Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence (analyst) doesn't think the Switch will pass the 100 million mark

CarcharodonKraz said:
Anyone else think that, while the sales have been strong for a single console, they look a bit mediocre when u consider this one machine has succeeded 2 consoles? Would we be praising nintendos sales if they were currently selling a portable and a home console with each selling half as much? Just a thought.

Thats not how things work. Just a few points for you to think about (there are many more, but perhaps they will come to you when you think about it):

  • Switch price is much higher than the price of WiiU or 3DS
  • Switch has higher game prices
  • Switch has not even had a single price cut
  • Switch is already selling almost as much as WiiU and 3DS combined

Going by sale statistics Switch will most likely outsell combined numbers of WiiU and 3DS by a large margin before the Switch successor arrives (and Switch already made Nintendo more money than both predecessors combined).



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First, this article will not age well at all.

Second, anyone that thinks the new generation systems will impact sales are crazy. We are looking at a $500+ price tag for these new systems with most likely bare bones software options (PS4/Xbox One will likely still have better/more software early on) that will be impacted by economic fallout amid the COVID-19 pandemic (and will likely effect the supply chains for these new systems). In all honesty, if I was Sony/Microsoft I would suspend all development of these systems and focus on my current system but that is a different topic for a different day. All these signs point to Nintendo with the Switch and Lite gaining more momentum and sales/market share with price being such a major factor and arguably the best lineup of games released of all time for a system in such a short time span.

I really think the Switch family will be pushing 100 million units by the end of March 2022. If they do the right things the last couple of years of the Switch's lifespan it could easily become their best selling console and could beat the PS2 with a little good luck (which is lining up for them).



Nintendo with the Switch:

Really dumb article. 100 million for Switch is almost guaranteed at this point, and would take something going drastically bad to stop switch before that mark. In all likelihood Switch will end up between 110 and 120 million.

Major sales catalysts of the future:
1) Sure most mega system sellers are out, but as others have said, evergreen titles like Zelda, Mario, MK, Smash, likely AC, maybe Pokemon will continue to act as systems sellers for the Switch.

2) Sequels to evergreen titles which are guaranteed at least 10 million sellers will continue pushing Switch sales the next few years, including sequels to Zelda, Mario 3D, and Pokemon. Also I assume a proper new 2D Mario will come out at some point that can also be added to this list.

3) Switch is continuing to get its library fleshed out by its third party library. Sure it will mostly be ports from the past few years, it isn't and won't be getting much in the way of brand new same day releases. But games that have come out in previous years are coming to Switch more and more, fleshing out its library, and could attract people waiting on the sidelines when they realize tons of third party content on the Switch can allow them to play games they may or may not have played on other systems or PC anywhere and anytime they want.

4) There has STILL BEEN NO PRICE CUT or even serious bundles. Sure there is the $200 Lite but lots of people don't want a portable only system and when the hybrid Switch hits low $200s that will probably open up a lot more interested people.

5) There also has not been an upgraded version of the Switch which Nintendo is almost guaranteed to release at some point, which should bring in some extra people who were either waiting for a price cut or a better version of the Switch. And it will no doubt cause some original Switch owners to re-up and get a brand new premium version of the system. Hell even I, someone who would never think of owning the same system twice or like one of these people that get the same game twice for a different system, would even consider getting a brand new premium Switch with much bigger disk space, bigger screen, better battery life, hopefully bluetooth support, and no joy con drift (tho I think this has only ever happened to me in Overcooked) - though if Switch 2 is fully backwards compatible and I can just transfer all my digital games over I'd just wait for Switch 2 to come out rather than re-up with a premium version of the Switch.

6) Finally, the new Sony and Microsoft systems coming out have no portable aspect, therefore they won't really do anything to directly compete with the Switch's reason for success. Granted they will compete for gamers dollars to a degree, but in the end if you want to play top of the line games anywhere you will buy a Switch as that is your only choice.



Mbolibombo said:
DélioPT said:
Nintendo has two BIG obstacles to overcome if they want Switch to really go that far: competition and system sellers.

We have no idea how people are going to react and transition to next gen.
Last time, transition was faster than some believed. But now, it's still too soon to know how this will go.
Maybe these new consoles will be even more attractive than we think, after they are 100% revealed.

Nintendo has sold more than 53 million based on a few important factors: portability and quality/quantity of 1st party games.
Whilst portability won't go away, the quantity of 1st party system sellers, might.
Most, if not all, Nintendo system sellers are already out. And even if sequels are released, it is not common for sequels to have the same impact or even sell as much as the original titles.
So, the question is: on a system that heavily relies on Nintendo's own games, can Nintendo bring new titles that can carry the console onward - specially when new consoles are arriving? Consoles like Gamecube, Wii and Wii U show that this is not the case.

This is also ignoring a couple of factors. 

* Evergreens are system sellers - Games like MK and BotW has actually increased years after they release by year. They will keep selling systems for the reminder of Switch's lifespan. 

* Nintendo has one system rolling these days, comparing it to other generations when Nintendo had 2-3 systems producing games for doesnt make much sense.

* Not sure why questioning Nintendos ability to put out quality first party games is even a thing? They're gonna keep putting out quality software. 

* Switch doesnt offer the same thing as PS and Xbox which is why a new generation wont affect sales for the Switch. There's been multiple reports from NPD about Switch not replacing any other system but rather being an addition. That will continue to be true for next gen as well.

* Price cut. Switch has had no price cuts and is currently in it's 4th fiscal year. It's when the time comes going to be a way of keep pushing hardware.

Evilms said:
Remember the 3Ds were supposed to exceed 100m but in the end they didn't make it.

No one in their right mind actually thought that the 3DS would exceed 100M 3+ years in to it's lifespan. So not sure why you are making this stuff up.

Nintendo always had evergreens.
Even the Wii had monstruous evergreen titles, but that didn't - and doesn't - mean that it's enough. As soon as Nintendo stopped having major titles for Wii, or even other consoles, sales went down. Why? Because Nintendo consoles rely too much on Nintendo's SW. And when that doesn't work...

The question is not how many games Nintendo can produce or if they are great games.
The problem is that a quality game is not equal to system seller.
Since Wii, the only system seller Nintendo has made is Splatoon.

I didn't put in question quality, but "the quantity of 1st party system sellers".

Offering something different from PS5 or Series X might be a factor, but it may not be at the same time.
The data you mention suggests that only 30% of Switch owners don't own any other console. Which means that 70% have. And that is where the problem lies: there's a high risk that if PS5 and Series X are that attractive, PS4 and XB1 users will decide to buy it instead of a Switch.

Simplifying, a secondary console might not be a problem now but that is because those Sony and MS consumers have no other real option and if they want something more, for a 300$ and less, Switch is a good investment.
My belief is that if those new consoles are priced right and their features are really relevant, than, Switch can indeed take a hit, as the largest chunk of it's userbase is made of those same consumers.

Switch didn't have an official price cut, but they had a Lite at 100$/€ less.



DélioPT said:
Mbolibombo said:

This is also ignoring a couple of factors. 

* Evergreens are system sellers - Games like MK and BotW has actually increased years after they release by year. They will keep selling systems for the reminder of Switch's lifespan. 

* Nintendo has one system rolling these days, comparing it to other generations when Nintendo had 2-3 systems producing games for doesnt make much sense.

* Not sure why questioning Nintendos ability to put out quality first party games is even a thing? They're gonna keep putting out quality software. 

* Switch doesnt offer the same thing as PS and Xbox which is why a new generation wont affect sales for the Switch. There's been multiple reports from NPD about Switch not replacing any other system but rather being an addition. That will continue to be true for next gen as well.

* Price cut. Switch has had no price cuts and is currently in it's 4th fiscal year. It's when the time comes going to be a way of keep pushing hardware.

No one in their right mind actually thought that the 3DS would exceed 100M 3+ years in to it's lifespan. So not sure why you are making this stuff up.

Nintendo always had evergreens.
Even the Wii had monstruous evergreen titles, but that didn't - and doesn't - mean that it's enough. As soon as Nintendo stopped having major titles for Wii, or even other consoles, sales went down. Why? Because Nintendo consoles rely too much on Nintendo's SW. And when that doesn't work...

The question is not how many games Nintendo can produce or if they are great games.
The problem is that a quality game is not equal to system seller.
Since Wii, the only system seller Nintendo has made is Splatoon.

I didn't put in question quality, but "the quantity of 1st party system sellers".

Offering something different from PS5 or Series X might be a factor, but it may not be at the same time.
The data you mention suggests that only 30% of Switch owners don't own any other console. Which means that 70% have. And that is where the problem lies: there's a high risk that if PS5 and Series X are that attractive, PS4 and XB1 users will decide to buy it instead of a Switch.

Simplifying, a secondary console might not be a problem now but that is because those Sony and MS consumers have no other real option and if they want something more, for a 300$ and less, Switch is a good investment.
My belief is that if those new consoles are priced right and their features are really relevant, than, Switch can indeed take a hit, as the largest chunk of it's userbase is made of those same consumers.

Switch didn't have an official price cut, but they had a Lite at 100$/€ less.

Wii's marketing strategy fade away pretty quickly and it wasn't a very loved console. There were also pretty much no games in the last years.

Switch on the other hand, has a totally different demographic. Top sellers aren't only family titles but things like Botw are going to sell 20+ millions.

Sure, 70% of the install base own another console. But what tells you they might just stick with the Switch if Nintendo is aggressive enought with a new model and big titles ? What tells you the new consoles won't be under 450/500$ and people right now don't really have the money for that ? What even tells you the lineup for these new consoles won't get delayed and the first year won't be lackluster ? Switch was out in PS4's peak but PS4 owners were still buying a Switch. Not everyone buys a console at the same time. And the numbers for software the Switch is producing shows that people really love the console and want to invest in it. It is selling faster than the PS4 after all....

Not saying the next gen won't affect it at all, but i'm really not expecting a huge it. Demand for the Switch is at it's peak right now and many gamers are well aware the PS5 is a thing and even more the Series X that literally got shown. 

And for the lite, we saw before the pandemic that people still higly prefer the classic Switch they just wanted one that much they had to go with a lite cause the other one was out of stock. Nothing says these won't go and buy a classic model later on too.

By the way, there was a pretty significant boost last year for the "new" switch classic with more battery life while it literally wasn't even advertised and only had 1h more battery. Really shows there is multiple ways for Nintendo to push the console like a pro model of sort. A price cut would be huge and never a system didn't get one before it's fourth year, it's just insane.   

There is a report Nintendo expected it to sell 110 millions, so i'm sure it means they plan a long lifecycle for it (hints of why it doesn't have any cuts)  and probably other sku on the way. At the end of the year it should hit pass the 70 millions mark if Nintendo does the bare minimum but i'm sure they will get pretty aggressive now. We're entering the second part of it's life and it should be about system diversity and aggressive pricing. 



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If COVID keeps up it’ll sell 200 million.



How much would $450/$500 next-gen consoles, with who knows how many games that could be released on/around launch, would affect a $300/$200 console with an evolving library? Then you have to consider the economic landscape of our world, especially in the US. Not everyone is gonna get back on their feet right away and invest on new hardware with premium prices.

Then, you also have to consider that the Switch did really well in 2017-18, which some would consider part of the PS4's peak years, even as an older console. The Switch is doing incredibly well, especially in Japan, in which I doubt will cease even when the next-gen consoles release in that particular country. Even with the releases of Doom Eternal, Persona 5 Royal, and Final Fantasy VII remake, Animal Crossing: New Horizons has garnered a huge following and interest through social media and the like.

I think Switch will be either really close or pass 100 million. However, I think 2020 will be interesting because who knows if any of Nintendo's upcoming projects that have not been announced yet (or ones like BotW2 and Metroid Prime 4) are affected by COVID-19, whether it be in terms of release dates or having people develop games efficiently and on-time while out of the offices. Sakurai said the Smash Ultimate Fighters Pass Vol. 2 has been affected by the virus, and that's just DLC. Even Sony's The Last of Us Part II was delayed indefinitely. So who knows how things will pan out this year.

Last edited by Kai_Mao - on 15 April 2020

hunter_alien said:
Ka-pi96 said:
They also don't know that DS and Gameboy are consoles so I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt. You can't trust the word of fools.

+ the PS1.... one of the worst "reports" I have read in a while. It's obvious they have no clue how the industry works in general. 

And yet they charge $2000 for a report on the industry. Per console, I might add.

Seriously, the have a detailed outlook until 2022 in there: https://www.dfcint.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/nintendoswitchcover-april18.pdf (just the table of contents, of course)

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 15 April 2020

It was an article seven months ago.
Thank you.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
It was an article seven months ago.
Thank you.

Still, the painting was on the wall even back then.

The only way they could have gotten to that conclusion is having taken the slowdown in July and August at face value and not understanding that people were just waiting for the new, upgraded model, and took it as a slowdown in interest for the console instead.