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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many million sellers will the Switch have after a year?

 

How many million sellers will the Switch have after a year?

1-2. 17 3.44%
 
3-4. 63 12.75%
 
5-6. 140 28.34%
 
7-8. 120 24.29%
 
9-10. 66 13.36%
 
More than 10 million sellers. 88 17.81%
 
Total:494
Mnementh on 05 May 2017

Sure: BOTW, MK8D, 1-2-Switch, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon2
Probably: Minecraft, Skyrim, Arms, Fire Emblem Heroes, Dragon Quest XI
Possible: Xeno2



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curl-6 on 06 May 2017

I think there's one game people are overlooking: Sonic Forces.

Sonic games typically sell well on Nintendo platforms; Colours, Secret Rings, Black Knight, and Unleashed all passed a million on Wii, while Adventure 2, Heroes, and DX passed a million on Gamecube.

Even if it doesn't get there by the end of Switch's first year, I'd be surprised if Forces doesn't cross the million mark on Switch eventually. (Unless it turns out to be another Boom/06 fiasco)



LipeJJ on 06 May 2017

1- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
2- 1-2-Switch
3- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
4- Minecraft
5- Arms
6- Splatoon 2
7- Mario vs Rabbids (if true)
8- The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
9- Super Mario Odyssey

10- Dragon Quest XI

Possible:

1- Snipperclips (over 300k first month)
2- Fire Emblem Warriors
3- Xenoblade Chronicles 2
4- Super Bomberman R
5- Sonic Forces
6- Sonic Mania 
7- Fifa 18

8- Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers

9- Whatever the hell Nintendo announces at E3 (Super Smash Bros. port or many other possible reveals)


So we're definitely looking at more than 10 games for the first year alone.



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VGPolyglot on 06 May 2017

I'll just say 8. Why? I don't know, it just looked like a good number. Or maybe because MK8's on my mind?



the_dengle on 06 May 2017
curl-6 said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Super Mario Odyssey - (Most 3D Mario games sell at least 10 million)

Not quite most; 3/6 to date.

Don't be shy. Mario 64 counts twice.



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Alby_da_Wolf on 07 May 2017

5 or 6. It could be more, but it looks like Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart and Splatoon are going to take the lion's share and leave space for a very few other million sellers this year. I could be wrong, but current sales give me this impression.



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Alkibiádēs on 07 May 2017

10 million sellers:

- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (including Wii U version however)
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
- Splatoon 2
- Super Mario Odyssey

1 million sellers:

- 1-2 Switch
- Arms
- Fire Emblem Warriors

- Minecraft

- Sonic Mania




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Wyrdness on 07 May 2017

My guess is around 6.

BOTW*
Mario Kart 8D*
Splatoon 2
Mario Odyssey
Minecraft
DQXI (if it releases this year on Switch)

* = Already a million seller.



strider9981 on 07 May 2017

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Mbolibombo on 07 May 2017
Alby_da_Wolf said:
5 or 6. It could be more, but it looks like Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart and Splatoon are going to take the lion's share and leave space for a very few other million sellers this year. I could be wrong, but current sales give me this impression.

I dont know man, 5 is a bit low imo. But yeah, at thery least 5 possibly a whole lot more.

  • 1-2 Switch are almost there. Pretty sure it will grind itself to 1Million sells. '
  • Zelda: BotW - already confirmed
  • MK8: Confirmed
  • Splatoon 2 - Lock
  • Super Mario - Lock
That is set in stone. Then we have these games that I would give at least a chance to pass 1 million this year
  • Arms - New Nintendo IP, I'm pretty sure this will pass 1 million, would be very surprised if it did not.
  • Skyrim - dedicated fans, playing it on the go? Will get people to dip again. Nintendo is the only platform not yet exposed to Skyrim so there's possibly of a new big userbase here.
  • Minecraft - Well.. it's Minecraft.
  • Super Bomberman R - Halfway there in a month.. Could see it leg it's way to a million
  • Snipperclips - 300k in month one. I'd say it has a chance
And the Sleepers / longshots
  • Fifa 18 - could end up anywhere. Huge IP, once again trying out Nintendo.. 
  • Fire Emblem Warriors. Pretty sure it will leg itself to a million, not sure about year 1 though
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - Will become a million seller at one point.. probably not year 1 though.
  • Yooka Laylee - Just a hunch, it's so Nintendo-esque. 
  • Sonic Forces - Coul be a holiday title.. Always do well on Nintendo systems.
  • <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->Dragon Quest XI - Depending on release date, this will sell a million with ease.. but year 1? if it releases sooner rather than later for sure.
Then we coul possibly or likely see another few first party releases from Nintendo and they are always a threat. I think 8 or so is a realistic goal