There is not even a contest there, the Wii.
Wii. While the Switch is an enticing concept for gamers, my grandma and grandpa and jenny from the office won't care about it. I say it does around the same as 3DS at best.
Soundwave said:
I've answered why in other threads, so I'm not going to go deep into it, but fundamentally I think a lot of people here don't understand the female demographics nor do they understand the impact of the smartphone on said demographic. And they also think smartphones are just some minor blip on the radar. But I will say this -- even Mr. Miyamoto has said he cannot get his wife to play Nintendo console games, he brings them home, but she doesn't play them. But she will play smartphone games. Even Mr. Miyamoto can't even win this arguement, good luck to the rest of you. Too many people are very naive on this board about smartphone's impact on the gaming sector, they don't understand how much has changed. Hell, smartphones will soon be a bigger industry than console gaming, but's not not neccessarily console gaming shrinking, it's simply a huge other industry that's been created on top of consoles. But take a wild guess which demographics that industry is taking from, because it's not dogs & cats. And people are still buying PS4s/XBoxes/Switches (mainly men), so it's not from that audience. So who could be left? Well if you actually do research on who plays smartphone games, it's actually majority female to boot, they are more than half the smartphone gaming audience. That's incredible. |
The creator of the Professor Layton series said the same thing. Women are simply more attracted to different things- that's what the demographics show. They made the game to attract women, which would bring in casuals too. Very interesting stuff honestly
The Wii. I don't really picture any scenario where Switch will sell more than it. Kimishima's sales prediction for Switch (which is same level as Wii, if I am not mistaken) is overly optimistic but extremely improbable.
Just want to add that 2 of Nintendo's 4 handhelds have broken 100 million units sold- The original Gameboy and the DS. The worst selling handheld was the 3DS which is still over 60 million. 100 million sales for a Nintendo handheld is not unrealistic.
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The GBA could've gotten their too had the PSP and DS coming out in 2004, 3 years into its life, cut its legs from underneath.
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I do not see the Switch outselling the Wii, but I think it will do really well (not sure how many units LTD though).
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The original gb and ds came out in a different time. Mobile gaming is extremely popular. No handheld is going to sell a 100 million again
Rem87919394 said: The original gb and ds came out in a different time. Mobile gaming is extremely popular. No handheld is going to sell a 100 million again |
Still GBA would've likely sold over 100 million fairly easily itself had it not been prematurely pushed off the market.
That said, yes the portable market has obviously changed. But Switch is a different kind of product too and is reaching demographics the GBA could not.
There are also things Nintendo could do with the Switch hardware ecosystem IMO that compound sales, like I do think there will be a mid-gen Switch refresh around 2020 (current Switch will then be redesigned on 16nm eventually and aimed more at kids eventually, newer Switch model will continue to serve the lucrative higher end market at $300).