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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence (analyst) doesn't think the Switch will pass the 100 million mark

Mbolibombo said:
DélioPT said:
Nintendo has two BIG obstacles to overcome if they want Switch to really go that far: competition and system sellers.

We have no idea how people are going to react and transition to next gen.
Last time, transition was faster than some believed. But now, it's still too soon to know how this will go.
Maybe these new consoles will be even more attractive than we think, after they are 100% revealed.

Nintendo has sold more than 53 million based on a few important factors: portability and quality/quantity of 1st party games.
Whilst portability won't go away, the quantity of 1st party system sellers, might.
Most, if not all, Nintendo system sellers are already out. And even if sequels are released, it is not common for sequels to have the same impact or even sell as much as the original titles.
So, the question is: on a system that heavily relies on Nintendo's own games, can Nintendo bring new titles that can carry the console onward - specially when new consoles are arriving? Consoles like Gamecube, Wii and Wii U show that this is not the case.

This is also ignoring a couple of factors. 

* Evergreens are system sellers - Games like MK and BotW has actually increased years after they release by year. They will keep selling systems for the reminder of Switch's lifespan. 

* Nintendo has one system rolling these days, comparing it to other generations when Nintendo had 2-3 systems producing games for doesnt make much sense.

* Not sure why questioning Nintendos ability to put out quality first party games is even a thing? They're gonna keep putting out quality software. 

* Switch doesnt offer the same thing as PS and Xbox which is why a new generation wont affect sales for the Switch. There's been multiple reports from NPD about Switch not replacing any other system but rather being an addition. That will continue to be true for next gen as well.

* Price cut. Switch has had no price cuts and is currently in it's 4th fiscal year. It's when the time comes going to be a way of keep pushing hardware.

Evilms said:
Remember the 3Ds were supposed to exceed 100m but in the end they didn't make it.

No one in their right mind actually thought that the 3DS would exceed 100M 3+ years in to it's lifespan. So not sure why you are making this stuff up.

Nintendo always had evergreens.
Even the Wii had monstruous evergreen titles, but that didn't - and doesn't - mean that it's enough. As soon as Nintendo stopped having major titles for Wii, or even other consoles, sales went down. Why? Because Nintendo consoles rely too much on Nintendo's SW. And when that doesn't work...

The question is not how many games Nintendo can produce or if they are great games.
The problem is that a quality game is not equal to system seller.
Since Wii, the only system seller Nintendo has made is Splatoon.

I didn't put in question quality, but "the quantity of 1st party system sellers".

Offering something different from PS5 or Series X might be a factor, but it may not be at the same time.
The data you mention suggests that only 30% of Switch owners don't own any other console. Which means that 70% have. And that is where the problem lies: there's a high risk that if PS5 and Series X are that attractive, PS4 and XB1 users will decide to buy it instead of a Switch.

Simplifying, a secondary console might not be a problem now but that is because those Sony and MS consumers have no other real option and if they want something more, for a 300$ and less, Switch is a good investment.
My belief is that if those new consoles are priced right and their features are really relevant, than, Switch can indeed take a hit, as the largest chunk of it's userbase is made of those same consumers.

Switch didn't have an official price cut, but they had a Lite at 100$/€ less.



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DélioPT said:
Mbolibombo said:

This is also ignoring a couple of factors. 

* Evergreens are system sellers - Games like MK and BotW has actually increased years after they release by year. They will keep selling systems for the reminder of Switch's lifespan. 

* Nintendo has one system rolling these days, comparing it to other generations when Nintendo had 2-3 systems producing games for doesnt make much sense.

* Not sure why questioning Nintendos ability to put out quality first party games is even a thing? They're gonna keep putting out quality software. 

* Switch doesnt offer the same thing as PS and Xbox which is why a new generation wont affect sales for the Switch. There's been multiple reports from NPD about Switch not replacing any other system but rather being an addition. That will continue to be true for next gen as well.

* Price cut. Switch has had no price cuts and is currently in it's 4th fiscal year. It's when the time comes going to be a way of keep pushing hardware.

No one in their right mind actually thought that the 3DS would exceed 100M 3+ years in to it's lifespan. So not sure why you are making this stuff up.

Nintendo always had evergreens.
Even the Wii had monstruous evergreen titles, but that didn't - and doesn't - mean that it's enough. As soon as Nintendo stopped having major titles for Wii, or even other consoles, sales went down. Why? Because Nintendo consoles rely too much on Nintendo's SW. And when that doesn't work...

The question is not how many games Nintendo can produce or if they are great games.
The problem is that a quality game is not equal to system seller.
Since Wii, the only system seller Nintendo has made is Splatoon.

I didn't put in question quality, but "the quantity of 1st party system sellers".

Offering something different from PS5 or Series X might be a factor, but it may not be at the same time.
The data you mention suggests that only 30% of Switch owners don't own any other console. Which means that 70% have. And that is where the problem lies: there's a high risk that if PS5 and Series X are that attractive, PS4 and XB1 users will decide to buy it instead of a Switch.

Simplifying, a secondary console might not be a problem now but that is because those Sony and MS consumers have no other real option and if they want something more, for a 300$ and less, Switch is a good investment.
My belief is that if those new consoles are priced right and their features are really relevant, than, Switch can indeed take a hit, as the largest chunk of it's userbase is made of those same consumers.

Switch didn't have an official price cut, but they had a Lite at 100$/€ less.

Wii's marketing strategy fade away pretty quickly and it wasn't a very loved console. There were also pretty much no games in the last years.

Switch on the other hand, has a totally different demographic. Top sellers aren't only family titles but things like Botw are going to sell 20+ millions.

Sure, 70% of the install base own another console. But what tells you they might just stick with the Switch if Nintendo is aggressive enought with a new model and big titles ? What tells you the new consoles won't be under 450/500$ and people right now don't really have the money for that ? What even tells you the lineup for these new consoles won't get delayed and the first year won't be lackluster ? Switch was out in PS4's peak but PS4 owners were still buying a Switch. Not everyone buys a console at the same time. And the numbers for software the Switch is producing shows that people really love the console and want to invest in it. It is selling faster than the PS4 after all....

Not saying the next gen won't affect it at all, but i'm really not expecting a huge it. Demand for the Switch is at it's peak right now and many gamers are well aware the PS5 is a thing and even more the Series X that literally got shown. 

And for the lite, we saw before the pandemic that people still higly prefer the classic Switch they just wanted one that much they had to go with a lite cause the other one was out of stock. Nothing says these won't go and buy a classic model later on too.

By the way, there was a pretty significant boost last year for the "new" switch classic with more battery life while it literally wasn't even advertised and only had 1h more battery. Really shows there is multiple ways for Nintendo to push the console like a pro model of sort. A price cut would be huge and never a system didn't get one before it's fourth year, it's just insane.   

There is a report Nintendo expected it to sell 110 millions, so i'm sure it means they plan a long lifecycle for it (hints of why it doesn't have any cuts)  and probably other sku on the way. At the end of the year it should hit pass the 70 millions mark if Nintendo does the bare minimum but i'm sure they will get pretty aggressive now. We're entering the second part of it's life and it should be about system diversity and aggressive pricing. 



If COVID keeps up it’ll sell 200 million.



How much would $450/$500 next-gen consoles, with who knows how many games that could be released on/around launch, would affect a $300/$200 console with an evolving library? Then you have to consider the economic landscape of our world, especially in the US. Not everyone is gonna get back on their feet right away and invest on new hardware with premium prices.

Then, you also have to consider that the Switch did really well in 2017-18, which some would consider part of the PS4's peak years, even as an older console. The Switch is doing incredibly well, especially in Japan, in which I doubt will cease even when the next-gen consoles release in that particular country. Even with the releases of Doom Eternal, Persona 5 Royal, and Final Fantasy VII remake, Animal Crossing: New Horizons has garnered a huge following and interest through social media and the like.

I think Switch will be either really close or pass 100 million. However, I think 2020 will be interesting because who knows if any of Nintendo's upcoming projects that have not been announced yet (or ones like BotW2 and Metroid Prime 4) are affected by COVID-19, whether it be in terms of release dates or having people develop games efficiently and on-time while out of the offices. Sakurai said the Smash Ultimate Fighters Pass Vol. 2 has been affected by the virus, and that's just DLC. Even Sony's The Last of Us Part II was delayed indefinitely. So who knows how things will pan out this year.

Last edited by Kai_Mao - on 15 April 2020

hunter_alien said:
Ka-pi96 said:
They also don't know that DS and Gameboy are consoles so I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt. You can't trust the word of fools.

+ the PS1.... one of the worst "reports" I have read in a while. It's obvious they have no clue how the industry works in general. 

And yet they charge $2000 for a report on the industry. Per console, I might add.

Seriously, the have a detailed outlook until 2022 in there: https://www.dfcint.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/nintendoswitchcover-april18.pdf (just the table of contents, of course)

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 15 April 2020

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It was an article seven months ago.
Thank you.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
It was an article seven months ago.
Thank you.

Still, the painting was on the wall even back then.

The only way they could have gotten to that conclusion is having taken the slowdown in July and August at face value and not understanding that people were just waiting for the new, upgraded model, and took it as a slowdown in interest for the console instead.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
It was an article seven months ago.
Thank you.

I'm glad you've noticed it on my OP



To be honest I find it extremely hard to believe the Switch will fall short of 100 Million, here are several reasons why:

-The Switch is over 3 years old now and Sales Year over Year are STILL growing, as Switch sales are up an insane 43% in 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019, compare that to the Wii where the Wii within 2.5 Years into it's life-cycle started seeing declining Year-Over-Year sales which lead to the Wii having a much shorter lifespan in sales. The Switch still growing in sales over 3 years in is showing how the Switch will have a much longer lifespan in sales over the Wii, and the Switch is doing it with literally ZERO price cuts thus far, while the Switch Lite is cheaper most people still prefer the Regular Switch over the Lite. Once the OG Switch gets a price cut it'll increase the Switch's lifespan even more.

-Plus the Switch is a a rate of selling nearly 28Mil in 2020 alone, while the 43% growth in 2020 is likely inflated by the release of Animal Crossing, even a more likely 25% growth would result in the Switch selling 24 Million for the year. Making the Switch sit around 75 Million by the end of 2020, pretty much borderline outselling the 3DS's lifetime sales. The Switch sales need to die really quickly after 2020 for the Switch to somehow fall short of 100 MIllion, die to a sales amount that's unprecedented which is very unlikely.

-The Switch will also get Nintendo's FULL software support for the first time in Nintendo's history, meaning the Switch will be full of releases with little droughts for the next several years of the Switch's lifespan. And games are what sell people to game consoles the most, and the Switch will have a ton of them for the next several years making the Switch very appealing for all gamers to purchase.

-Also since the Switch is essentially a handheld, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo try to milk the Switch as much as possible by releasing a multitude of Switch models to keep interest and sales momentum up. They did this with the Gameboy, DS, and 3DS and all were benefitial in maintaining the hype and buzz around those systems and a good amount of people purchases two systems in the same family, increasing overall sales. I'm sure a Switch Pro, maybe a console only Switch would help the Switch keep those sales up for a very long time.

-Also since it's a handheld, the Switch will age like fine wine no matter how anemic the hardware gets, usually consumers don't care much about graphics when playing portably. The 3DS, Gameboy, and DS were all very technologically inferior compared to their competitors even when they first released but they all killed the competition. However, the Switch I believe will age far better than those systems since the Switch when it first released had graphics comparable to Current Gen dedicated Home consoles like the PS4 and Xbox One, the Gameboy, 3DS, and DS often times had graphics comparable to last to 2 generations back. The Switch in 2030 might still be a competent experience.

-Also, Nintendo essentially has a monopoly on the dedicated portable console division now after killing off the PS Vita, if you want to play console like games on the go, Switch is pretty much the only option to go to.





These guys are really clueless, aren't they?



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1