Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[numberwang]

Mnementh said:

numberwang said:

Germany has increased testing to ~100K PCR tests a day (!) to create 99% negatives with a typical 0.2-5% margin of error for false positives. Nothing but statistical noise.

https://bgr.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-testing-explains-germanys-low-covid-19-fatality-rate/

The number of tests carried out in the last weeks in germany:

week	# of tests	# of positive results	proportion of positive tests
28	510,103	2,990	0.59%
29	538,144	3,483	0.64%
30	570,681	4,464	0.78%
31	577,916	5,634	0.97%
32	672,171	6,909	1.03%

As you can see, yes number of test increased slightly. But so did the rate of positive tests. A somewhat constant margin of false positives would mean the proportion of positive results would stay the same, but instead it nearly doubled. So maybe on the lowest point (week 28) the number is dominated by false positive, but the constant rise in positive results since then must be explained differently.

Nice data so i made a graph out of it. Judge for yourself.