Mostly right but wrong on one very important point.

If Trump wins those five states plus Wisconsin, and Biden holds his lead in Pennsylvania, then that would be 268-268. But, the more likely scenario would be Biden keeping Wisconsin and losing Pennsylvania, where his lead is slightly smaller (why I don't know). Where Trump would win. But, it's close enough that either scenario would happen.

But, we still have the two teensy districts, ME-2nd and NE-2nd. Those are both interesting districts, because Nebraska is a very red state, but the 2nd district leans more democratic. Trump won it by 2 points in 2016 compared to 25 statewide. ME-2 is the opposite, a red leaning district in a generally blue state. Trump won ME-2 by a small margin despite losing the state, I don't know exactly how much.

So, in that red Penn blue Wis scenario, either candidate can score a clean victory by taking those two toss up districts. Biden is currently leading in both, but since they're so small there's not a ton of polling. Nebraska 2 is expected to go to Biden, so there's even less than in Maine-2 which is expected to be competitive. Biden's up by 2.5 and 1% in those districts respectively.

If they split it though... Trump wins. That's where you're wrong.

While the House does wind up picking the election, they don't vote individually, they vote by state delegation. Which is the electoral college on steroids. Alaska's congressmen have equal power to California's, which is obviously fucked (although hey, that's how the senate works). Either candidate would need to win 26 delegations. Currently republicans control 26 delegations, which could change in the election but probably won't.

So... assuming they all vote on party lines, then Trump wins. Even if they vote according to the popular vote of their states, then Trump wins. There's all sorts of other legal shenanigans that can play out, but for simplicity's sake, a tie is a Trump victory.   

It's an unlikely scenario, but it could happen. Also, keep in mind that if a decisive state is within .5% that triggers a recount. So it's possible that we'd have a lot of legal challenges going on. It'd be a pretty bad scenario. Whichever way it went, each side would accuse the other or stealing the election (which may happen anyway, but in that case there may be a valid point on each side).

How long will this myth be perpetuated?

By the time of the election, Hillary was only leading nationally by about 2-3%. And guess what, that's also by how much she won the popular vote. And bar one, all of the swing states that Trump won he was also very competitive or even straight-up leading in those states. 

Biden's lead over Trump is very different to the one of Hillary had over Trump. Not only is it larger in general, Trump is being decisively beaten in a number of states he carried 4 years ago.

Also, trump retracting ads from swing states is never a good sign: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_l5WSKGlbVg

People are very results oriented. They tend to focus on correct and incorrect rather than how correct one was or why. 

It's kind of like a coworker who used to argue that Eli Manning was better than Peyton Manning because he had more superbowl wins (before Peyton won his second which was actually won despite his terrible play).

The polls in Texas actually were further off than the polls in Pennsylvania. Yet, nobody really cared because the end result was correct. 

The polling data was undeniably wrong in the rust belt in 2016, but that doesn't mean polls in 2020 become completely worthless. We have to look at why they were wrong. And we have a pretty good idea. Lots of undecided voters, bad last minute news for Clinton, higher turnout among non-college educated whites, and good old fashioned margin of error. Looking at these factors we can tell that a similar error in 2020 is pretty unlikely, since pollsters have adjusted their models, Trump is not winning by as much among whites without degrees, and voters seem much more likely to have locked in their votes. 

To the extent that polling numbers are off, it's more likely to be due to mail in voting. That's not to imply anything nefarious will go on, but it could mean turnout numbers will be wrong. This could be in the favor of Biden if greater awareness, use, and accessibility of mail in ballots leads to more voters. It could also cut the other way. If a large number of mail in votes are not counted due to being filled out or mailed improperly, it could help Trump.

There is also the issue of ballots being counted in time. Democrats are pushing to extend the amount of time (which seems logical in light of a global pandemic) whereas Republicans are trying to deny that. 

Only one new set of polls today, but it's a big one.
Washingtonpost (rated A+) released a polls showing, under two different turnout models, a 6 or 10 point lead for Biden. 6 with third parties, 10 without it.

That's pretty substantial, and while some polls have showed that kind of a lead, none of them have been from sources this big. Also worth noting is that when third parties are incorporated, 99% of voters had picked a candidate. That's insane. This time last year around 10% of voters were still undecided. If this is accurate, then the race is less volatile, as voters would have to actually switch over. Maybe some Jorgenson voters could be swayed over, (third parties tend to fizzle as the election comes closer), but winning Biden voters over seems unlikely at this point.

Top rated pollsters are disagreeing though, not so much on the national level but on a state level. What is interesting is the difference between registered voter polls and likely voters polls. Some polls seem to be predicting that Trump will have significantly higher turnout that Biden. For instance, Monmouth's last poll of Florida has Biden at a 1% lead among registered voters but at a 4% deficit among likely voters. Wapo on the other hand has a 5% lead among registered voters and a 4% lead among likely voters. Marist shows a 1% lead for Trump among registered voters, but shows it even among likely voters.

Depending on how each candidate can do at getting their base out to the ballot box, or the mailbox as the case may be, can be the difference between a very close race, and a landslide victory. And... this is probably where money comes in.

In today's environment, I don't think money is going to change the minds of voters. If you put me in a room and showed me Trump ads for 24 straight hours, I would not vote for Trump. I'm sure most of his supporters would say the same in reverse. But, could ads convince someone who supported a candidate but not enough to get off of their ass to actually get off of their ass? Yeah. I think they could.

Bottom line though is that while those who follow politics have been saying for months the race would tighten up... that doesn't seem to be happening. And, the election isn't coming in a month, the election is happening right now, with ballots already being mailed in. If the race is actually this close on election day, then even assuming that the national results are as far off as 2016, Biden wins the national vote by 3 times more than Hillary does. It's hard to see that happening without the states Trump won by less than 1% flipping, which would lead to a loss.

I will try to catch it live although I'm a few hours ahead, I'm really curious to see the debate of the ancient elderly. Gosh, US deserved something better than this. 

Sienna/NYTimes comes to a similar conclusion as Washington Post, and has Biden at an 8 point lead. The times however shows much fewer undecided voters, and much less third party support. That would give Trump more of an ability to catch up.

In statewide polls, TIPP has Biden up by 5 in Pennsylvania, slightly above other polls. Marist has him up by 10 in Wisconsin, and 8 in Michigan. If true, no bueno for Trump.

The center for American Greatness has Biden up by 1 in Nevada. I'll let you decide for yourselves how much credence you want to give them.

Biden continues to do well in the states that were within 1% in 2016 and will flip the election if Biden wins them and in the national average.

Also, a poll conducted in California shows that Biden is up by 34% there. So, if anyone thought that Trump would win in California... probably not.

About time someone else pointed this out. The polls at the tail end of the election had Trump very much within the margin of error in virtually all of the tossup states and Hillary's national lead dwindling to a 2-3 point lead, also within the margin of error which, SPOILER: she won the popular vote by.

Not so this time around. He's losing fairly comfortably in all the tossup states and by 7% to Biden this time around nationally. The current polls paint a VERY different picture to the ones at the end of the 2016 election, so all this "TROLOL, the polls were way wrong in 2016" diatribe is not only way off, it's comparing apples to oranges. I'd be somewhat shocked if Florida went Trump after he effectively crashed their hospital system with Covid cases, it was he who told them to continue their business in the middle of a pandemic after all. In fact, he said it affects virtually nobody.

Oh and in the latest Trump bombshell, his tax returns have finally been revealed. To no one's shock, he's a tax-evading fraud with years of losses.

I agree that the polling is different from 2016. The only factors that *might* give Trump an advantage are the ongoing pandemic (reportedly democrats are more cautious and might avoid going to the voting station) and the republicans trying to invalidate vote by mail (again, democrats are reported to use that more).

Lol, only $750 in taxes per year in 2016 and 2017.

On the other hand, $70k for hair salon expenses...

And he's saying he didn't release the tax returns for all this time because he's under audit, same excuse he used almost 4 years ago. He doesn't seem to understand that he's not helping his case with this. People are being investigated for roughly one year for a big tax offense, so imagine how colossal the tax evasion would need to be to be investigated 4 years straight...

Just to come back to the election itself, looks like it's increasingly likely that the democrats will also flip the senate.

While the Republicans will flip Alabama as was widely expected, they are losing several other states: Colorado, Maine, North Carolina and the special election in Arizona are all likely getting flipped over to Democrats, with Iowa, Georgia (the regular election, not the special) and Montana all still being in tossup territory. And while Montana and Georgia still titling towards Republicans, the same ain't true for Iowa anymore.

This would result in at best a 50-50 split for the Republicans, and at worst they could lose up to 6 states in total, which would be a catastrophic outcome for the GOP.

@SpokenTruth : You can add Kamala Harris as Biden's VP pick in the OP. Looks a bit empty without it...

Here's a little résumée of what Trump did so far during his presidency:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NX-DdOUlcqs&pp=wgIECgIIAQ==

Funny how things go there...

Edit: And this one here too, comparing his promises to his actions:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jdH8ak294M

You're welcome!