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Soundwave on 02 May 2017
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Louie said:
Soundwave said:

Switch is a very different system with very different demographic appeal than the Wii did, I think that's the danger in comparing the two too directly.

Not saying Switch can't hit 100+ million or 150 million or 70 million or whatever. But these are very different systems.

You have to consider even though 1,2 Switch is selling ok, it has probably a 30% attach rate, which means 70% of Switch owners are not buying it. And Just Dance looks like it's selling like crap. So the majority of Switch buyers are choosing not to buy either one of the two motion-only based games, whereas Wii was centrally driven by motion based games. By Nintendo's own metrics the audience is 90% male and over the age of 16, this is likely radically different from the Wii as well. 

Well, if you give hardcore gamers a mediocre Mario game that's not going to sell, either. Just wait until some good mass market games hit (Mario Kart is the first). The Switch will sell to females and kids once the games hit - Animal Crossing, Pokémon*, etc.

 

Believe, Soundwave! <3 

(*which sells to both adults and children)

Kids yes, eventually, females I'm not convinced about because of the warping effects of smartphones, but it doesn't need to. 

It can beat (yes) even the Wii without them. 

I think Switch has advantages people are not accounting for, more notably it has the highest appeal to core gamers I believe for any Nintendo system from the last 20 years. 

It doesn't look like a toy, doesn't feel like a toy, and isn't marketed like a toy. Those are huge game changers. Don't underestimate that. 

I think it could more akin to the N64 actually, which I still maintain could have sold 100+ million itself had it not been crippled by extremely restrictive cartridge issues. Today cartridges are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay cheaper and can hold a ton of data so it's not an issue that would castrate the system's flow of software. 

Back then a 8MB (1/64th of a CD) cartridge cost $20-$30 just for the cartridge. Today a 16GB (1/3 of a Blu-Ray disc) card costs maybe $3 at the manufacturing level if not less on top of system's having internal storage for cheap that further installs and much better compression techniques available today.