowledgeable than professionals.

The worst part is that they don't even count the PS1 as one of the few consoles reaching 100 million



AJNShelton on 16 December 2021
Shadow1980 said:

The actual article was posted in Sept. 2019, a full seven months before the OP posted the link to it. At the time, the idea that the Switch might sell "just short of 100M" was not unreasonable or unrealistic, though definitely pessimistic, and one could definitely be excused for thinking that 2019 was the peak year and it was all downhill from there. Aside from maybe one or two super-optimistic super-fans, nobody seriously expected it to blow up like it did in 2020, where it ended up selling some 30-40% more than the average prediction.

The article is laughable for several reasons:

- They expected the Switch to sell 17 million in 2019, despite releasing 8 exclusive games during this year, including a brand new Pokémon game, and a revision + new model (the Switch V2 and the Lite). 

- They said that the appeal was "soaring" after only 2 years, and that the main appeal was the fact that it's portable. Early data showed it wasn't the case, and we know that it's still not the case.

- The fact that they said it will "only reach 50 million after 3 years" and concluding that it will be difficult - from this fact - to reach 100 million, despite the fact that that's better than what the PS4 did (47 million after 3 years) is also laughable.



Kakadu18 on 16 December 2021
SKMBlake said:
Kakadu18 said:

For a short second I thought this was a new thread lol.
This "analyst" thinks the DS and Gameboy are not only not consoles but also not even video game systems at all. Am I allowed to call them retard?

This "analyst" didn't understand what made the Switch appealing and popular and didn't understand why the 3DS sold less than the DS. They said the 3DS sold 75mil in the smartphone era which clearly shows they thought portable gaming was going to die because of smartphones. This shows me that layman armchair analysts on video game forums are in more cases than I thought as knowledgeable or more knowledgeable than professionals.

The worst part is that they don't even count the PS1 as one of the few consoles reaching 100 million

Oh god, I missed that. That makes it even dumber.