What is the entirety of your assumptions? The Switch seems to have better legs? The PS4 will sell 130 million? I think you should add another to the list, just because.

it can drop in price drastically.  Under $200 this holiday, under $150 next, $99 by the time PS5 comes out

The statistics that gets me the most: for years after WiiU was already out Just Dance performed best on the Wii. The Wii that was supposedly be covered in dust. Nintendo made IMHO a big mistake for early pulling the support on the Wii.

they need more advertising if they want Wii-levels of success. yes, the marketing is substantially better than the Wii U but only the hardcore and mmid-tier gamers really know it exists. there is still the casual market which takes up a good 50% of all gamers (aka the guys who only buy new consoles for sports games and CoD). if Nintendo could reach those guys, it would sell even faster than it is now

At the moment I think the Switch might perform below the Wii. It has gotten a restricted customerbase so far, but one that is willign to pay for games, which might be good.

If Nintendo is able to widen the customerbase over the years it might be possible the Switch beats the Wii. Depends on a lot though.

I don't think the Switch will outsell the Wii. Sure, it's sold out now. But it's still super early and I don't think you're seeing the level of pandemonium around the Switch that you saw around the Wii.

I doubt it. The Wii was a cultural phenomenon and even the dominant PS4 is having to put in work to top that number. Initial reception does appear better than expected, though. I could see 80M if they maintain good support through its life (up from my original 50-60M).

Console is selling out quickly.

If they drop 3DS and give Switch full support, I could see it happening with the right business decisions.

The Switch outselling the Wii, Is this a joke?