numberwang said:
The most credible experts (Oxford model) predicted 2.2 million Covid deaths in the US alone. It's time to look at data instead of models. Sweden is the best controlled experiment with their lax approach. Covid as a lethal disease has burned out with only 8% infected (real numbers are likely higher). Most (northern hemisphere) countries are in the final burnout stage after several months of Covid exposure and long before 100% infection rate.
If you prefer to hear the same in a different voice: Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern. https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809 The virus is gone for now. It will probably come back in winter, but it won’t be a second wave, but just a cold. Those young and healthy people who currently walk around with a mask on their faces would be better off wearing a helmet instead, because the risk of something falling on their head is greater than that of getting a serious case of Covid-19. |
I will read what Dr. Stadler said about it when I get a chance.
Noone thought herd immunity would require 100% infection rate, that's a ridiculous comparison. Now 8% confirmed infection rate in Sweden (I'd be curious where you're getting that number since I can only find 0.8% unless I'm doing my math wrong) would likely be 40-50% who actually got infected and that would be more reasonable than saying that you only need 5-10% infection for herd immunity.
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