The most credible experts (Oxford model) predicted 2.2 million Covid deaths in the US alone. It's time to look at data instead of models.

Sweden is the best controlled experiment with their lax approach. Covid as a lethal disease has burned out with only 8% infected (real numbers are likely higher). Most (northern hemisphere) countries are in the final burnout stage after several months of Covid exposure and long before 100% infection rate. 

If you prefer to hear the same in a different voice: Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern.

https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809

The virus is gone for now. It will probably come back in winter, but it won’t be a second wave, but just a cold. Those young and healthy people who currently walk around with a mask on their faces would be better off wearing a helmet instead, because the risk of something falling on their head is greater than that of getting a serious case of Covid-19.

From the link: "So: Sars-Cov-2 isn’t all that new, but merely a seasonal cold virus that mutated and disappears in summer, as all cold viruses do — which is what we’re observing globally right now."

OK, that is plain wrong. Take a look at the data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As you can see, summer made no difference at all. That statement is already in the beginning of the text. If the author cannot fact-check such a simple and clear statement before writing it down, he already loses a lot of trust from my side. Does he state more things as fact, which are just untrue?

Lol Finally someone telling it how it is (Charles Pascal) live, bringing up all the concerns, the flip flopping, not enough funds, measures too late too little, school start should now be postponed to October 15th to get things in order, ending with I doubt Doug Ford even has the ability to run a pop stand. Answer, silence, ok thank you for your time, now lets go to the battle between tech giants Apple and Epic over Fortnite...

One thing he said couldn't be more true, every time Doug Ford and Lecce open their mouths students, parents and teacher's anxiety levels raise through the roof.

I will read what Dr. Stadler said about it when I get a chance. 

Noone thought herd immunity would require 100% infection rate, that's a ridiculous comparison. Now 8% confirmed infection rate in Sweden (I'd be curious where you're getting that number since I can only find 0.8% unless I'm doing my math wrong) would likely be 40-50% who actually got infected and that would be more reasonable than saying that you only need 5-10% infection for herd immunity. 

We can see an uptick in "positive cases" (not even people with visible symptoms) because of increased testing in high population countries.

Covid-19 as a lethal disease has disappeared in the EU (the US is maybe one or two months behind with many states like NY already at herd immunity)

No excess deaths in the western EU in the last 3 months. More cases with fewer deaths means increased herd immunity. 

https://www.euromomo.eu/

Or it means that more deaths are lagging behind more cases ~2 months.

Just look at the USA.

Where do you get the idea of herd immunity? Less deaths doesn't mean herd immunity at all.

What happened is that those more at risk and the elderly are actually taken precautions, basically have been hiding for the past 5 months like us. The average age of infected people has dropped dramatically while treatment has also gotten better. Less people with severe symptoms and better options for those that need help. Mobility trends are still far below normal, many people are working from home or lost their job. Masks are helping and more frequently used. However Covid-19 is on the rise again in Europe and keeps popping back up everywhere else as well. Even Italy is increasing again, no herd immunity.

The only reason we're not at millions of deaths is because of actions taken. People are not as stupid as their governments and those at risk do look out for themselves. Deaths are still on the rise world wide, over 40K last week, 752K total as of yesterday, still a 2.4% CFR. Europe's CFR is 1.7% atm.

Eh, I doubt there would be millions of deaths. 0.1 or 0.2% tops of the European population with no measures at all. That's peas next to the 1918 pandemic. And even less in south Asia, Africa etc. since the virus is exponentially less lethal to younger populations.

Surely if I'm wrong someone can point me to mass graves in Sweden or Belarus? Or Turkmenistan etc.

Speaking/Writing words in general is automatically encouraging? Ignore science? 

Science said I was allergic to raspberries. My doc said it would be a good idea to stop eating them because it could potentially end up life threatening. I really liked them though. After going a few years without eating them, I tried a few again, and it wasn't a problem for some odd reason. Then tried a few more. Even in large quantities, it hasn't been a problem for well over a decade now, so..?

Knowledge doesn't exclude experimenting and choice. Knowledge overall shouldn't tie you down, it should set you free. 

Weekly update.

Reported cases are slightly growing again worldwide, +2.1% week over week, another 1.8 million cases added last week.
Reported deaths also grew a bit again, 40,626 last week vs 40,455 the week before (39,886 the week before that).

The USA is still in decline yet less than last week, -3.6% week over week, 379K new cases last week.
Reported deaths is pretty much the same as last week, 7,387 vs 7,331 the week before (7,677 the week before that)

Europe keeps growing but a little less than last week, +7.4% week over week, 144K new cases last week.
Reported deaths is pretty much the same as last week, 2,256 vs 2,288 the week before (2,351 the week before that)

Not much change, carrying on like last week.

Asia now leads in daily reported cases, +10% week over week.
South America is close behind with slight growth, +1.7% week over week.
North America in third with slight decline, -4.0% week over week.
Europe slightly growing at +7.4% week over week.
Africa is declining at -21% week over week thanks to South Africa dropping rapidly.
Oceania is also going back down, Australia is back in control.


Japan and Australia both managed to flatten their new waves, however both ended up higher than their previous waves.
Australia's reported deaths is already almost 3x higher than from their first wave, Japan seems to have a less lethal wave this time.
Canada pretty much remains on the same level, Iran had a dip but went right back to its previous level.
South Africa is making good progress, it also looks like their reported deaths have peaked for now.
South Korea got a new outbreak to deal with while China is still busy suppressing their latest one.

The big ones:
India is on top for reported cases, averaging 62K daily with 6,556 deaths last week (vs 6,027 the week before)
USA is in second, averaging 54K daily with 7,387 deaths last week (vs 7,331 the week before)
Brazil is in third, averaging 44K daily with 6,869 deaths last week (vs 7,134 the week before)

Europe (Sweden back but lagging a week behind)

Spain had some major corrections making it look like a peak but more likely the result of adding and now removing anti body test results.
It looks like all are still climbing up into a second wave, some faster than others yet all a lot slower than into the first wave.

For summer, the easy time to deal with the virus, we're not making any progress :/