Nikki Haley is definitely setting up a Presidential run with the speech she gave.

The death toll? Its like 3 times worse than any other state. He also put infected people into nursing homes. Killing thousands.

Yep. Haley's speech felt completely off tonally from the rest of the bunch.

I'm skipping Don Jr, I just want to see what Tim Scott says.

Tim Scott is a good speaker with a compelling background, too bad his party does not represent any of the values he spoke about tonight.

Per capita NY is actually only second after NJ.

Also, you have to consider that when the numbers were spiking in in NY and surroundings, the US were woefully unprepared to the virus, having neither protective gear or ventilators since the companies and hospitals throughout the US sold their stocks to China to make a quick buck beforehand. Had it hit another city in another state instead, like Houston, New Orleans, San Francisco or Miami, the outcome would have been very similar early on due to the supply issues mentioned beforehand and potentially even much worse depending on how the governor would have handled the situation.

Interesting article but it doesnt say much. 

More importantbwould be understand how is biden vs hillary in the swing states especially those that tend to favour the democrats. Im especially interested in Pensilvanya, Florida and Michigan. 

You cant use nationwide pools to predict the election if most of this increase comes from California and NY for example.

Also we know that trump is probably around 2-4 points higher than the pools shows and a 48x52 result can still give trump a win. 

Yeah and you know who had to deal with it even earlier? Trump. The same guy Cuomo was praising to high heavens for helping him at the start. Then Cuomo made some bad decisions and now of course, in true democrat fashion, its all Trumps fault. He also says he works hard for the people of New York, yet has the time to write a book in the middle of a pandemic. 

Now Im not saying Trump has done a great job, but some people make it seem like he was the one that unleashed the damn virus upon America.

538 has again a pretty sophisticated model, which uses state polls and demographics to model the outcome in the states. It favors Biden over Trump with 73% to 27% for the whole electoral college. Let me remind you, that is similar to four years ago, 27% is still a significant chance for Trump.

For the states you mentioned:

• Pennsylvania: 74% to 26% for Biden, 52% to 47% popular vote
• Florida: 65% to 35% for Biden, 51% to 48% popular vote
• Michigan: 84% to 16% for Biden, 53% to 46% popular vote

You are right about the polling, in Florida you have a 48x51 polling and the model gives Trump just over a one in three chance there. So in three tries Trump wins once. That is far from impossible, it is a likely outcome (although a Biden win would still be a more likely outcome).

The model assumes the numbers could change in either direction before the election, while the final 538 prediction referred only to the 3 point average advantage Hillary had in polls right before election (she went on to win the popular vote by 2, as we all know).

If the numbers remain the same, or 538 had predicted based on the numbers we have now, it would be significantly higher than Hillary's.

The problem is those polls as far as I know do not capture the hidden conservative votes. This is why he won in 2016 and this is why we had brexit. We also might have other impacts such as poor people not going to vote despite being captured in the polls, people still undecided and the independant candidate vote. Considering this and what we saw in 2016, a 52x48 result to me seems more like a 50x50. Also lets not forget what happened in Michigan in 2016. Definitely Biden advantage now is higher than what Hilarry had but I dont think it is so much higher.