Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence (analyst) doesn't think the Switch will pass the 100 million mark

Ka-pi96 said:
They also don't know that DS and Gameboy are consoles so I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt. You can't trust the word of fools.

+ the PS1.... one of the worst "reports" I have read in a while. It's obvious they have no clue how the industry works in general. 



Vote the Mayor for Mayor!

Around the Network
xMetroid said:
Yea i mean at that period last year it was possible to think 2019 was going to be the peak and to eventually fall a little starting 2020. But now it's pretty clear that the momentum isn't stopping soon and they have multiple cards to prevent a drastic decline.

The next-gen argument also is not really viable anymore, Switch's demand is at it's peak right now and there is 1 console of the 2 next gens revealed almost entirely and the other one as been in the media for a while with spec announcements, logo and now controller. The thing is, they might have problems with the manufacturing of these so the launch might be less impressive than anticipated. Many games are having developments issues because of Covid-19 and maybe for this reason some games that were suppose to be a launch title might miss the target (maybe the entire launch will be postponed tbh) and the first months should be pretty weak.

Imo, there is no way now the Switch will miss the 100 million mark. It will definetly beat the Wii and climb a little higher. If Nintendo was hoping 110 millions i'm sure it means the Switch lifecycle isn't done anytime soon and they won't pull the plug quickly. I think it could reach around 115-125 millions.

Same here.... Though I am expecting it to have a somewhat steep decline at one point (as most systems do as of late) I am still fairly confident that even 120 million is attainable in the long run for them. Anything under 100 million is fairytale land at the moment. 



Vote the Mayor for Mayor!

Nintendo has two BIG obstacles to overcome if they want Switch to really go that far: competition and system sellers.

We have no idea how people are going to react and transition to next gen.
Last time, transition was faster than some believed. But now, it's still too soon to know how this will go.
Maybe these new consoles will be even more attractive than we think, after they are 100% revealed.

Nintendo has sold more than 53 million based on a few important factors: portability and quality/quantity of 1st party games.
Whilst portability won't go away, the quantity of 1st party system sellers, might.
Most, if not all, Nintendo system sellers are already out. And even if sequels are released, it is not common for sequels to have the same impact or even sell as much as the original titles.
So, the question is: on a system that heavily relies on Nintendo's own games, can Nintendo bring new titles that can carry the console onward - specially when new consoles are arriving? Consoles like Gamecube, Wii and Wii U show that this is not the case.



hunter_alien said:
Ka-pi96 said:
They also don't know that DS and Gameboy are consoles so I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt. You can't trust the word of fools.

+ the PS1.... one of the worst "reports" I have read in a while. It's obvious they have no clue how the industry works in general. 

This. 


The only way I see the Switch not passing a hundred million is if Nintendo cannibalise their own sales by releasing a successor, in the same vain that the GBA would have reached 100 mil if the PSP and DS did not release early into its cycle. The GBA was alone from 2001 till 2004; I think that they still could have the same momentum in 2005 easily if it were not for the new big boys on the block. Still, the GBA pulled almost 82 mil. 

Nintendo is not likely to do this, however, and whatever Switch successor in the coming years will likely be a "new" Switch than a Switch 2. 




Remember the 3Ds were supposed to exceed 100m but in the end they didn't make it.



Around the Network
DélioPT said:
Nintendo has two BIG obstacles to overcome if they want Switch to really go that far: competition and system sellers.

We have no idea how people are going to react and transition to next gen.
Last time, transition was faster than some believed. But now, it's still too soon to know how this will go.
Maybe these new consoles will be even more attractive than we think, after they are 100% revealed.

Nintendo has sold more than 53 million based on a few important factors: portability and quality/quantity of 1st party games.
Whilst portability won't go away, the quantity of 1st party system sellers, might.
Most, if not all, Nintendo system sellers are already out. And even if sequels are released, it is not common for sequels to have the same impact or even sell as much as the original titles.
So, the question is: on a system that heavily relies on Nintendo's own games, can Nintendo bring new titles that can carry the console onward - specially when new consoles are arriving? Consoles like Gamecube, Wii and Wii U show that this is not the case.

This is also ignoring a couple of factors. 

* Evergreens are system sellers - Games like MK and BotW has actually increased years after they release by year. They will keep selling systems for the reminder of Switch's lifespan. 

* Nintendo has one system rolling these days, comparing it to other generations when Nintendo had 2-3 systems producing games for doesnt make much sense.

* Not sure why questioning Nintendos ability to put out quality first party games is even a thing? They're gonna keep putting out quality software. 

* Switch doesnt offer the same thing as PS and Xbox which is why a new generation wont affect sales for the Switch. There's been multiple reports from NPD about Switch not replacing any other system but rather being an addition. That will continue to be true for next gen as well.

* Price cut. Switch has had no price cuts and is currently in it's 4th fiscal year. It's when the time comes going to be a way of keep pushing hardware.

Evilms said:
Remember the 3Ds were supposed to exceed 100m but in the end they didn't make it.

No one in their right mind actually thought that the 3DS would exceed 100M 3+ years in to it's lifespan. So not sure why you are making this stuff up.



Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.



CarcharodonKraz said:
Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.

Should probably stop that thought. That's not how it works, like at all.



Thats hilarious, of course Switch will pass the 100 million mark there is no doubt among real marketing analysts about that.

Switch even sold more in 2020 despite 2019 saw more games in the first three month. At the moment Switch sales are only limited by production numbers.

Last edited by z101 - on 15 April 2020

This article is so bad that it makes me wonder if there are any video game publishers who pay for DFC's analyses.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club