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DélioPT said:
Mbolibombo said:

This is also ignoring a couple of factors. 

* Evergreens are system sellers - Games like MK and BotW has actually increased years after they release by year. They will keep selling systems for the reminder of Switch's lifespan. 

* Nintendo has one system rolling these days, comparing it to other generations when Nintendo had 2-3 systems producing games for doesnt make much sense.

* Not sure why questioning Nintendos ability to put out quality first party games is even a thing? They're gonna keep putting out quality software. 

* Switch doesnt offer the same thing as PS and Xbox which is why a new generation wont affect sales for the Switch. There's been multiple reports from NPD about Switch not replacing any other system but rather being an addition. That will continue to be true for next gen as well.

* Price cut. Switch has had no price cuts and is currently in it's 4th fiscal year. It's when the time comes going to be a way of keep pushing hardware.

No one in their right mind actually thought that the 3DS would exceed 100M 3+ years in to it's lifespan. So not sure why you are making this stuff up.

Nintendo always had evergreens.
Even the Wii had monstruous evergreen titles, but that didn't - and doesn't - mean that it's enough. As soon as Nintendo stopped having major titles for Wii, or even other consoles, sales went down. Why? Because Nintendo consoles rely too much on Nintendo's SW. And when that doesn't work...

The question is not how many games Nintendo can produce or if they are great games.
The problem is that a quality game is not equal to system seller.
Since Wii, the only system seller Nintendo has made is Splatoon.

I didn't put in question quality, but "the quantity of 1st party system sellers".

Offering something different from PS5 or Series X might be a factor, but it may not be at the same time.
The data you mention suggests that only 30% of Switch owners don't own any other console. Which means that 70% have. And that is where the problem lies: there's a high risk that if PS5 and Series X are that attractive, PS4 and XB1 users will decide to buy it instead of a Switch.

Simplifying, a secondary console might not be a problem now but that is because those Sony and MS consumers have no other real option and if they want something more, for a 300$ and less, Switch is a good investment.
My belief is that if those new consoles are priced right and their features are really relevant, than, Switch can indeed take a hit, as the largest chunk of it's userbase is made of those same consumers.

Switch didn't have an official price cut, but they had a Lite at 100$/€ less.

Wii's marketing strategy fade away pretty quickly and it wasn't a very loved console. There were also pretty much no games in the last years.

Switch on the other hand, has a totally different demographic. Top sellers aren't only family titles but things like Botw are going to sell 20+ millions.

Sure, 70% of the install base own another console. But what tells you they might just stick with the Switch if Nintendo is aggressive enought with a new model and big titles ? What tells you the new consoles won't be under 450/500$ and people right now don't really have the money for that ? What even tells you the lineup for these new consoles won't get delayed and the first year won't be lackluster ? Switch was out in PS4's peak but PS4 owners were still buying a Switch. Not everyone buys a console at the same time. And the numbers for software the Switch is producing shows that people really love the console and want to invest in it. It is selling faster than the PS4 after all....

Not saying the next gen won't affect it at all, but i'm really not expecting a huge it. Demand for the Switch is at it's peak right now and many gamers are well aware the PS5 is a thing and even more the Series X that literally got shown. 

And for the lite, we saw before the pandemic that people still higly prefer the classic Switch they just wanted one that much they had to go with a lite cause the other one was out of stock. Nothing says these won't go and buy a classic model later on too.

By the way, there was a pretty significant boost last year for the "new" switch classic with more battery life while it literally wasn't even advertised and only had 1h more battery. Really shows there is multiple ways for Nintendo to push the console like a pro model of sort. A price cut would be huge and never a system didn't get one before it's fourth year, it's just insane.   

There is a report Nintendo expected it to sell 110 millions, so i'm sure it means they plan a long lifecycle for it (hints of why it doesn't have any cuts)  and probably other sku on the way. At the end of the year it should hit pass the 70 millions mark if Nintendo does the bare minimum but i'm sure they will get pretty aggressive now. We're entering the second part of it's life and it should be about system diversity and aggressive pricing.