Forums - Sales Discussion - How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

Less Than 35 Million 74 3.83%
 
35-50 Million 155 8.02%
 
51-65 Million 209 10.81%
 
66-80 Million 461 23.85%
 
81-95 Million 448 23.18%
 
96-110 Million 343 17.74%
 
111-125 Million 91 4.71%
 
126-140 Million 47 2.43%
 
141-155 Million 17 0.88%
 
More Than 155 Million 88 4.55%
 
Total:1,933

120 million for me.

So 111-125 million range.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

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I expect Switch to average around 200,000 units sold per week until 2023. The average may seem a bit high, but you gotta account for holiday sales. There's probably enough of a handheld market for Nintendo to still sell to 50 million handheld users. A non-crappy Nintendo home-only console would probably sell around 20 to 25 million lifetime. Switch grabs both these markets for a cool 75 million sold worldwide. Sure there's some crossover such as many 3DS owners also happening to own a Wii U, but having all their games on one system will allow Nintendo to attract a lot of lapsed fans, that would have passed on a 3DS2, or a Wii U2.

Anyway I voted 81 million.

Switch won't have a problem competing with XB2 or PS5. They won't make a portable sytem, since they're both about power. And Switch is good enough to be a secondary system for many PC/Xbox/Sony gamers.



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MasonADC said:
BoseDK said:
I can see it barely hitting 80 million. Nintendo consoles tend to have a sharp decline in sales compared to Playstations, I don't think it'll have the legs of PS4.
I'd say it's already had it's peak year in 2017 if you consider it sold what it did in 10 months. I highly doubt it'll sell that much again.

It will definitely outsell 2017 this year and next. 

In total sales probably. In 2017 it sold 13 million according to VGC numbers, but it did that in 10 months.

From March-July in 2017 it sold 4.8 million, this year it has sold 4 million in the same timeframe. So it's lagging by almost 20%.

Now it has to sell a million more in the remaining 5 months than it did last year which was around 8.5 million. I just don't see it selling much more than it did last year from now till December. 



Less than the 3DS.



Cerebralbore101 said:
I expect Switch to average around 200,000 units sold per week until 2023. The average may seem a bit high, but you gotta account for holiday sales. There's probably enough of a handheld market for Nintendo to still sell to 50 million handheld users. A non-crappy Nintendo home-only console would probably sell around 20 to 25 million lifetime. Switch grabs both these markets for a cool 75 million sold worldwide. Sure there's some crossover such as many 3DS owners also happening to own a Wii U, but having all their games on one system will allow Nintendo to attract a lot of lapsed fans, that would have passed on a 3DS2, or a Wii U2.

Anyway I voted 81 million.

Switch won't have a problem competing with XB2 or PS5. They won't make a portable sytem, since they're both about power. And Switch is good enough to be a secondary system for many PC/Xbox/Sony gamers.

It's actually low if it's supposed to include holiday sales. 5 years worth of 200k weekly sales only amount to 52M, or 10.4M a year. That's just slightly above Xbox One numbers. 250-300k weekly seem more realistic at this time if you want them to include holiday sales.



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im going with the 60m range



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Lawlight said:

Less than the 3DS.

Switch keep selling better than 3DS in same time period and that's without any price cut still while 3DS needed to have huge price cut only 6 months after launch in order to start selling. So LT Switch will not have any problem reaching at least 80m, 3DS probably will not hit 80m. I mean at end of second full year for Switch, it will already be somewhere around half of 3DS numbers.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 21 August 2018

BoseDK said:
MasonADC said:

It will definitely outsell 2017 this year and next. 

In total sales probably. In 2017 it sold 13 million according to VGC numbers, but it did that in 10 months.

From March-July in 2017 it sold 4.8 million, this year it has sold 4 million in the same timeframe. So it's lagging by almost 20%.

Now it has to sell a million more in the remaining 5 months than it did last year which was around 8.5 million. I just don't see it selling much more than it did last year from now till December. 

Have a look here, you'll see that the Switch is outselling last year almost every week save for March and April due to being the launch months, but June and July only made the gap grow bigger and bigger. If you take the 1.2 million from launch week out of the equation (which is only fair considering you're cutting out the 2 first months of this year too), then Switch is selling better than last year in the same timeframe by half a million.

You're also not considering future releases. Smash and Pokémon are both much bigger than a 3D Mario, and Super Mario Party alone should already about equal Odyssey in hardware sales push. Add to this the fact that Switch had no Black Friday deals last year but certainly will have this year, and possibly even a pricecut to boot, I'd say sales October through December should be much higher than last year's sales. Add to this that Switch is outselling 2017 on a weekly basis right now and it should be clear that 2017 will be beaten by a country mile.



Miyamotoo said:
Lawlight said:

Less than the 3DS.

Switch keep selling better than 3DS in same time period and that's without any price cut still while 3DS needed to have huge price cut only 6 months after launch in order to start selling. So LT Switch will not have any problem reaching at least 80m, 3DS probably will not hit 80m. I mean at end of second full year for Switch, it will already be somewhere around half of 3DS numbers.

We’ll see. Official Switch shipment numbers are outpacing the 3DS shipment numbers by 3.5% but the 3DS had its life prolonged thanks to Pokemon Go.

And what the end of the Switch’s second full year is basically half its life.



Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

Switch keep selling better than 3DS in same time period and that's without any price cut still while 3DS needed to have huge price cut only 6 months after launch in order to start selling. So LT Switch will not have any problem reaching at least 80m, 3DS probably will not hit 80m. I mean at end of second full year for Switch, it will already be somewhere around half of 3DS numbers.

We’ll see. Official Switch shipment numbers are outpacing the 3DS shipment numbers by 3.5% but the 3DS had its life prolonged thanks to Pokemon Go.

And what the end of the Switch’s second full year is basically half its life.

Until now, but that difference is getting bigger, Switch is getting momentum, for instance it had best July month in US in last 8 years in gaming. Switch will not have typical life of Nintendo home console, it will have life span similar to handheld and 3DS because of its hybrid nature and future revisions, Nintendo said they want Switch to have longer life span than typical 6 years.