This is a tough one. I thought before launch we were looking at a system that would sell similar numbers to 3DS, but it's clear from the way Switch is trending it has more potential than 3DS. Even without any major hardware-driving titles launching in the last 8 months, the system is trending to beat 3DS's 2012 - which had a major title (NSMB2) and hardware revision (3DS XL) launching that summer. As Soundwave has pointed out, Switch is performing far more strongly in Europe and North America than 3DS did, and in the long-run, that's going to be significant, given the relative size of those markets versus the Japanese market. On these factors, and in its position as a hybrid system with a rapidly growing software library, I think we can count on Switch hitting somewhere between 90 to 100 million. A lot depends on Switch having a monster fourth quarter this year; hitting the 20 million FY target is a tough task, but if Nintendo are at or around the 18 million mark for the year, I think Switch will still be in a very strong position.

Major question marks for me are how long Nintendo support the system; what kind of hardware revision they launch and when; and the timing of major software releases. While this year will likely still be an impressive year for Switch on the back of an enormous Christmas quarter, I can't help but feel in future Nintendo need to space out major sellers more consistently. If Nintendo are serious about supporting Switch into the long-run (beyond the 4-5 years of support Nintendo normally give their home consoles), then they need to avoid software droughts by pacing their major releases consistently and they need to offer a revised Switch in 2020. 2019 has the potential to be a very strong year, especially if franchises like Animal Crossing and 2D Mario/Mario Maker join Pokemon Generation 8. There's the potential for a price-cut and more aggressive bundling in 2019, too, which leaves Nintendo free to hold off on a hardware revision until slightly later in the life-cycle. You could tell Nintendo were struggling to maintain or generate higher sales for 3DS given they were launching hardware revisions on a near-annual basis (July 2012, October 2013 for 2DS in the West, October 2014 for New 3DS in Japan).

While Nintendo may have launched many major franchises by 2020, a significant hardware revision in that year - combined with a wave of EPD-developed software to support it - could see Switch power on and achieve the kind of sales consistency Wii lacked, but which PS4 has achieved. If that's the case, I think we're looking at life-time sales somewhere in the 130 million region. While I've given two different estimates, I'll go with the higher figure - because it will be more interesting to see what happens in the years ahead, that way.

We’re talking about global numbers here and I’m bringing up official shipment numbers up until the end of June. I am only commenting on what’s been reported by Nintendo.

I also talking about global numbers, and Switch is getting momentum from June and July carried in August. Nintendo actually commented that Switch is getting momentum from E3.

I think Switch can reach 80 million

Does hardware launches not have a big boost? It shouldn't matter that the switch launched in march. If this site numbers are any indication, the Switch is sitting comfortably above last year, and has little to no chance of falling behind

Let's compare the number it did from the second week of march to present time in both years. I believe Switch 2018 is in the lead 

I don't do ban bets, because I think they are insane. Well, then the light variant, a disclaimer in the sig, that '$winner was right and I was wrong, about $outcome".

So because Nintendo is marketing the Switch very much in France (where the Switch is whooping the PS4's ass!) you conclude that they are doing the same in every other European country. That's just as correct as deducing from Japanese ads how the 3 consoles will sell WW, hence why the data from France and all of Europe is very different.

From your link:
PS4 2018 (hardware): 332,399
Switch 2018 (hardware): 358,738

PS4 2018 (software): 3,305,588
Switch 2018 (software): 1,880,647

Is that really the definition of ass whooping though? Especially considering that PS4 is nearing market saturation with 4.5 mill sold.

one MILLION units!

Switch is in front without any big releases, MK8D is the bestselling game in France this year, not even God of War could beat that year-old game While it's not yet whooping the PS4s ass, it shows that Sony can't beat the Switch even with many high-profile releases versus none of those on Switch.. Now imagine how it's doing with some actual high profile game releases like Super Mario Party, Pokémon or Smash.

Also, saturation? The PS3 sold almost one million more consoles, the Wii over 6.2M and the population has grown since then. It's still a ways off from being strongly hold back by saturation.

While the PS4 is selling more software, that's only due to the bigger install base. And still with almost 4x as many consoles sold, the PS4 still only managed to sell somewhat under 2x as much software as the Switch did so far this year.