The final polling average had Clinton at 48.5% of the popular vote, and Trump at 44.9. The actual results were 48.5 to 46.4 . So they were off by 1.5% which is within the margin of error. 

A key difference this time around is that Biden is at 51.4% of the popular vote with Trump at 42.1% (fivethirtyeight average). If you're claiming that it's closer to 50-50, you're actually proposing that the polls are WAY less accurate than they were in 2016. They would have to be undercounting conservatives by 7.1% (more than 4x the amount they undercounted them in 2016). And, they'd have to be overcounting Biden voters by 1.4% which is possible, but they were bang on in 2016 with that. Overally, we're talking about polls being off on total by 8.6%. So, the polling data would have to be getting much worse, whereas intuition would tell you they'd have learned something from 2016. Even if they're undercounting Trump supporters, if 51.4% is accurate for Biden, a Trump victory is very unlikely.

Also, Fivethirtyeight's popular vote on that page is not strictly based on polling data but it also incorporates trends. The current polling data has Biden at 49.6 and Trump at 43.7. So, their model is already predicting that the race will be closer than the current polling indicates.

Of course, this is with the caveat that things can change between now and November and blah blah blah.

It really is quite the sight to see Trump using a naturalization video as a political prop after he essentially tore down and sabotaged the immigration system and implemented some of the cruelest policies with his architect, Stephen Miller.

Well he used a video about coronavirus that claimed he took decisive action against it while the democrats downplayed the threat, so it shouldn't be too surprising at this point. 

My favorite though is the images of protests/riots that say this is Joe Biden's America... But he's showing videos of what's happening during his tenure. It's kind of an astounding logic.

Trevor with a nice little summary of how confused, contradictory, and disingenuous the messaging at the RNC has been (10:45). Bloody surreal.

https://youtu.be/QtJv0ZFtd6s?t=645

That was actually kinda funny. If I didnt dislike the guy so much I might have laughed.

I love how all these Republican speakers talk about the coronavirus in the past tense...while speaking to empty rooms because the coronavirus outbreak is totally under control! Totally...under...control! Thank goodness the president took such swift and decisive action or else we'd be miserable right now! Four..more..years! Four..more..years!

My personal favorite claim that's been made at the RNC so far is the claim that under President Trump America has achieved "the lowest unemployment in 50 years." Um...maybe on Earth 2 where they live the highest level of unemployment since the Great Depression can be somehow re-cast that way, but back here on Earth 1...

Well, in all seriousness, for those who haven't been around the block enough times yet to notice, these party conventions are obviously not intended to win detractors over. Their target audience is someone who normally votes for the party's candidates, but is perhaps on the fence and in need of some modest reassurance at the moment. They're about rallying the faithful to stop potentially decisive hemorrhaging around the edges. That's why I say that what the anti-Trump Republicans at the Lincoln Project are doing to counter-message the RNC is the most effective thing that can be done in Biden's favor this week.

The Lincoln Project, which is a group of Reaganite, anti-Trump Republicans, is running this ad...on Fox News...during the Republican convention this week. It's called Mourning in America, which is a play on one of the most famous and effective campaign ads in history: the 1984 Morning in America ad promoting Ronald Reagan's economic record. Especially compared to the wimpy ads the Biden campaign is running (here's an example I saw on TV just now), Mourning in America is extremely powerful stuff, and much of that power stems from the fact that no one is more qualified to run an anti-Trump play on that classic ad for Ronald Reagan than today's holdout Reaganists.

I've said it before that I wish the Biden campaign would let the Lincoln Project take just over Joe Biden's ad projects because they do a way better job of critiquing President Trump. This is another example of why I firmly maintain that opinion.

The only speech I wanted to see today was Joni Ernst.

Looks like she's going full Trump. I hope she goes down in November.

I'm not sure I agree. While I personally enjoy their ads, I think Biden needs to balance a message of positivity simultaneously, to avoid "only talking about Trump". The Lincoln Project can afford to do so because they are a force of anti-Trump conservatism more so than anything.

And he does have some harder hitting stuff that go on the offense: https://youtu.be/juz7iGN9Uxk

Yes, that 538 is describing in their methodology. The closer the election day comes, the bigger should Bidens advantage grow - *if* polls stay the same. But that is the point, the model just assumes things can change until then, and stuff like that happens. So it is the current prediction.

Actually the model does. In a way. It assumes, the final election results can differ from these polls. The bigger the difference, the more unlikely. But it goes in each direction. Also 538 considers something they call house effect for pollsters. This is how much a pollster is biased towards one side or another at average in the past elections. That bias is calculated into their average.