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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

curl-6 said:

The second wave is finally on the decline here.

A week or two ago we were seeing new cases in the 400s to 700s per day, now it's down to the 200s and 300s, with a consistent downward trend. 

We went back into lockdown and made masks mandatory by law outside the home, and it seems to be working.

I swear Australia will leave its third wave before we deal with our first



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numberwang said:
SvennoJ said:

Where do you get the idea of herd immunity? Less deaths doesn't mean herd immunity at all.

What happened is that those more at risk and the elderly are actually taken precautions, basically have been hiding for the past 5 months like us. The average age of infected people has dropped dramatically while treatment has also gotten better. Less people with severe symptoms and better options for those that need help. Mobility trends are still far below normal, many people are working from home or lost their job. Masks are helping and more frequently used. However Covid-19 is on the rise again in Europe and keeps popping back up everywhere else as well. Even Italy is increasing again, no herd immunity.

The only reason we're not at millions of deaths is because of actions taken. People are not as stupid as their governments and those at risk do look out for themselves. Deaths are still on the rise world wide, over 40K last week, 752K total as of yesterday, still a 2.4% CFR. Europe's CFR is 1.7% atm.

I can't address all of the speculations but time will tell anyway. Covid as a lethal disease is not on the rise in Italy. There might be some rare lethal cases left for people who kept hiding in a vacuum container but no second wave or anything. CFR numbers are biased bc we are only looking at those few who had no immunity beforehand and they were indeed at a higher risk of dying but that is not representative of the overall population.

There were multiple studies showing that >50% of the uninfected population have existing T-cells against Covid-19, probably a cross-immunity from common corona viruses. You don't need 100% coverage for herd immunity so existing immunity and some degree of exposure will stop the spread of the virus.

Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+T cells in 40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘‘common cold’’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS0092867420306103%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

 

Deaths are usually lagging behind infections, as people die only after weeks on the ICU. Infections are *slightly* rising since two weeks, so the death rate will not increase for another two weeks or so.



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numberwang said:
Mnementh said:

First of all, the 700 cases is the weekend decrease, it was already going up towards 1500 a day. But that isn't even the important part. The important part is: if numbers increase, and nothing is changed so that the reasons why numbers are rising are kept, then the increase will become faster and faster over time. The reason is simple. If ten infected people themself cause say 15 new infections, then 100 people cause 150 and 1000 people cause 1500. So as long as the growth rate is staying the same, the faster the infection will spread over time. If you stop that early on, than it will never reach big numbers.

Germany has increased testing to ~100K PCR tests a day (!) to create 99% negatives with a typical 0.2-5% margin of error for false positives. Nothing but statistical noise.

https://bgr.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-testing-explains-germanys-low-covid-19-fatality-rate/

The number of tests carried out in the last weeks in germany:

week # of tests # of positive results proportion of positive tests
28 510,103 2,990 0.59%
29 538,144 3,483 0.64%
30 570,681 4,464 0.78%
31 577,916 5,634 0.97%
32 672,171 6,909 1.03%

As you can see, yes number of test increased slightly. But so did the rate of positive tests. A somewhat constant margin of false positives would mean the proportion of positive results would stay the same, but instead it nearly doubled. So maybe on the lowest point (week 28) the number is dominated by false positive, but the constant rise in positive results since then must be explained differently.



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SvennoJ said:

South Korea is suddenly shooting up
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-church-sarang-jeil.html

South Korea had battled the epidemic down to two-digit daily caseloads since April. But the number of new cases has soared recently, with 103 on Friday and 166 on Saturday, most of them worshipers at the Sarang Jeil Church in Seoul, the capital, and another church in the surrounding province of Gyeonggi. Health officials in South Korea reported 279 new coronavirus cases on Sunday.

In the past four days, the Sarang ​Jeil Church alone has reported at least ​193 cases among its members and contacts, the Seoul metropolitan government said. President Moon on Sunday warned of a surge in infections in coming days as health officials rush to test thousands of ​church ​members and their contacts. He called the crisis at Sarang Jeil the biggest challenge faced by health officials since the Shincheonji outbreak five months ago.

How's that mega church in California doing :/

Wow. As the first big cluster in South Korea was also connected to a megachurch, I wonder how this influences the future look of Korean towards these cults.



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Mnementh said:
numberwang said:

Germany has increased testing to ~100K PCR tests a day (!) to create 99% negatives with a typical 0.2-5% margin of error for false positives. Nothing but statistical noise.

https://bgr.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-testing-explains-germanys-low-covid-19-fatality-rate/

The number of tests carried out in the last weeks in germany:

week # of tests # of positive results proportion of positive tests
28 510,103 2,990 0.59%
29 538,144 3,483 0.64%
30 570,681 4,464 0.78%
31 577,916 5,634 0.97%
32 672,171 6,909 1.03%

As you can see, yes number of test increased slightly. But so did the rate of positive tests. A somewhat constant margin of false positives would mean the proportion of positive results would stay the same, but instead it nearly doubled. So maybe on the lowest point (week 28) the number is dominated by false positive, but the constant rise in positive results since then must be explained differently.

Nice data so i made a graph out of it. Judge for yourself.



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numberwang said:
Mnementh said:

First of all, the 700 cases is the weekend decrease, it was already going up towards 1500 a day. But that isn't even the important part. The important part is: if numbers increase, and nothing is changed so that the reasons why numbers are rising are kept, then the increase will become faster and faster over time. The reason is simple. If ten infected people themself cause say 15 new infections, then 100 people cause 150 and 1000 people cause 1500. So as long as the growth rate is staying the same, the faster the infection will spread over time. If you stop that early on, than it will never reach big numbers.

Germany has increased testing to ~100K PCR tests a day (!) to create 99% negatives with a typical 0.2-5% margin of error for false positives. Nothing but statistical noise.

https://bgr.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-testing-explains-germanys-low-covid-19-fatality-rate/

Where does that article say anything about false positives? PCR tests are extremely accurate and almost never give a false positive to my knowledge so I'd be interested to know where you get the information that up to 5% of results can be false positives. 

From MITmedical if anyone is curious:

"How accurate is the diagnostic test for COVID-19?

The PCR test for COVID-19 works by detecting genetic material from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The genetic material from SARS-CoV-2 cannot be confused with the genetic material from other viruses, so the COVID-19 diagnostic test is highly specific. This means it almost never gives a false positive. If you are tested for COVID-19, and the test comes back positive, you can be very sure that you are infected with this virus. The new antigen test for COVID-19 is also very specific and rarely gives a false positive.

Unfortunately, neither test is equally sensitive. If the specimen collection is not done perfectly, or if you are in an early stage of infection or already partially recovered, your nasal-swab sample might not contain enough viral material to come back positive. There are many stories about patients who tested negative soon after their symptoms began, only to test positive on a test done later. It is clear that the PCR test is more accurate at detecting early-stage infections, and there are early indications that the antigen test may be better at identifying patients who are already recovering. 

However, because false negative results on diagnostic tests happen relatively often, a negative result should not give you a sense of false security. If you have any symptoms of COVID-19, it is safest to assume you are infected and act accordingly, even if your diagnostic test comes back negative."

Basically, PCR is a technique that is hard to get to work sometimes so false negatives can be quite common, but false positives almost never occur. The standard PCR primer is usually 15-20 bp long at least and so the chance of a different virus or other strand of DNA matching enough to bind the primer is exceedingly low. Then you have two primers, which are distanced a certain length apart so you would have to have both primers bind (unlikely) and then make a similar sized fragment that would get mistaken for the correct length on a gel (unlikely). This is why I can use this technique to get a gene out of an entire genome and be confident that I get the gene I was hoping for if both primers worked and the PCR product is close to the correct size.  

https://medical.mit.edu/faqs/faq-testing-covid-19#faq-4

Last edited by Torillian - on 17 August 2020

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CaptainExplosion said:

Feels like this nightmare is never going to end because of fucking idiots who won't wear masks, won't social distance, and won't take vaccines. -_-

Some people will only believe it's a problem after they're dead.



Torillian said:
numberwang said:

Germany has increased testing to ~100K PCR tests a day (!) to create 99% negatives with a typical 0.2-5% margin of error for false positives. Nothing but statistical noise.

https://bgr.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-testing-explains-germanys-low-covid-19-fatality-rate/

Where does that article say anything about false positives? PCR tests are extremely accurate and almost never give a false positive to my knowledge so I'd be interested to know where you get the information that up to 5% of results can be false positives. 

I've seen an overview page yesterday about specificity and sensitivity for different PCR tests on the market but I can't find that site right now. The claimed range was 0.2-5% for specificity error (false positives) and typically less for sensitivity error (false negatives). I remember that common corona viruses increase false positives for Covid as well. Anyway what's the point of increased testing if all you get is something so close to nothing?

Netherlands are a more interesting example with a "second wave" of cases created by some real infections and increased testing. We could see a lag of about 1 week between cases and death during the first wave but now we got 4 weeks of second wave with no more deaths. Herd immunity achieved.



https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/us/coronavirus-college-university/index.html
University of North Carolina switched to remote learning after 130 students tested positive within the first week of classes.



jason1637 said:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/us/coronavirus-college-university/index.html
University of North Carolina switched to remote learning after 130 students tested positive within the first week of classes.

Welcome to the new normal.  Can't wait for all HS and Colleges to follow UNC's lead.