Alot of them wont.

Everyone is expecting the fall to be worse (in terms of how the virus acts and spreads) because of more people mingleing indoors.
More staying inside, less vitamin D, weaker immune systems = flu seasons.

Pandemic is probably gonna flair up alot of places around this time.
This will likely effect people behaviors, and how many choose to eat at resturants ect. (even if allowed).

The economy is linked to the virus.
You handle the virus well, your economy will be better off for it.

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Anyways if your one of these upper class expensive resturants...... you either have a huge amount of money pilled away for bad times (which this will be), or you change your ways.  ie time to start makeing cheap burgers & fries, and selling them in bags out a window (drive though if possible). Do something, to still keep some case inflow.

The badly off resturants, or ones that cant adapt will just fail.

First of all, the 700 cases is the weekend decrease, it was already going up towards 1500 a day. But that isn't even the important part. The important part is: if numbers increase, and nothing is changed so that the reasons why numbers are rising are kept, then the increase will become faster and faster over time. The reason is simple. If ten infected people themself cause say 15 new infections, then 100 people cause 150 and 1000 people cause 1500. So as long as the growth rate is staying the same, the faster the infection will spread over time. If you stop that early on, than it will never reach big numbers.

You talk as if it's March 2020 again.

That and it might accelerate as well. One infected person in a room might keep the micro droplet viral load in the air low enough not to infect anyone else in the room. Two combined might push it over the edge to infect one or multiple others.

An evenly spread low infection rate is better than the same amount of infected people in a small area, hence hot spots tend to flare up quite dramatically. However let it continue to slowly build up everywhere and you create the conditions for a country wide flare up. It works both ways, get Rt low enough and at some point the amplification effect disappears and cases drop faster. Yet allow the 'base load' of infections to increase again and they can start to amplify each other.


Ugh, one of my kid's friends' dad just invited everyone for a big end of summer party next Saturday. We declined of course (sorry we're social distancing) but they will be in class together... Stay away from your friend.... :/

I can't address all of the speculations but time will tell anyway. Covid as a lethal disease is not on the rise in Italy. There might be some rare lethal cases left for people who kept hiding in a vacuum container but no second wave or anything. CFR numbers are biased bc we are only looking at those few who had no immunity beforehand and they were indeed at a higher risk of dying but that is not representative of the overall population.

There were multiple studies showing that >50% of the uninfected population have existing T-cells against Covid-19, probably a cross-immunity from common corona viruses. You don't need 100% coverage for herd immunity so existing immunity and some degree of exposure will stop the spread of the virus.

Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+T cells in 40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘‘common cold’’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS0092867420306103%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

Germany has increased testing to ~100K PCR tests a day (!) to create 99% negatives with a typical 0.2-5% margin of error for false positives. Nothing but statistical noise.

https://bgr.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-testing-explains-germanys-low-covid-19-fatality-rate/

A study in Germany showed that 81% had preexisting T cell immunity against Covid-19. This might explain why Covid was DOA in Germoney.

Researchers at University Hospital Tübingen in Germany studied the blood of 365 people, 180 of whom had had Covid-19 and 185 who hadn't. When the researchers exposed people's blood to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, people who had had the illness already produced the strongest immune response. But surprisingly, there was also an immune reaction in 81 per cent of the people (150) who had never had Covid-19. This, the scientists said, was because they had already been infected with one or more of the common cold coronaviruses known to infect humans - named OC43, 229E, NL63 and HKU1 - and their immune systems cross-reacted as a result. The reaction the researchers were studying is caused by T cells, which are a type of white blood cell that produce long-lasting protection from serious infection.

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8475639/Catching-colds-protect-Covid-19-scientists-say.html

So why is the death toll so high in the USA, Americans don't catch colds?


The WHO is lying to everyone?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/looking-for-the-covid-19-hotspots-ignore-the-countries-seeing-virus-resurgences-1.5066461

Although the overall virus situation continues to worsen in Southeast Asia and the western Pacific, most other regions have seen their share of the global caseload stay relatively steady over the past month. This has led to suggestions that there may be some sort of worldwide COVID-19 plateau happening.

Asked about that possibility at a press briefing on Thursday, WHO health emergencies chief Michael Ryan acknowledged that numbers have levelled off but warned against backing off on proven virus-fighting techniques. "We may just be in the eye of the storm, and we don't know it," he said. "Countries that have made progress, please retain that progress. You will lose that progress if you relent, if you become complacent."

Ryan noted that, with approximately 21.5 million cases of COVID-19 confirmed globally, only "a very small proportion of the world's population" has been exposed to the virus. "This virus has a long way to burn, if we allow it," he said.



Covid-19 had far less success in killing the elderly in Germany cause of cultural differences between Germany and Italy. Plus Italy made one fatal error where the grand parents stepped in to look after the kids (if not already living in) when the schools closed so the parents could keep working.

Death rates went down here when 'the light went on' and people were no longer allowed to work at multiple elderly homes while extra help was sent in to lock them down. What changed is that everyone is now aware who is at risk and those at risk have been in hiding, forming social bubbles with other people at risk while segregating themselves from the less careful. The problem with re-opening schools is that all these safe bubbles will be forced to mingle with the 'party' people.


For us, kids only see grandparents and one friend of another immunocompromised, self isolating, family, basically since March. I do groceries once a week, early since its more quiet and much less chance of any viral matter to build up. Mask, lots of hygiene, stay away from everyone, big high building, big air volume, low limit on people inside, in and out in half an hour.

Next, 2 kids to school, 30 hours a week each, 60 hours. 120 times the exposure time. (lunch breaks in the same room without masks)
Full classes in much smaller rooms, an order of magnitude difference in people per air volume.
So pretty much at least a 1200x increase in chance of bringing covid-19 home :/

The second wave is finally on the decline here.

A week or two ago we were seeing new cases in the 400s to 700s per day, now it's down to the 200s and 300s, with a consistent downward trend. 

We went back into lockdown and made masks mandatory by law outside the home, and it seems to be working.

South Korea is suddenly shooting up
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-church-sarang-jeil.html

South Korea had battled the epidemic down to two-digit daily caseloads since April. But the number of new cases has soared recently, with 103 on Friday and 166 on Saturday, most of them worshipers at the Sarang Jeil Church in Seoul, the capital, and another church in the surrounding province of Gyeonggi. Health officials in South Korea reported 279 new coronavirus cases on Sunday.

In the past four days, the Sarang ​Jeil Church alone has reported at least ​193 cases among its members and contacts, the Seoul metropolitan government said. President Moon on Sunday warned of a surge in infections in coming days as health officials rush to test thousands of ​church ​members and their contacts. He called the crisis at Sarang Jeil the biggest challenge faced by health officials since the Shincheonji outbreak five months ago.

How's that mega church in California doing :/