Considering the digital ratios for major western games on PS4/X1, it's more likely to be over 30m than not. That's discounting PC sales too, while much lower than consoles sales are still a couple million. I'm not sure why you'd really debate RDR2 either. Quite a lot of hype built for it that the first did not have. While I'm not as bullish as some (I've seen tons of 20m+ predictions in 2018 alone), it's going to be a huge success.

Considering this was similar situation in Wii, and that a lot of the AAA Multiplats doesn't release on Switch plus the exclusives of PS4, it is pretty reasonable that a good bunch of Switch owners would have another console to have a bigger scope of releases.

I thought you were talking about retail.

Anyway, with digital and PC I agree BOIIII will get past the 20M mark.

Still not sure with RDR2 though. While the first one didn't have the hype, it resulted into selling well over time and not being frontloaded, only a third of the sales were during the launch window (first 2 months). I expect RDR2 to be much more frontloaded, selling well until Christmas and then tapering off to the depths of the sales charts. It all depends if the game sells well enough during this holiday season imo.

Actualy its opposite situation to Wii, dont forget that Switch is only 1.5 years on market while PS4/XB1 4.5 years, so this suggesting that PS4/XB1 owners are buying Switch, not that Switch owners are buying PS4/XB1.

And who to say a good bunch of Wii owners first bought X360/PS3 and later Wii (sure I know that for Switch the situation is majority bought first PS4/X1 due to the release window).

Sales say so. After all Wii was selling in it's first two years like PS360 combined and dropped hard after it's fourth year, so chances are most got their Wii first and a PS3 and/or 360 later down the road.

Well we know that Wii had strong sales first few years and that than start slowing down, plenty of casuals were on board and Wii had very aforidible price point from start, but few years later in around 2010. when PS3/360 start getting lower price point with contined releases of strong games while Wii start slowing down with games, plenty of Wii owners start upgraded to PS3/360.

Good bunch =/= majority.

The original point still stands, people bought Wii and Switch mostly for the Nintendo exclusives and have another console for most MPs.

Agre with all points, but I put it as good bunch not majority.

Well, there is actual evidence that many countries prefer gaming on PC to gaming on console. Many european countries (especially in eastern europe) or Korea for example. China is complicated, as always. That doesn't mean the Switch will do particularly well in these countries too, still there is the step from PC to console gaming. I did this step some time ago with Wii, but here in germany is a split between console and PC gamers, both sides are strong. If I talk with my friends about games, they often haven't heard about some stuff I talk about and one especially can be excited, until he hears it is only on console. So in countries like here in germany the statistics will be different to the US, as not as much game on console in the first place, the Switch owners will not have at 70% owned PS4 (and really not Xbox). But they might not be the strongest markets for Switch too. Looking at the numbers, US and Japan are the strongest markets for Switch, and they are heavily into console gaming over PC gaming. So it is pretty likely, that in these countries Switch owners already owned one of the two other consoles.

now we care about scores and metacritic lmao