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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many million sellers will the Switch have after a year?

 

How many million sellers will the Switch have after a year?

1-2. 17 3.44%
 
3-4. 63 12.75%
 
5-6. 140 28.34%
 
7-8. 120 24.29%
 
9-10. 66 13.36%
 
More than 10 million sellers. 88 17.81%
 
Total:494

https://mynintendonews.com/2017/05/04/mario-kart-8-deluxe-passes-one-million-sales-worldwide-in-its-first-weekend/

Mario Kart 8Deluxe sold a million already. Updating list.



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I put 9-10.

Zelda
MK8D
1-2 Switch
Splatoon 2
Mario Odyssey
Bomerman R
Arms
Minecraft

That's 8 right there. What else is coming out? Xenoblade, Fire Emblem? Probably at least a couple we don't even know exist yet. My guess was probably low.



The rising tide lifts all boats. When the software sells like thing (due to hit titles), it makes people want to buy more games. People bought the system for Zelda but were also picking up Bomberman and 1-2-Switch with it as well. I'm sure this has also helped Puyo Puyo Tetris. The Games that will break 1 million:

Zelda
1-2-Switch (On track according to Nintendo)
ARMS - (thinking 2-3 million)
Splatoon 2
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Skyrim - (There is a constituency of open world games that will form on Switch. This will make games like Skyrim big success. Also portability)
Minecraft - (See above)
Sonic Mania - (If you look at Nintendo's Youtube, it is one of the most popular videos from the presentation trailers. Over 4 million views. Has more than the official Sonic channel. This will be a surprise hit).
Super Mario Odyssey - (Most 3D Mario games sell at least 10 million)
Puyo Puyo Tetris (Think this will sell due to word of mouth. The demo was a great idea)
Sonic Forces - (Most Sonic games sell well on Nintendo platforms. I don't think this will be a huge hit, but it could break a million)

The last two may be a bit out there. Also, there will be more games at E3 that Nintendo hasn't shown. 10 games is doable.



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VideoGameAccountant said:

Super Mario Odyssey - (Most 3D Mario games sell at least 10 million)

Not quite most; 3/6 to date.

That said, I agree that Odyssey will pass 10 million, which will make it "most" again.

 

Slownenberg said:
 Xenoblade, Fire Emblem?

Fire Emblem itself is next year, Fire Emblem Warriors is this year.

As for Xenoblade, it's possible it might make it, but neither of its predecessors did, so it's not a lock.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Zelda
1-2
Kart8
Minecraft
SSF2
Arms
Spaltoon 2
FireEWarriors
Skyrim
Mario Odyssey

If Bomberman is really at 500k already this one too.

I voted 5-6 but I should have counted earlier.



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Eight.
MK8 Deluxe is confirmed million-seller, so is Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. 1-2 Switch is apparently well on its way there, but we'll see.

I see six more in the form of ARMS, Splatoon 2, and Super Mario Odyssey; supplemented with Super Bomberman R, the Skyrim remaster (easy sales in the form of people drawn by Zelda), and maybe 1-2 Switch.
I know I'm being very optimistic, so I can always say that I'm swapping out one or two of those with surprise announcements from Nintendo from E3, though I really want the new Bomberman game to hit 1 million sales.



 
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Sure: BOTW, MK8D, 1-2-Switch, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon2
Probably: Minecraft, Skyrim, Arms, Fire Emblem Heroes, Dragon Quest XI
Possible: Xeno2



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I think there's one game people are overlooking: Sonic Forces.

Sonic games typically sell well on Nintendo platforms; Colours, Secret Rings, Black Knight, and Unleashed all passed a million on Wii, while Adventure 2, Heroes, and DX passed a million on Gamecube.

Even if it doesn't get there by the end of Switch's first year, I'd be surprised if Forces doesn't cross the million mark on Switch eventually. (Unless it turns out to be another Boom/06 fiasco)



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

1- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
2- 1-2-Switch
3- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
4- Minecraft
5- Arms
6- Splatoon 2
7- Mario vs Rabbids (if true)
8- The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
9- Super Mario Odyssey

10- Dragon Quest XI

Possible:

1- Snipperclips (over 300k first month)
2- Fire Emblem Warriors
3- Xenoblade Chronicles 2
4- Super Bomberman R
5- Sonic Forces
6- Sonic Mania 
7- Fifa 18

8- Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers

9- Whatever the hell Nintendo announces at E3 (Super Smash Bros. port or many other possible reveals)


So we're definitely looking at more than 10 games for the first year alone.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

I'll just say 8. Why? I don't know, it just looked like a good number. Or maybe because MK8's on my mind?