Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Runa216 said:
JWeinCom said:

Not only can he stand in the middle of fifth avenue and shoot people, he can also lie to people about a coming plague and not lose any voters.

I honestly think this should be considered criminal behavior. You can't scream fire in a crowded theater if there's no fire. By the same token, you shouldn't be able to scream "no fire" when there actually is a fire. 

This is a false statement made with knowledge of its falsity that has undoubtedly caused harm and death. It is not protected by the first amendment. He should be jailed, and there should be a deluge of civil lawsuits. 

Of course, there is a question of presidential immunity...

Sadly true, and the reason I'm genuinely worried he'll make another term. Despite all he's done - nay, likely BECAUSE of his 'brazen attitude' - people still support him.

Best part is that Fox News had an article trying to shift the blame and asking if Woodward should be liable for withholding Trump's statements from the public. Somehow an author is responsible for reporting the information that the President knew, but the President isn't. That's a gold medal performance in mental gymnastics.



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JWeinCom said:
Runa216 said:

Sadly true, and the reason I'm genuinely worried he'll make another term. Despite all he's done - nay, likely BECAUSE of his 'brazen attitude' - people still support him.

Best part is that Fox News had an article trying to shift the blame and asking if Woodward should be liable for withholding Trump's statements from the public. Somehow an author is responsible for reporting the information that the President knew, but the President isn't. That's a gold medal performance in mental gymnastics.

Gross. Just gross. How the hell are Fox News allowed to call themselves news? Could they tongue Trump's asshole any deeper? Theor oral tendrils might as well be hentai tentacles. 



Today is the 19th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. I've spent most of it in tears. You know why? Because I never thought I'd live to see the day when I looked back on such an anniversary nostalgically. Here we are though. "What's with that", you ask? The September 11th attacks of 2001 formed a national crisis that brought us together as a nation!! When I look at America today, I see us in crisis now too...but I don't see unity anymore. Instead, I see a nation on the verge of civil war.

In response to the 9/11 attacks, say what you will about these efforts, but we used our military to attack our enemies. Today, we instead use our military to attack each other! The army gets deployed on our streets here at home to quell social discontent. By a president who, as we have recently learned with more clarity than ever, hates our troops!! (They deserved to die, you know? Pssh, suckers!) Remember when we were one nation? Remember when we used to stand up for ourselves against our enemies instead of defending them when they help murder our soldiers? (Haha, losers!) Remember when national crises brought us together instead of being used to tear us apart and turn us against our allies and against each other? Remember when we were America?!

I disown this America. This isn't my country. My country is the one my dad fought for, and he wasn't a worthless loser, he was a patriot who believed in concepts like honor and duty that the current occupant of the Oval Office could never begin to understand or dream of living up to in a million years. He was drafted to serve in Vietnam, but he didn't make up shit about "bone spurs", he did his duty whether or not he believed in the mission. He never really recovered either physically or psychologically and those of us who loved him paid the price. That's what his country did for him, but he never stopped believing in it anyway. That's what honor looks like! What a loser, amirite? What a nation of grade-A SUUUUUUCKERROOOOONNIIIEEESSSS, HAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAAA!!! Funny, right?! It's HILARIOUS to kill people and then mock their corpses because they're just other Americans anyway! It's not like they're respectable hostile foreign dictators who hate us and everything we've ever stood for!

Gee, I wonder why our active-duty service members, normally a Republican bunch, seem to be leaning toward supporting Biden, the Democrat, in this election.

Talk me down. Somebody talk me down! I'm seriously struggling to control my rage right now.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 12 September 2020

Republicans are like the contents of a sandwich. Brought up on a farm, often a complete mess, and always in-bread.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Don Lemon is shocked that rioting (not protesting ) is affecting the polls negatively. 



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Well we're now past Labor Day, which is generally the point at which people start paying serious attention to elections in this country. So where are we as of this moment? As of today...

-Biden leads Trump by 7.5 percentage points (50.5% to 43%) in the moving average of polls according to Real Clear Politics.
-Biden leads Trump by 7.6 percentage points (50.5% to 42.9%) in the moving average of polls according to FiveThirtyEight.

This compares with a 7.1 and 7.3 percentage advantage for Biden in the same two polling averages respective a couple weeks ago. So, in other words, not much is really changing and, if anything is, it favors Biden. This contest appears to be pretty much set in stone.

Since the conventions, we've seen marginal increases in support for both Biden and Trump, indicating that undecided voters and those previously favoring third party or independent candidates are, unsurprisingly, starting to rally around one or the other of the major party candidates. That pattern will likely continue as we move closer to election day, as it always does. That's all that's really changed of late though. The issue for Trump continues to be the same: he keeps wanting to talk about urban crime and playing to white identity politics, but the public is way more concerned about the coronavirus pandemic, which has been the focus of Joe Biden's campaign.

Trump's only real hope at this point is the debates coming up starting at the end of this month. He badly needs for those to shift the narrative of this election away from himself somehow.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 12 September 2020

Jumpin said:
Republicans are like the contents of a sandwich. Brought up on a farm, often a complete mess, and always in-bread.

Criticize whatever party you like, but posts that are just pure attacks are not ok.



There's a lot of legitimate ways in which Trump can pull a win.

There's tightening polling in Pennsylvania, Biden weakness with Latinos in Florida and Nevada, Wisconsin questionable voting laws, Democrats are overwhelmingly choosing vote by mail, and Trump's aggressive push to flip Minnesota.

It's not over yet.



JWeinCom said:
Jumpin said:
Republicans are like the contents of a sandwich. Brought up on a farm, often a complete mess, and always in-bread.

Criticize whatever party you like, but posts that are just pure attacks are not ok.

Good advice for someone who's never met a farmer who generously hands out knuckle sandwiches. Only few today would be so kind.

Gotta admit, the joke surprisingly has a bit of wit, even if it's too far beyond a tac for tit. It's progress however, of sorts.

Letterkenny training. Highly recommended. Clears up all the politically incorrect misconceptions.



New polls have the race staying at the status quo, which is good news for Biden who is leading.

A couple of interesting tidbits. Polls in Ohio are strange with Rasmussen and Zogby, both of which tend to favor Trump, having Biden up by 4 and 2 respectively. Meanwhile, morning consult has Trump up by about 5. So, Ohio is strange. High rated pollsters have not done any there in a little while so it's hard to get a sense of the race. Ohio is a must win for Trump. For Biden, it doesn't matter all too much at this point. Biden would only really need Ohio if he lost Pennsylvania, and it's hard to foresee a scenario where Biden wins Ohio but loses Pennsylvania.

Biden's leads in New Hampshire and Nevada are looking a little thin. NYT has him up by only 3 in NH. This was a state Hillary won by less than a percent in 2016. In Nevada, Times has Biden up by 4. That's more than Hillary at this time, who wound up winning the state by about 2%. If Biden lost these two states it would give him less wiggle room in the rust belt states.

The good news for Biden though has less to do with how much he's up, and more to do with how many voters are decided. According to the latest Fox News poll, Biden is up by 5 with 97% of the vote accounted for. Monmouth University also has 97% of the vote accounted for, with Biden up by 7. Around this time last year, Monmouth showed that about 92% of voters were decided. On election day, the times had 91% of voters decided and Fox had 95. This trend also holds up on a state level. For instance in Pennsylvania, on election day, the polls showed about 92-93% of people had decided. Polls being conducted now in Pennsylvania show about 96% of voters have decided.

So, that leads to two conclusions. First, there's a bit of a less chance of a last minute shift. In 2016 there were enough undecided voters that if they broke for Trump, they could have tipped the scales, even if the polls were accurate. Last minute news bad news from Clinton didn't help. However, this time around there are far less undecided voters. If Fox's poll is right, it wouldn't matter if every undecided voter decided on Trump, it wouldn't be enough. Trump has to actually change the minds of Biden voters.

And honestly... that doesn't seem likely. After four years of Trump, it's hard to see a huge amount of people changing their mind on him, absent a huge scandal rocking the Biden campaign. And... that doesn't seem likely either. Protests/riots haven't seemed to shift public opinion and I'm not sure a vaccine would either. Meanwhile, a lot of people with dirt on Trump are deciding to air it now (there's no better time to sell a book). The best hope for Trump is that the polls are really really inaccurate.

Edit: A more detailed analysis of Monmouth's University's latest poll seems to bear out my theories. 

In regards to Trump, 37% say they are certain they'll vote for Trump, and 1% say they're very likely to. 50% say they are not at all likely to vote Trump. In regards to Biden, 43% say they are certain, 4% very likely, and 40% say they're not at all likely. About 7% for each candidate say they're somewhat likely. The interesting thing is that the "not at all likely" number has not shifted much for either candidate. 

Trump needs to nationally get to within about 3 to have a chance in the electoral college. He has 38% of solid votes to Biden's 47%. About 1% say they probably won't vote (surely more will not). Then there's about 14% who are wishy washy but leaning towards one candidate. If we assume that Trump takes 60% of that wishy washy group, and the rest vote as expected that would lead to 46.4 for Trump and 52.6 for Biden. If the national numbers turn out like that it is exceedingly unlikely that Trump will win in the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% and Trump won by about 1% in Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Hard to imagine the national numbers shifting that much and none of the change being felt in any swing states.

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 14 September 2020