Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Finding myself in need of something more to predict tonight, and having already predicted the outcome of this election here, I figured I'd forecast how the Trump-Biden debates will go. Here's an approximation of what the contents will be:

BIDEN: I love America! Americans can do anything! *other banal Americanisms*

TRUMP: Dementia Sleepy Joe Biden and his radical communist Democrat Party want to destroy law and order, abolish the police, let low-income people move to the suburbs, he hates the blacks, the blacks love me. But they are Antifa, they want open borders, and they want you to live through the coronavirus!

BIDEN: America wants leadership on..on on this virus. I am getting rid of this virus! One, I would...

TRUMP: Under me, America is #1 in coronavirus. Under you we'd be last! The world will be laughing at us! People are saying that you murdered your son Beau. I'm not saying that, people are saying it. People are saying it!

BIDEN: Come on, man!...

ETC. Something like that. Watch and see.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 15 August 2020

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I wonder if after all we've been through, the American public is into the appetite for apocalypse and doomsday talk from Republicans, or optimism from Dems. The message can't be starker.



Jaicee said:

Finding myself in need of something more to predict tonight, and having already predicted the outcome of this election here, I figured I'd forecast how the Trump-Biden debates will go. Here's an approximation of what the contents will be:

BIDEN: I love America! American can do anything! *other banal Americanisms*

TRUMP: Dementia Sleepy Joe Biden and his radical communist Democrat Party want to destroy law and order, abolish the police, let low-income people move to the suburbs, he hates the blacks, the blacks love me. But they are Antifa, they want open borders, and they want you to live through the coronavirus!

BIDEN: America wants leadership on..on on this virus. I am getting rid of this virus! One, I would...

TRUMP: Under me, America is #1 in coronavirus. Under you we'd be last! The world will be laughing at us! People are saying that you murdered your son Beau. I'm not saying that, people are saying it. People are saying it!

BIDEN: Come on, man!...

ETC. Something like that. Watch and see.

I think you missed some of the self-aggrandisement from Trump. He's surely going to brag about how amazing he is too.



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Ka-pi96 said:



I think you missed some of the self-aggrandisement from Trump. He's surely going to brag about how amazing he is too.

That's why I portrayed him obliviously bragging about the U.S. being #1 in coronavirus, like it's a good thing. It's an exaggeration of his actual view for the purposes of humor, but it's only a slight one, which is why I held out hope that it work as humor. I mean seriously, here's the four-point plan that Trump and his Twitter followers have devised for addressing covid so far that I can tell:

1) fire Dr. Fauci because he polls better,
2) stop testing people because it reveals how bad we're doing,
3) pull out of the World Health Organization because they reveal how bad we're doing, and...
4  if you contract the virus, drink bleach.

That objectively qualifies as a pro-covid program. We're doing bad enough as it is. Imagine if these loons actually got their way on everything! I wanted to include Trump's self-aggrandizement in a way that was both as stupid as it looks to me and also captured the essence of his attitude toward the crisis and how dangerous it really would be to re-elect him.



Didn't know that this thread was already underway (but probably should've assumed so). Well, in any case, 538 has started their forecast for the presidential election. For methodology: they use a Monte Carlo method, which means they take the current situation and simulate probable changes in voter behaviour or just possible votes in likely outcomes and put that together to determine the winner. That they do 40.000 times and take the percentage of who wins how often as result. 2016 they had Trump at the end at 28% (which means substantial chances for a Trump win, while a Clinton win was more likely). This time they predict 27% for Trump currently, 73% for Biden. Which still means Trump has a realistic chance.

This includes also the projection for the states if you are interested, here for example for Florida.

Surprisingly for me Biden has an outsider chance in Texas. A 30% chance for an political earthquake is somewhat interesting.

Expect the model to move as election comes closer and new polls and other data rolls in.



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Jaicee said:
Trumpstyle said:

I'm not sure if you implied(?) me, but I like Kamala Harris. That was a positive video of her that I posted, but maybe it can be seen as negative. As for Trump supporter, I have both leftie/rightwing policy positions. Look at my posts, not username.

Oh! Yeah I just went by your username. That threw me off.

Hey, if I can ask, this makes me curious: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would seem to have little in common. What makes it possible to like them both? What about them respectively is to your liking?

They have a few things in common. For instance, they both require bras: Kamala Harris wears a D-cup, and Trump is a D-bag. Kamala Harris is known for Smart on Crime and, unfortunately, Trump seems to be smart with crime (at least he's good at something). Lastly, Kamala Harris has read Kant, and Trump can't read.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

The Constitution on the President and his/her selection:

22nd Amendment (1951): "No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice..."

25th Amendment (1967) Sec. 4: The VP and a majority of the president's cabinet can take away the powers of the president for being "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" and assign them to the VP as "acting President" until the President demands their return. If the VP & co disagree, Congress determines within three weeks if the Prez shall remain powerless by 2/3 vote.

Then there's the Impeachment part for "Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes or Misdemeanors" somewhere in there...

But here's the messed up part...



Preface: The 20th Amendment declares each presidential term ends on Jan. 20th the year after the election, while Congress' ends on Jan. 3rd.

Ready?

12th Amendment: "If no person have" "majority of the whole number of Electors appointed" (the 538 Electors in the Electoral College) "the House of Representatives shall choose...the President."

Cool, so if there's a stalemate, the Democratic House will choose Biden, who, in a hypothetical free and fair election, is certain to win the popular vote...

"But" (uh oh) "the representation from each state [shall have] one vote...and a majority of all states shall be necessary to choose."

Meaning, even if the Dems keep their House majority, the number of low-population Republican states, swing or bluish states with Republican gerrymanders, and plain ol' red states combine to make a majority of state delegations...and re-elect Trump.

Unless things go this way...



So each state picks a slate of electors based on its popular vote. Each legislature votes for a slate, the governor signs it, and it's sent away to be tallied up to see who has the majority and becomes President.

But say Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or North Carolina's R legislature declares a winner can't be determined since it's too close, or they make up a rule that on-time mail-in ballots tallied after election day don't count (as Trump has said). They vote for a Trump slate, and the Democratic governor vetoes it. And then each branch sends a competing slate, or none at all.

Neither candidate reaches 270, and the House decides as described before.

HOWEVER, the 12th Amendment specifies the number of Electors APPOINTED. And if no slate is sent or competing slates are sent, can we say those count as "appointed"? If not, the number of electoral votes decreases by that state's number of electoral votes.

Now, if Biden has, say, the same map as Hillary and flips Maine-2's vote, and there are no faithless electors, he has 233 votes. Trump, without those four states, has 244 votes. If the Supreme Court interves to force at least one of those states to honor its popular vote, Biden wins.

So there's that.



In the hopes of making things both a bit more interesting and clarifying, here I'll list a raft of issues that are commonly discussed in the order of what I perceive to be their current importance/urgency followed by which candidate's position on those issues I agree with more.

COVID-19: Biden
General health care policy: Biden
Jobs and labor issues: Biden
Women's issues: Biden
Racism: Biden
Foreign policy and national security: Biden
Drug policy: Biden
Education policy: Biden
Gun policy: Biden
Crime policy: Biden
Immigration policy: Biden
The environment: Biden
Tax policy: Biden
The federal budget: Biden

So as you can see, this election is a very tough call for me. Who to vote for, who to vote for? Which one, which one?

It's not like I agree with Biden about everything by any means. I'd prefer a much more serious kind of economic populism from him and a less strictly liberal approach to women's issues as well, for instance, but in the choice of him or Trump, the choice for me is crystal clear. In point of fact, even if I agreed with Trump on everything but the matter of how to respond to the coronavirus outbreak, that one issue alone would still be enough to make me vote for Biden. It's just about the only thing that matters until it's contained because it's prevalence undermines pretty well everything else we might want to do in the way of positive reform.

I prioritized certain issues like immigration policy and the environment much lower than a year ago because of the current pandemic. I'm pretty sure that the drastic reduction in travel and slowdown in manufacturing output this year compared to last buys us more time to address climate change and a liberalized approach to immigration, while fundamentally a good idea, I think can also wait until we've gotten the current pandemic under control for obvious reasons. Remaining in the World Health Organization and restoring our faltering alliance with Europe and NATO are more pressing matters right now, I believe.

Anyway, that's my reasoning.