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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

 

How Much Do You Expect the Nintendo Switch to Sell Lifetime?

Less Than 35 Million 74 3.82%
 
35-50 Million 155 8.01%
 
51-65 Million 209 10.80%
 
66-80 Million 461 23.82%
 
81-95 Million 448 23.15%
 
96-110 Million 343 17.73%
 
111-125 Million 91 4.70%
 
126-140 Million 47 2.43%
 
141-155 Million 18 0.93%
 
More Than 155 Million 89 4.60%
 
Total:1,935
curl-6 on 21 August 2018

It should pass 100 million.

Whether it does depends on whether Nintendo pull their finger out and start releasing a consistent tempo of big new games, plus price cuts, hardware revisions, and support for at least a 6 year lifespan.

It could just as easily grind to a halt at 80 million if Nintendo continue to be lazy, arrogant, and complacent. Switch's biggest enemy right now is Nintendo themselves.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 August 2018

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curl-6 on 21 August 2018
mZuzek said:
curl-6 said:

It should pass 100 million.

Whether it does depends on whether Nintendo pull their finger out and start releasing a consistent tempo of system-selling software, plus price cuts, hardware revisions, and support for at least a 6 year lifespan.

It could just as easily grind to a halt at 80 million if Nintendo continue to be lazy, arrogant, and complacent. Switch's biggest enemy right now is Nintendo themselves.

Laziness, arrogance and complacency have hardly ever looked this good. I'm okay with this.

1 big game in 12 months. Basically a whole year of nothing but prehistoric ports, mediocre filler, and shovelware. Continuing this behaviour will not get them to 100 million.



Metallox on 21 August 2018

Whether it sells more than 80M units depends solely on whether Nintendo can hold interest for such a considerably long time. So far, even with its lackluster 2018 is currently having its release input, the machine has been holding up nicely, and Smash should provide a great effect not only during the holidays, but throughout the next few months to come as well. What comes after it, though? Well, Pokémon is a given, but hopefully they can bring up a new Mario, Zelda, Animal Crossing, new things, etc., soon. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

curl-6 on 21 August 2018
mZuzek said:
curl-6 said:

1 big game in 12 months. A whole year of nothing but prehistoric ports, mediocre filler, and shovelware. Continuing this behaviour will not get them to 100 million.

It's not about behaviour, it's about having limited resources and having blown out most of them in 2017 with four major high budget titles in Zelda, Mario, Xenoblade and to a lesser extent Splatoon - and then to a lesser extent, Arms.

In any case, calling Smash Ultimate "one big game" is quite an understatement. It's shaping up to be the biggest fighting game ever made, and by a long, long, long margin. I'd go as far as calling it the best game ever period, but there are many different qualities you could use to call a game that.

Edit: I mean, just look at next year. We already have Fire Emblem and Yoshi confirmed, and one megaton confirmed in Pokémon 8th gen. We don't know yet whether Bayonetta 3 and/or Metroid Prime 4 will release next year, but it does sound likely. Given we probably also have Pikmin and Animal Crossing in the horizon, besides whatever the hell Retro Studios spent the last 57 years on (if it even exists), it's looking like another potential great lineup. In the meantime, biggest game ever will do.

Smash is still just 1 game. The only big game for the system in all of 2018.

End of last year people were saying 2018 would be huge, that we'd probably see Prime 4, Bayonetta 3, Animal Crossing, Retro's game, Pikmin 4. And here we are. 2019 could go the same way, nothing but regurgitated leftovers and throwaway fluff until Pokemon at year's end. This year has shown Nintendo will do the absolute bare minimum they can get away with.



PortisheadBiscuit on 21 August 2018

80 million



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Lawlight on 21 August 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Lawlight said:

We’re talking about global numbers here and I’m bringing up official shipment numbers up until the end of June. I am only commenting on what’s been reported by Nintendo.

I also talking about global numbers, and Switch is getting momentum from June and July carried in August. Nintendo actually commented that Switch is getting momentum from E3.

Can you post links to your support your claim with facts and figures?



curl-6 on 21 August 2018
mZuzek said:
curl-6 said:

Smash is still just 1 game. The only big game for the system in all of 2018.

End of last year people were saying 2018 would be huge, that we'd probably see Prime 4, Bayonetta 3, Animal Crossing, Retro's game, Pikmin 4. And here we are. 2019 could go the same way, nothing but regurgitated leftovers and throwaway fluff until Pokemon at year's end. This year has shown Nintendo will do the absolute bare minimum they can get away with.

Eh, anyone who believed Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 would come out this year was simply delusional, no other way to put it. I was one of the ones excited for 2018, I even made a thread on it, but the excitement simply came from not having any idea what to expect, and well... we really got nothing unexpected lol. But I'm a Smash fan and Ultimate is looking like a serious contender for favorite game ever on my end, so I can't even think about complaining over what we're getting. Also, Mario Tennis Aces is at the very least as big as Arms, I wouldn't downplay it so much. Pokémon Let's Go and Super Mario Party are good B-tier games as well.

That said, it has been a great year for third-parties on the Switch. I don't see why it's wrong for a Nintendo system to rely on that when the others do it all the time, if anything it's impressive that it's gotten here considering Nintendo's history with third-parties.

Anyways, this discussion has run its course. Personally, I think the Switch will end up somewhere around 85-90 million units.

Last year had plenty of big games that lived up to Nintendo's A-grade standards, like Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, Splatoon 2, and Xenoblade 2. B-tier stuff like Mario Tennis and Kirby Star Allies are no substitute.

And the thing with those third party games though is they were all either years old or B/C tier. There weren't any new ones on the level of quality we saw last year with Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle.



curl-6 on 21 August 2018
mZuzek said:
curl-6 said:

Last year had plenty of big games that lived up to Nintendo's A-grade standards, like Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, Splatoon 2, and Xenoblade 2. B-tier stuff like Mario Tennis and Kirby Star Allies are no substitute.

And the thing with those third party games though is they were all either years old or B/C tier. There weren't any new ones on the level of quality we saw last year with Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle.

Then please specify that by "quality" you mean "production values", because I'd argue Hollow Knight is far better than nearly every Switch title, third-party or not.

Well, it is a last year game, I guess.

That's the thing, it's not new. 

The Switch went from being a hot system with a boatload of hot new games in 2017 to little more than a dumping ground for old rope this year.



curl-6 on 22 August 2018
mZuzek said:
curl-6 said:

That's the thing, it's not new. 

The Switch went from being a hot system with a boatload of hot new games in 2017 to little more than a dumping ground for old rope this year.

Eh, maybe for you. Many people hadn't played Hollow Knight before, it's a new experience to them. Okami is another masterpiece some people are experiencing for the first time now. The same applies to many other games, it's never a bad thing to re-release a great game.

I understand you, though. Of course, it's sad to not have many new exciting new games to look forward to. But you have to understand Nintendo is quite a limited studio in comparison to some other AAA developers, and even the most prolific companies have a hard time releasing loads of high-budget games for several years in a row in this day and age. Nintendo only had so much in 2017 because they had been preparing for it for all of the two years before, and it was obvious they blew out most of their load - and even then, Xenoblade 2 was clearly rushed. 2018 was simply never going to come close to living up. You can either be frustrated about that, or continue to enjoy the console with all of the great experiences it offers.

Nintendo may not be able to make a AAA game every month by themselves, I get that, but why aren't they outsourcing more projects to talented external teams to keep the flow of games up? Why aren't they buying third party exclusives or pushing harder to get multiplats? Why aren't they at least showing us stuff like Metroid Prime 4 and Bayonetta 3 so we have something to get excited about and look forward to beyond just the next 4 months?



Qwark on 22 August 2018
curl-6 said:
mZuzek said:

Laziness, arrogance and complacency have hardly ever looked this good. I'm okay with this.

1 big game in 12 months. Basically a whole year of nothing but prehistoric ports, mediocre filler, and shovelware. Continuing this behaviour will not get them to 100 million.

The said thing is that it might. Even with fairly few new releases the Switch will sell 17 million units this year at least. And there is not really a sign of it slowing down. Besides they are releasing a pokémon game not that they put too much effort into it. But Nintendo can be lazy and still sell a huge amount of games and consoles. 



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar