How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

[Bofferbrauer2]

BoseDK said:

MasonADC said:

It will definitely outsell 2017 this year and next. 

In total sales probably. In 2017 it sold 13 million according to VGC numbers, but it did that in 10 months.

From March-July in 2017 it sold 4.8 million, this year it has sold 4 million in the same timeframe. So it's lagging by almost 20%.

Now it has to sell a million more in the remaining 5 months than it did last year which was around 8.5 million. I just don't see it selling much more than it did last year from now till December. 

Have a look here, you'll see that the Switch is outselling last year almost every week save for March and April due to being the launch months, but June and July only made the gap grow bigger and bigger. If you take the 1.2 million from launch week out of the equation (which is only fair considering you're cutting out the 2 first months of this year too), then Switch is selling better than last year in the same timeframe by half a million.

You're also not considering future releases. Smash and Pokémon are both much bigger than a 3D Mario, and Super Mario Party alone should already about equal Odyssey in hardware sales push. Add to this the fact that Switch had no Black Friday deals last year but certainly will have this year, and possibly even a pricecut to boot, I'd say sales October through December should be much higher than last year's sales. Add to this that Switch is outselling 2017 on a weekly basis right now and it should be clear that 2017 will be beaten by a country mile.