The 3DS didn't sell through its initial shipment until 5 months later. You are badly misinformed if you think the 3DS did better at launch.

3DS NA shipments for March 2011: 1.32 million

3DS March 2011 NPD: 396k

Switch NA shipments for March 2017: 1.20 million

Switch March 2017 NPD: 906k

See the difference?

They don't need Pokémon OR big 3rd party support to do it (and hey need SOME decent support to fill gaps, and they've got some of the bigger ones like FIFA, NBA, and Dragon Quest - although at a later date) just play your cards right with your current games listed (Splatton 2 bundle = Japan goes NUTS. Super Mario Odyssey bundle = Very successful holiday season) and have a kickass E3 and they've got it.

You dont think PS4 at 199$ effects sales any if Switch is still 299$?

People hate paying more for less.

But mario is a big title, and people love trendy looking devices, so it being a handheld too, might be enough.

I still think Nintendo shouldnt let the other 2 get 100$ cheaper than them.

If PS4/XB1 goes to 199$, I expect nintendo goes 249$.

It took the 3DS 5 months to sell 900k in the US.

March: 396,000
April: 194,000
May: 97,000
June: 143,000
July: 85,000~ (915k)

That doesn't really matters, like I wrote, 3DS from start sold less than Nintendo predicted and expected, Nintendo wasn't happy at all with 3DS sales and thats why 3DS had fast and big price cut. While Switch is quite opposite, its selling better and demand is stronger than Nintendo expected, that's why Nintendo shiped more units than they initially planned in March and that's why they decided to double Switch production.

Of Course we can wait and see, but current great sales and future strong releases tells us that Switch will most likely continue selling good.

Japan=Games

Yeah, I agree. Their announced lineup should keep momentum up.

To look at it mathematically: If we assume that over the holidays the Switch sells for 3 extra months (double the amount in November and triple the amount in December), we have to divide that 10 million through 15, to get an average for a normal month of about 700K (With the 700K average they end up with 10.5 million). That seems doable.

They need to keep marketing and not just blind marketing they need to keep marketing to an older audience. 

Above is all good. This shit is not good:

Fuck your family time. 

They need to understand this audience is driving Switch adoption right now and they need to keep the foot on the gas pedal. Also marketing at key events like more sports events (already did Superbowl, in Europe they should market during soccer, and the NBA Finals are just around the corner too). 

*Do not* fall into the trap of marketing towards kids, Nintendo. Even kids don't want that. The Switch is considered "cool", you need to keep marketing to adults, because even kids like that. 

Beyond that just keep the games coming. Maybe they could do a smaller price cut to like $269.99 + Mario Kart 8 DX bundled ... that wouldn't be bad for the holidays. Software library looks solid if Smash Deluxe or Pokemon Stars is coming this year too. Third parties need to step their game up, now is a good time for Nintendo to call publishers that are not on board because they have the leverage of a great launch. 

10 million should be easy though, they just sold almost 3 million in a single non-holiday month. 

Mario Odyssey basically ensures Nintendo will reach 10 mill by next year, if not that they have Pokemon. I don't think a price cut is necessary but I do think that a price cut will be put into action around the holidays or perhaps a bundle of some sort.

Pokemon and animal crossing.. THE 3ds would be no more and the switch will sell even more than it is now