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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Switch vs Wii - Who will sell more LT?

Green098 said:

I was still playing on my Wii occasionaly in 2012/13, when even though the Wii U was out, I never knew it existed at the time.

Same.

And even back then I considered myself a big time video gamer. Really shows how much Nintendo dropped the ball on it.



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Would love if the Switch reached Wii numbers, but really... I would think the Wii will end up higher lifetime.

But I would be delighted to be proved wrong by the little beasty.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

Switch is a very different system with very different demographic appeal than the Wii did, I think that's the danger in comparing the two too directly.

Not saying Switch can't hit 100+ million or 150 million or 70 million or whatever. But these are very different systems.

You have to consider even though 1,2 Switch is selling ok, it has probably a 30% attach rate, which means 70% of Switch owners are not buying it. And Just Dance looks like it's selling like crap. So the majority of Switch buyers are choosing not to buy either one of the two motion-only based games, whereas Wii was centrally driven by motion based games. By Nintendo's own metrics the audience is 90% male and over the age of 16, this is likely radically different from the Wii as well. 



The Switch will sell more than the Wii.



Soundwave said:

Switch is a very different system with very different demographic appeal than the Wii did, I think that's the danger in comparing the two too directly.

Not saying Switch can't hit 100+ million or 150 million or 70 million or whatever. But these are very different systems.

You have to consider even though 1,2 Switch is selling ok, it has probably a 30% attach rate, which means 70% of Switch owners are not buying it. And Just Dance looks like it's selling like crap. So the majority of Switch buyers are choosing not to buy either one of the two motion-only based games, whereas Wii was centrally driven by motion based games. By Nintendo's own metrics the audience is 90% male and over the age of 16, this is likely radically different from the Wii as well. 

Well, if you give hardcore gamers a mediocre Mario game that's not going to sell, either. Just wait until some good mass market games hit (Mario Kart is the first). The Switch will sell to females and kids once the games hit - Animal Crossing, Pokémon*, etc.

 

Believe, Soundwave! <3 

(*which sells to both adults and children)



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Louie said:
The Switch will sell more than the Wii.
 

It's possible I think if they have more hardware versions and different classes of hardware, thus basically incentivizing people to buy multiple Switch systems over the same 6 year period that would define a normal "generation". They can bend the rules there, much like tablet makers and phone makers do, as almost no one keeps one phone for like 6 straight years. 

I think you'll see the current Switch die-shrunk to a more efficient 16nm chip, and eventually that model will be smaller + cheaper and Nintendo will target that to a younger audience, but by mid-cycle IMO they'll have a higher powered Switch to replace the top end of the market (2DS/3DS likely completely gone at that point). 

They can do this much more easily now too because Nvidia because continues to iterate up on the Tegra chipset, so Nintendo doesn't have to pay a ton for R&D or shoulder the R&D burden themselves. 



Louie said:
Soundwave said:

Switch is a very different system with very different demographic appeal than the Wii did, I think that's the danger in comparing the two too directly.

Not saying Switch can't hit 100+ million or 150 million or 70 million or whatever. But these are very different systems.

You have to consider even though 1,2 Switch is selling ok, it has probably a 30% attach rate, which means 70% of Switch owners are not buying it. And Just Dance looks like it's selling like crap. So the majority of Switch buyers are choosing not to buy either one of the two motion-only based games, whereas Wii was centrally driven by motion based games. By Nintendo's own metrics the audience is 90% male and over the age of 16, this is likely radically different from the Wii as well. 

Well, if you give hardcore gamers a mediocre Mario game that's not going to sell, either. Just wait until some good mass market games hit (Mario Kart is the first). The Switch will sell to females and kids once the games hit - Animal Crossing, Pokémon*, etc.

 

Believe, Soundwave! <3 

(*which sells to both adults and children)

Kids yes, eventually, females I'm not convinced about because of the warping effects of smartphones, but it doesn't need to. 

It can beat (yes) even the Wii without them. 

I think Switch has advantages people are not accounting for, more notably it has the highest appeal to core gamers I believe for any Nintendo system from the last 20 years. 

It doesn't look like a toy, doesn't feel like a toy, and isn't marketed like a toy. Those are huge game changers. Don't underestimate that. 

I think it could more akin to the N64 actually, which I still maintain could have sold 100+ million itself had it not been crippled by extremely restrictive cartridge issues. Today cartridges are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay cheaper and can hold a ton of data so it's not an issue that would castrate the system's flow of software. 

Back then a 8MB (1/64th of a CD) cartridge cost $20-$30 just for the cartridge. Today a 16GB (1/3 of a Blu-Ray disc) card costs maybe $3 at the manufacturing level if not less on top of system's having internal storage for cheap that further installs and much better compression techniques available today.



Soundwave said:
Louie said:
 

It's possible I think if they have more hardware versions and different classes of hardware, thus basically incentivizing people to buy multiple Switch systems over the same 6 year period that would define a normal "generation". They can bend the rules there, much like tablet makers and phone makers do, as almost no one keeps one phone for like 6 straight years. 

I think you'll see the current Switch die-shrunk to a more efficient 16nm chip, and eventually that model will be smaller + cheaper and Nintendo will target that to a younger audience, but by mid-cycle IMO they'll have a higher powered Switch to replace the top end of the market (2DS/3DS likely completely gone at that point). 

They can do this much more easily now too because Nvidia because continues to iterate up on the Tegra chipset, so Nintendo doesn't have to pay a ton for R&D or shoulder the R&D burden themselves. 

Yeah, I certainly think they will do redesigns (and a more powerful Switch that basically plays the current docked mode in handheld mode would be too obvious of an opportunity to pass up on). 

As for your other post: I believe the Switch will sell very well to women once the price goes down and the right software releases. You can't have a breakout hit system without women, as women have about 80% of all purchasing power ("pitch to the b*tch" is what they teach you when you want to become a salesman). And I don't think smartphones will change that. Two months ago many people thought handheld gaming was dead because customers in general had moved on to smartphones. Apparently, they haven't. And once the software hits, women will be on board. I just recently read that Nintendo was very pleased with the 2DS because it sold so well to women and children and women are certainly the target audience for the 2DS XL. Nintendo has always seen female gamers as a very important market and they won't stop to release the right products for them. 

Edit: Didn't read the part about the N64 at first. I don't agree here, I think the N64's problem was the wrong software that was released for the console. Software that was more complex and complicated than that during the NES and SNES days (basically, everything went 3D. Even Mario).



Louie said:
Soundwave said:

It's possible I think if they have more hardware versions and different classes of hardware, thus basically incentivizing people to buy multiple Switch systems over the same 6 year period that would define a normal "generation". They can bend the rules there, much like tablet makers and phone makers do, as almost no one keeps one phone for like 6 straight years. 

I think you'll see the current Switch die-shrunk to a more efficient 16nm chip, and eventually that model will be smaller + cheaper and Nintendo will target that to a younger audience, but by mid-cycle IMO they'll have a higher powered Switch to replace the top end of the market (2DS/3DS likely completely gone at that point). 

They can do this much more easily now too because Nvidia because continues to iterate up on the Tegra chipset, so Nintendo doesn't have to pay a ton for R&D or shoulder the R&D burden themselves. 

Yeah, I certainly think they will do redesigns (and a more powerful Switch that basically plays the current docked mode in handheld mode would be too obvious of an opportunity to pass up on). 

As for your other post: I believe the Switch will sell very well to women once the price goes down and the right software releases. You can't have a breakout hit system without women, as women have about 80% of all purchasing power ("pitch to the b*tch" is what they teach you when you want to become a salesman). And I don't think smartphones will change that. Two months ago many people thought handheld gaming was dead because customers in general had moved on to smartphones. Apparently, they haven't. And once the software hits, women will be on board. I just recently read that Nintendo was very pleased with the 2DS because it sold so well to women and children and women are certainly the target audience for the 2DS XL. Nintendo has always seen female gamers as a very important market and they won't stop to release the right products for them. 

You can have a break out hit system without women. 

Playstation 4 is going to surpass the Wii easily. Heck, if you really look at it, the Playstation 3 even nearly matched the Wii despite a disastrous start at $600 that basically nullified its first year on market. 

Switch is also already proving it, it is outpacing any other Nintendo system in sales. It has appeal to core gamers that Nintendo hasn't had in decades. It looks cool and it's relatively high end for a portable device. 

Switch is very different from the Wii and will continue to be throughout it's lifespan. And that's OK. This notion that Wii is the only way to ever sell anything with a Nintendo logo on it is simply not true. We are seeing a Nintendo system where Just Dance sells like shit and 1,2 Switch is not really breaking out at all as a big hit still breaking records. 

Some of the audience base will be female sure, as I'm sure PS4 also has a decent take of women too. But it's never IMO going to be a huge driving force, and that's OK. People forget actually that Wii is not the highest software attach rate for a Nintendo system, it's actually GameCube (yeah go figure). If Nintendo can have a system that has the attach rate of the GameCube  but has 4-5x the hardware base, which I think is in play because of portability for one, that would be huge. 



Soundwave said:
Louie said:

 

You can have a break out hit system without women. 

Playstation 4 is going to surpass the Wii easily. Heck, if you really look at it, the Playstation 3 even nearly matched the Wii despite a disastrous start at $600 that basically nullified its first year on market. 

Switch is also already proving it, it is outpacing any other Nintendo system in sales. It has appeal to core gamers that Nintendo hasn't had in decades. It looks cool and it's relatively high end for a portable device. 

Switch is very different from the Wii and will continue to be throughout it's lifespan. And that's OK. This notion that Wii is the only way to ever sell anything with a Nintendo logo on it is simply not true. We are seeing a Nintendo system where Just Dance sells like shit and 1,2 Switch is not really breaking out at all as a big hit still breaking records. 

I don't think the PS4 is a breakout hit system to be honest. It's nowhere near the level of DS and Wii sales during gen 7. The DS regularly sold 500k+ units per week and shipped around 30m units two years in a row. So I agree with you that the Switch can be successful without women but to really become a massive seller like the DS it needs women on board, too. 

(And it's not like only men buy Playstation consoles.)