Nintendo has two BIG obstacles to overcome if they want Switch to really go that far: competition and system sellers.

We have no idea how people are going to react and transition to next gen.
Last time, transition was faster than some believed. But now, it's still too soon to know how this will go.
Maybe these new consoles will be even more attractive than we think, after they are 100% revealed.

Nintendo has sold more than 53 million based on a few important factors: portability and quality/quantity of 1st party games.
Whilst portability won't go away, the quantity of 1st party system sellers, might.
Most, if not all, Nintendo system sellers are already out. And even if sequels are released, it is not common for sequels to have the same impact or even sell as much as the original titles.
So, the question is: on a system that heavily relies on Nintendo's own games, can Nintendo bring new titles that can carry the console onward - specially when new consoles are arriving? Consoles like Gamecube, Wii and Wii U show that this is not the case.

This. 


The only way I see the Switch not passing a hundred million is if Nintendo cannibalise their own sales by releasing a successor, in the same vain that the GBA would have reached 100 mil if the PSP and DS did not release early into its cycle. The GBA was alone from 2001 till 2004; I think that they still could have the same momentum in 2005 easily if it were not for the new big boys on the block. Still, the GBA pulled almost 82 mil. 

Nintendo is not likely to do this, however, and whatever Switch successor in the coming years will likely be a "new" Switch than a Switch 2. 

Remember the 3Ds were supposed to exceed 100m but in the end they didn't make it.

This is also ignoring a couple of factors. 

* Evergreens are system sellers - Games like MK and BotW has actually increased years after they release by year. They will keep selling systems for the reminder of Switch's lifespan. 

* Nintendo has one system rolling these days, comparing it to other generations when Nintendo had 2-3 systems producing games for doesnt make much sense.

* Not sure why questioning Nintendos ability to put out quality first party games is even a thing? They're gonna keep putting out quality software. 

* Switch doesnt offer the same thing as PS and Xbox which is why a new generation wont affect sales for the Switch. There's been multiple reports from NPD about Switch not replacing any other system but rather being an addition. That will continue to be true for next gen as well.

* Price cut. Switch has had no price cuts and is currently in it's 4th fiscal year. It's when the time comes going to be a way of keep pushing hardware.

No one in their right mind actually thought that the 3DS would exceed 100M 3+ years in to it's lifespan. So not sure why you are making this stuff up.

Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.

Should probably stop that thought. That's not how it works, like at all.

Thats hilarious, of course Switch will pass the 100 million mark there is no doubt among real marketing analysts about that.

Switch even sold more in 2020 despite 2019 saw more games in the first three month. At the moment Switch sales are only limited by production numbers.

Thats not how things work. Just a few points for you to think about (there are many more, but perhaps they will come to you when you think about it):

• Switch price is much higher than the price of WiiU or 3DS
• Switch has higher game prices
• Switch has not even had a single price cut
• Switch is already selling almost as much as WiiU and 3DS combined

Going by sale statistics Switch will most likely outsell combined numbers of WiiU and 3DS by a large margin before the Switch successor arrives (and Switch already made Nintendo more money than both predecessors combined).

First, this article will not age well at all.

Second, anyone that thinks the new generation systems will impact sales are crazy. We are looking at a $500+ price tag for these new systems with most likely bare bones software options (PS4/Xbox One will likely still have better/more software early on) that will be impacted by economic fallout amid the COVID-19 pandemic (and will likely effect the supply chains for these new systems). In all honesty, if I was Sony/Microsoft I would suspend all development of these systems and focus on my current system but that is a different topic for a different day. All these signs point to Nintendo with the Switch and Lite gaining more momentum and sales/market share with price being such a major factor and arguably the best lineup of games released of all time for a system in such a short time span.

I really think the Switch family will be pushing 100 million units by the end of March 2022. If they do the right things the last couple of years of the Switch's lifespan it could easily become their best selling console and could beat the PS2 with a little good luck (which is lining up for them).

Really dumb article. 100 million for Switch is almost guaranteed at this point, and would take something going drastically bad to stop switch before that mark. In all likelihood Switch will end up between 110 and 120 million.

Major sales catalysts of the future:
1) Sure most mega system sellers are out, but as others have said, evergreen titles like Zelda, Mario, MK, Smash, likely AC, maybe Pokemon will continue to act as systems sellers for the Switch.

2) Sequels to evergreen titles which are guaranteed at least 10 million sellers will continue pushing Switch sales the next few years, including sequels to Zelda, Mario 3D, and Pokemon. Also I assume a proper new 2D Mario will come out at some point that can also be added to this list.

3) Switch is continuing to get its library fleshed out by its third party library. Sure it will mostly be ports from the past few years, it isn't and won't be getting much in the way of brand new same day releases. But games that have come out in previous years are coming to Switch more and more, fleshing out its library, and could attract people waiting on the sidelines when they realize tons of third party content on the Switch can allow them to play games they may or may not have played on other systems or PC anywhere and anytime they want.

4) There has STILL BEEN NO PRICE CUT or even serious bundles. Sure there is the $200 Lite but lots of people don't want a portable only system and when the hybrid Switch hits low $200s that will probably open up a lot more interested people.

5) There also has not been an upgraded version of the Switch which Nintendo is almost guaranteed to release at some point, which should bring in some extra people who were either waiting for a price cut or a better version of the Switch. And it will no doubt cause some original Switch owners to re-up and get a brand new premium version of the system. Hell even I, someone who would never think of owning the same system twice or like one of these people that get the same game twice for a different system, would even consider getting a brand new premium Switch with much bigger disk space, bigger screen, better battery life, hopefully bluetooth support, and no joy con drift (tho I think this has only ever happened to me in Overcooked) - though if Switch 2 is fully backwards compatible and I can just transfer all my digital games over I'd just wait for Switch 2 to come out rather than re-up with a premium version of the Switch.

6) Finally, the new Sony and Microsoft systems coming out have no portable aspect, therefore they won't really do anything to directly compete with the Switch's reason for success. Granted they will compete for gamers dollars to a degree, but in the end if you want to play top of the line games anywhere you will buy a Switch as that is your only choice.