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Mbolibombo said:
DélioPT said:
Nintendo has two BIG obstacles to overcome if they want Switch to really go that far: competition and system sellers.

We have no idea how people are going to react and transition to next gen.
Last time, transition was faster than some believed. But now, it's still too soon to know how this will go.
Maybe these new consoles will be even more attractive than we think, after they are 100% revealed.

Nintendo has sold more than 53 million based on a few important factors: portability and quality/quantity of 1st party games.
Whilst portability won't go away, the quantity of 1st party system sellers, might.
Most, if not all, Nintendo system sellers are already out. And even if sequels are released, it is not common for sequels to have the same impact or even sell as much as the original titles.
So, the question is: on a system that heavily relies on Nintendo's own games, can Nintendo bring new titles that can carry the console onward - specially when new consoles are arriving? Consoles like Gamecube, Wii and Wii U show that this is not the case.

This is also ignoring a couple of factors. 

* Evergreens are system sellers - Games like MK and BotW has actually increased years after they release by year. They will keep selling systems for the reminder of Switch's lifespan. 

* Nintendo has one system rolling these days, comparing it to other generations when Nintendo had 2-3 systems producing games for doesnt make much sense.

* Not sure why questioning Nintendos ability to put out quality first party games is even a thing? They're gonna keep putting out quality software. 

* Switch doesnt offer the same thing as PS and Xbox which is why a new generation wont affect sales for the Switch. There's been multiple reports from NPD about Switch not replacing any other system but rather being an addition. That will continue to be true for next gen as well.

* Price cut. Switch has had no price cuts and is currently in it's 4th fiscal year. It's when the time comes going to be a way of keep pushing hardware.

Evilms said:
Remember the 3Ds were supposed to exceed 100m but in the end they didn't make it.

No one in their right mind actually thought that the 3DS would exceed 100M 3+ years in to it's lifespan. So not sure why you are making this stuff up.

Nintendo always had evergreens.
Even the Wii had monstruous evergreen titles, but that didn't - and doesn't - mean that it's enough. As soon as Nintendo stopped having major titles for Wii, or even other consoles, sales went down. Why? Because Nintendo consoles rely too much on Nintendo's SW. And when that doesn't work...

The question is not how many games Nintendo can produce or if they are great games.
The problem is that a quality game is not equal to system seller.
Since Wii, the only system seller Nintendo has made is Splatoon.

I didn't put in question quality, but "the quantity of 1st party system sellers".

Offering something different from PS5 or Series X might be a factor, but it may not be at the same time.
The data you mention suggests that only 30% of Switch owners don't own any other console. Which means that 70% have. And that is where the problem lies: there's a high risk that if PS5 and Series X are that attractive, PS4 and XB1 users will decide to buy it instead of a Switch.

Simplifying, a secondary console might not be a problem now but that is because those Sony and MS consumers have no other real option and if they want something more, for a 300$ and less, Switch is a good investment.
My belief is that if those new consoles are priced right and their features are really relevant, than, Switch can indeed take a hit, as the largest chunk of it's userbase is made of those same consumers.

Switch didn't have an official price cut, but they had a Lite at 100$/€ less.