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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence (analyst) doesn't think the Switch will pass the 100 million mark

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
It was an article seven months ago.
Thank you.

I'm glad you've noticed it on my OP



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To be honest I find it extremely hard to believe the Switch will fall short of 100 Million, here are several reasons why:

-The Switch is over 3 years old now and Sales Year over Year are STILL growing, as Switch sales are up an insane 43% in 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019, compare that to the Wii where the Wii within 2.5 Years into it's life-cycle started seeing declining Year-Over-Year sales which lead to the Wii having a much shorter lifespan in sales. The Switch still growing in sales over 3 years in is showing how the Switch will have a much longer lifespan in sales over the Wii, and the Switch is doing it with literally ZERO price cuts thus far, while the Switch Lite is cheaper most people still prefer the Regular Switch over the Lite. Once the OG Switch gets a price cut it'll increase the Switch's lifespan even more.

-Plus the Switch is a a rate of selling nearly 28Mil in 2020 alone, while the 43% growth in 2020 is likely inflated by the release of Animal Crossing, even a more likely 25% growth would result in the Switch selling 24 Million for the year. Making the Switch sit around 75 Million by the end of 2020, pretty much borderline outselling the 3DS's lifetime sales. The Switch sales need to die really quickly after 2020 for the Switch to somehow fall short of 100 MIllion, die to a sales amount that's unprecedented which is very unlikely.

-The Switch will also get Nintendo's FULL software support for the first time in Nintendo's history, meaning the Switch will be full of releases with little droughts for the next several years of the Switch's lifespan. And games are what sell people to game consoles the most, and the Switch will have a ton of them for the next several years making the Switch very appealing for all gamers to purchase.

-Also since the Switch is essentially a handheld, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo try to milk the Switch as much as possible by releasing a multitude of Switch models to keep interest and sales momentum up. They did this with the Gameboy, DS, and 3DS and all were benefitial in maintaining the hype and buzz around those systems and a good amount of people purchases two systems in the same family, increasing overall sales. I'm sure a Switch Pro, maybe a console only Switch would help the Switch keep those sales up for a very long time.

-Also since it's a handheld, the Switch will age like fine wine no matter how anemic the hardware gets, usually consumers don't care much about graphics when playing portably. The 3DS, Gameboy, and DS were all very technologically inferior compared to their competitors even when they first released but they all killed the competition. However, the Switch I believe will age far better than those systems since the Switch when it first released had graphics comparable to Current Gen dedicated Home consoles like the PS4 and Xbox One, the Gameboy, 3DS, and DS often times had graphics comparable to last to 2 generations back. The Switch in 2030 might still be a competent experience.

-Also, Nintendo essentially has a monopoly on the dedicated portable console division now after killing off the PS Vita, if you want to play console like games on the go, Switch is pretty much the only option to go to.





These guys are really clueless, aren't they?



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Simple. If 3DS could reach 75mil units, Switch can do 100. It's already outpacing the 3DS by 12 million in the same period of time.



120 million Swicth units sold LTD seems more likely.



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I was the first person to say this console would sell over 100 million and people laughed at me. It is nice to see the whole thing turn full circle.



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Mbolibombo said:
CarcharodonKraz said:
Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.

Should probably stop that thought. That's not how it works, like at all.

Lol! Well ok then :) have seen the episode of rick and morty w fascist morty? Freakin hilarious :)



z101 said:
CarcharodonKraz said:
Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.

Thats not how things work. Just a few points for you to think about (there are many more, but perhaps they will come to you when you think about it):

  • Switch price is much higher than the price of WiiU or 3DS
  • Switch has higher game prices
  • Switch has not even had a single price cut
  • Switch is already selling almost as much as WiiU and 3DS combined

Going by sale statistics Switch will most likely outsell combined numbers of WiiU and 3DS by a large margin before the Switch successor arrives (and Switch already made Nintendo more money than both predecessors combined).

Yeah I guess so. If ur comparing the switch directly to those consoles that mostly makes sense. (Wiiu did start at 300&350 tho. 3ds at 250 w an almost immediate price cut) Personally I was thinking about 10do systems in general. Cube for example I wanna say sold around 40mill? Not wii successful but not wiiu either. Gboy advance im not sure. Surely more. 70-80mill? So switch would have would have a ways to go yeah? Def seems plausible. Would that still be wildly successfull or does it become a bit more expected? Again its just a thought. Feel free to share some further insight or points of view.



CarcharodonKraz said:
z101 said:

Thats not how things work. Just a few points for you to think about (there are many more, but perhaps they will come to you when you think about it):

  • Switch price is much higher than the price of WiiU or 3DS
  • Switch has higher game prices
  • Switch has not even had a single price cut
  • Switch is already selling almost as much as WiiU and 3DS combined

Going by sale statistics Switch will most likely outsell combined numbers of WiiU and 3DS by a large margin before the Switch successor arrives (and Switch already made Nintendo more money than both predecessors combined).

Yeah I guess so. If ur comparing the switch directly to those consoles that mostly makes sense. (Wiiu did start at 300&350 tho. 3ds at 250 w an almost immediate price cut) Personally I was thinking about 10do systems in general. Cube for example I wanna say sold around 40mill? Not wii successful but not wiiu either. Gboy advance im not sure. Surely more. 70-80mill? So switch would have would have a ways to go yeah? Def seems plausible. Would that still be wildly successfull or does it become a bit more expected? Again its just a thought. Feel free to share some further insight or points of view.

The same could be said for Sony with the PS3+PSP. Or Microsoft when compared to the Xbox 360. You're just forgetting that the console industry has contracted pretty majorly in recent years. The combined sales of all the consoles and handhelds back then were somewhere north of 500mil. No company is going to see the sales numbers from those peak years ever again. Gaming has expanded too far beyond just conosles, with phone and PC gaming eating away at marketshare. If you look at recent numbers, however, the Switch is doing extremely well. If it outsells the Wii U and 3DS combinded, I would argue that it's managed pretty amazing turnaround from the bleak outlook of slow decay that Nintendo was facing just last gen.



I think Switch have a very good chance of selling over 100M, and the article is an amalgamation of wrong stuff.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."