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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Pemalite said:

And? The clip is obviously satirical.

If you believe everything in it is gospel rather than have a laugh... Well...

So your points about that were also satirical and not serious?

What to believe seems to be a hot topic as of late. The truth is out there Scully.

Pemalite said:

I don't know what you are trying to say here.

Are you suggesting Trump should make a concerted effort to save as many lives as possible or shouldn't?

NZ has a tiny issue with covid in comparison to USA, yet delaying the election there makes sense to save lives, but since the USA has had it worse, regardless of the reasoning, they shouldn't bother delaying the election so even more people can die? I mean, why is NZ delaying the election if it isn't actually going to save more lives? The PM isn't a corrupt liar is she? Isn't what's good for one nation, good for all?

Once wrong always wrong? If at first you don't succeed, to hell with it?

Pemalite said:

Military skirmishes are one thing, you are protecting your nations interests... In saying that, I would like more countries to start minding their own business and protect their interests at home rather than projecting their "influence" across the planet like China, Russia and the USA in Africa, Middle East and Asia, but that's a topic for another day, my own nation isn't innocent on this either.

Neglecting the implementation of some basic measures to curb the spread of a virus, thus resulting in a direct correlation of increased deaths is negligent, incompetent and downright disgusting... Having a Superpower status just means you got less of an excuse NOT to do the right thing.

I agree, which Trump seems to be doing a much better job of overall in general. For a builder, he doesn't like blowing things up oddly.

Superpower doesn't mean better at everything. The reason America is so powerful is because of her military and oil backed currency. America protects her people with weapons more so than medicine. Maybe that can shift somewhat going forward, but it and the world has put that might to good use for the most part so far.

Not all nations share the same values, or hold the same values to the same weight. All it would take is another world war, and the western nations would soon forget about covid, praise the USA, and downplay it's death count. It's all relative, though that doesn't mean blind eyes to unnecessary death would ever be seen as acceptable. Just gotta do the best you can with what you got at the time.

Pemalite said: 

Not really relevant, I don't care if someone gets upset if someone they dislike gets elected, that's their problem, not mine.
Such statements come from both sides of the political divide anyway, meaning this point is ultimately redundant, little bit hypocritical if either side complains about this.

Trump has done *some* good and I will recognize that, being tougher on borders is a damn good thing, free-flow of people without the appropriate checks and balances is asking for trouble, more work still needs to be done on that front however, but it seems there is some positive movement on this front.

In saying that... It still doesn't make up for the blatant failure to take appropriate measures during the COVID mess, it's almost meme levels.

Sure, America could have done better. Don't know who thinks otherwise. Every nation has things it can and could plan ahead for, but doesn't always do so or doesn't always get it right. Some countries have massive problems with heat/drought and fire, but it's up to them to put more emphasis on doing better to combat those issues and everything they negatively impact.

Pemalite said:

Isn't that hypocritical? People wanted change, which is why Trump got elected.

Wasn't "Change" Obama's slogan? Trump and Obama both used change to get elected, Trumps just wasn't as obvious. We'll see what happens in the election, but if things don't change much in terms of peoples projected politics overall, I can't help but see some major geographical changes to America sooner than later. Avoiding a Europe type of split situation almost seems impossible right now, but we'll see if she comes together or tears herself apart.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 18 August 2020

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EnricoPallazzo said:
Best thing would be to postpone the elections but that would never be allowed because it would allow more time for the economy improve back and covid to disappear which would help trump.
As for mail voting, yeah I dont trust it at all but it is what it is. I just wonder if this wont cause a big delay in counting the votes.

If it gives time for Trump to turn things around, then that would be a good thing.

I think people place to much emphasis on who they like/don't like and not the actual results.
Absolutely no secret that I dislike Trump, he is a pig, but I also want him to do well because that benefits the American society, not going to let personal feelings get in the way of someone doing a good job.

EricHiggin said:

So your points about that were also satirical and not serious?

The video and my perspectives are two very different things, don't conflate the two as that would be a logical fallacy.

EricHiggin said:

What to believe seems to be a hot topic as of late. The truth is out there Scully.

The Truth is important, but it needs to be backed by science, not pseudo science, not opinions, not conspiracies.

EricHiggin said:

NZ has a tiny issue with covid in comparison to USA, yet delaying the election there makes sense to save lives, but since the USA has had it worse, regardless of the reasoning, they shouldn't bother delaying the election so even more people can die? I mean, why is NZ delaying the election if it isn't actually going to save more lives? The PM isn't a corrupt liar is she? Isn't what's good for one nation, good for all?

The United States does not get the right to pretend it knows "what is best" in regards to handling COVID or aspects related to COVID, the United States has fucked up after fuck up in managing the pandemic from start to finish, it's frankly a sick joke at this point. Millions fucking dead speaks for itself.

New Zealand has done the right thing from the absolute very start and the results absolutely speak for themselves in the basic black and white statistics, this cannot be refuted regardless of your political affiliation, don't let personal feelings get in the way of statistics and blatant facts.

If New Zealand believes delaying the election in order to preserve social distancing and lockdown measures is the right thing to do in order curb the spread of disease and thus death... Then who are we to argue? They have been on the money and made the right decisions from the very start so far, so let us see how it plays out, shall we?

The rest of your tangent... Again, I already blatantly outright stated I would support Trump in delaying an election if it meant saving lives, did you not read my prior post or only the parts you wanted to read?

Either way, you failed to answer my question and that was... Should Trump save as many lives as possible or shouldn't he?

EricHiggin said:

I agree, which Trump seems to be doing a much better job of overall in general. For a builder, he doesn't like blowing things up oddly.

Superpower doesn't mean better at everything. The reason America is so powerful is because of her military and oil backed currency. America protects her people with weapons more so than medicine. Maybe that can shift somewhat going forward, but it and the world has put that might to good use for the most part so far.

Not all nations share the same values, or hold the same values to the same weight. All it would take is another world war, and the western nations would soon forget about covid, praise the USA, and downplay it's death count. It's all relative, though that doesn't mean blind eyes to unnecessary death would ever be seen as acceptable. Just gotta do the best you can with what you got at the time.

Clearly doesn't like building walls either, which Trump built an election campaign around. Fences.
You need secure borders. Every country does... Luckily for us we are surrounded by sea which is a natural border so it's less of an issue.

Clearly being a super power doesn't mean you are good at everything... Your standard of living is lower, you have lower minimum wages, your health system is an overpriced joke, your education system is overpriced, your infrastructure is barely maintained... Can't even manage a Pandemic... I could go on.

No longer is the United States the shining example for all other nations to aspire towards like during the 60's and 70's when the space race was on... Now the world watches to see what stupid shit Trump says or does next so we can all laugh about it while we buy stuff from China... Which ironically if there isn't some fundamental changes on the world stage is set to overtake the USA as the most powerful nation.

Hopefully COVID is that push for change away from China... But the USA won't ever be the manufacturing hub again, maybe India, Brazil or Vietnam?


EricHiggin said:

Sure, America could have done better. Don't know who thinks otherwise. Every nation has things it can and could plan ahead for, but doesn't always do so or doesn't always get it right. Some countries have massive problems with heat/drought and fire, but it's up to them to put more emphasis on doing better to combat those issues and everything they negatively impact.

Drought and Bushfire are influenced be El-Nino, El-Nina and in large part... Climate Change.
And we are doing better every year, we are always learning and improving.

Those issues are here to stay, especially as Climate Change continues to progress.

EricHiggin said:

Wasn't "Change" Obama's slogan? Trump and Obama both used change to get elected, Trumps just wasn't as obvious. We'll see what happens in the election, but if things don't change much in terms of peoples projected politics overall, I can't help but see some major geographical changes to America sooner than later. Avoiding a Europe type of split situation almost seems impossible right now, but we'll see if she comes together or tears herself apart.

Trump was obvious.
"Drain the Swamp" is a big change. - Ironically he did drain the swamp, but then filled it up twice as high.

He just hasn't lived up to most of his promises, which is sad as he has a mandate for them.



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Pemalite said:
EnricoPallazzo said:
Best thing would be to postpone the elections but that would never be allowed because it would allow more time for the economy improve back and covid to disappear which would help trump.
As for mail voting, yeah I dont trust it at all but it is what it is. I just wonder if this wont cause a big delay in counting the votes.

If it gives time for Trump to turn things around, then that would be a good thing.

I think people place to much emphasis on who they like/don't like and not the actual results.
Absolutely no secret that I dislike Trump, he is a pig, but I also want him to do well because that benefits the American society, not going to let personal feelings get in the way of someone doing a good job.

I agree, I believe the election should be postponed and to be honest I think other things should change in the electoral system in US anyway, but the fact is that it would never be postponed because it helps trump, therefore mail voting which I believe is a terrible idea and will create a lot of trouble especially if the election is defined by a few thousand votes on a certain state.

As for Trump yeah he is a pig and a terrible example of human being and it is a shame that the most powerful nation in the world and de facto world leaders have such a joke as president. USA president should be more than that, he should be a person that brings out the best in people and not the worst. But the fact is I agree with him on several political views (except his views on global warming and covid) and it seems that, for the people that voted for him, he is fulfilling a few of his promises like curbing mass illegal immigration, facing china and defending US workers and improving the economy.

I just think he could achieve the same results without being a horrible person.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

Thanks, I think one interesting exercise would be to take a look at the pools in those swing states before the election in 2016 vs the final the result to check how far off they were (if they were). I might do it later, really curious about it.

Now you made me curious too

So I got some info from wikipedia. Take it with a grain of salt as I dont know if it covers all polls. Also I suck at building tables and formatting, deal with it

I used only the pools from the last month before the election but if you go there you can find older polls.

Florida:

October 25–27, 2016: Hillary 45% Trump 48%

October 31, 2016: Hillary 51% Trump 49%

October 27 – November 1, 2016: Hillary 47% Trump 45%

October 27 – November 1, 2016: Hillary 50% Trump 49%

November 3–6, 2016: Hillary 46% Trump 46%

Average last 5 polls: Hillary 47.5% Trump 47.4%

Final Result: Hillary 47.8% Trump 49.0%

So for Florida it seems the final result was inside the margin of error (around 3 points) but the pools before october were all over the place with Hillary winning by 8 point up to trump winning by 3 at certain points. Pretty crazy but what I found weird is that I always heard that Trump victory in Florida was a big surprise but actually looking at the pools it wasnt surprise at all.

Michigan:

October 31, 2016: Hillary 51% Trump 42%

November 1, 2016: Hillary 51% Trump 45%

November 2, 2016: Hillary 49% Trump 44%

November 3, 2016: Hillary 51% Trump 46%

November 3–4, 2016: Hillary 50% Trump 45%

Average last 5 polls: Hillary 50.4% Trump 44.4%

Final Result: Hillary 47.3% Trump 47.5%

Wow I dont even know what to say, that was huge. Also the difference was only 10k votes. Maybe democrats thought it was already won and decided not to vote? Black communities ashamed of saying they were supporting trump? Or maybe black communities with less access and time to go voting? Dont know but that result was far off from the polls results.



Pemalite said:
KLXVER said:

People just want things to go back to normal. Where they rely on China for everything. Companies can spy on you. Politicians can go back to lying without consequences and Hollywood can start touching people again.

Trump is ruining their good old way of life. 

Isn't that hypocritical? People wanted change, which is why Trump got elected.

Half the country wanted change. They got it. The other half is the one that want Trump gone no matter what. Well about 60% of them just doesnt like Trump. The other 40% just wants America to burn. So many crazy things going on in the world today and all the media can talk about is how bad Trump is and whatever subject they have chosen to attack him with that day.

So many big companies, news networks, other politicians, other countries and of course Hollywood hates Trump. Hes bad for business. Hes not the smartest guy in the world, but he does make people think and questioning certain things more. And its harder to make money off of informed people. They need people to stay as ignorant as possible. So you can see why people are a bit worried that the election might not be fair. Not saying it wont be, but there are A LOT of powerful people who want him gone.  

Last edited by KLXVER - on 18 August 2020

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EnricoPallazzo said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Now you made me curious too

So I got some info from wikipedia. Take it with a grain of salt as I dont know if it covers all polls. Also I suck at building tables and formatting, deal with it

I used only the pools from the last month before the election but if you go there you can find older polls.

Florida:

October 25–27, 2016: Hillary 45% Trump 48%

October 31, 2016: Hillary 51% Trump 49%

October 27 – November 1, 2016: Hillary 47% Trump 45%

October 27 – November 1, 2016: Hillary 50% Trump 49%

November 3–6, 2016: Hillary 46% Trump 46%

Average last 5 polls: Hillary 47.5% Trump 47.4%

Final Result: Hillary 47.8% Trump 49.0%

So for Florida it seems the final result was inside the margin of error (around 3 points) but the pools before october were all over the place with Hillary winning by 8 point up to trump winning by 3 at certain points. Pretty crazy but what I found weird is that I always heard that Trump victory in Florida was a big surprise but actually looking at the pools it wasnt surprise at all.

Michigan:

October 31, 2016: Hillary 51% Trump 42%

November 1, 2016: Hillary 51% Trump 45%

November 2, 2016: Hillary 49% Trump 44%

November 3, 2016: Hillary 51% Trump 46%

November 3–4, 2016: Hillary 50% Trump 45%

Average last 5 polls: Hillary 50.4% Trump 44.4%

Final Result: Hillary 47.3% Trump 47.5%

Wow I dont even know what to say, that was huge. Also the difference was only 10k votes. Maybe democrats thought it was already won and decided not to vote? Black communities ashamed of saying they were supporting trump? Or maybe black communities with less access and time to go voting? Dont know but that result was far off from the polls results.

Well, if you look at the 538-forecast from 2016, it reflects pretty well the polls.

Florida: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/

Here you can see basically similar chances for both candidates, with a slight edge to Clinton. Look at the projected vote share, 538 had a colored area around the line to show probable area of imprecision, and the two colored area nearly completely overlap. So yes, basically every result was possible in Florida.

Michigan: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/

Here Trump was behind in chances. Still a 1 in 5 chance, but much lower. Interesting here the colored area. They show much les overlap, but the little area that overlaps is the area the actual result fall into. So the actual result was an unlikely but possible result, according to the statistical model.



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gergroy said:
Polls appear to be tightening... sadly...😒

Where do you see a tightening of the polls? The current moving average of polls has Biden leading Trump by a margin of 7.7 percentage points, which would be up from the 6.4 percentage point margin of two weeks ago. Two out of the three most recent ones (i.e. ones conducted since the running mate announcement) have Biden leading Trump by a full 10 points and even the outlier has Biden at fully 50% support. The running mate announcement appears to have added a point to Biden's overall support on balance. I'm not worried. I don't even think this election will necessarily be close.



Jaicee said:
gergroy said:
Polls appear to be tightening... sadly...😒

Where do you see a tightening of the polls? The current moving average of polls has Biden leading Trump by a margin of 7.7 percentage points, which would be up from the 6.4 percentage point margin of two weeks ago. Two out of the three most recent ones (i.e. ones conducted since the running mate announcement) have Biden leading Trump by a full 10 points and even the outlier has Biden at fully 50% support. The running mate announcement appears to have added a point to Biden's overall support on balance. I'm not worried. I don't even think this election will necessarily be close.

Since when did people start taking the polls seriously again? I know 4 years is a long time ago, but still...



KLXVER said:
Pemalite said:

Are you asserting that if the democrats win, democracy goes out the window?

It already has in several democrat run cities. The mob rules now.

Well, they have too fill the power vacuum left by the president rather golfing at his clubs, tweeting nonsense or campaigning than actually ruling and leading the country. Since he does nothing at all, other people have to take over the helm.



KLXVER said:
gergroy said:

Dude, I live in Utah, they are in charge of mail in voting here.  Why the crap would it matter?  Both parties are involved in the counting process.  Also, FYI, I’m not a democrat, I just really really really dislike the job trump has done.  So turning it against liberals or democrats means squat to me.  I just want trump gone.

Yeah and thats the problem. The democrats also really, really, really wants Trump gone. They have tried many different methods. Racism, sexism, Russia, stealing mail boxes, Covid etc. Whats a little voter fraud here and there?

Ask the republicans who exclude millions of voters with excessively strict and fallacious voter ID laws that filter out non-white voters by their names. Would that not be the case, the republican party already wouldn't have any chance at all in the elections.