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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch launch numbers are meaningless

jonathanalis said:
Yeah, launch are meaningless.
But switch has something wii U didnt have: great initial stream of games.
The big system sellers were too sparse, and took long to come.
3D mario took 1 year to come, MK8 took 1 year an half. smash 2, but it was already launched on 3DS, splatoon took 2 and half, and mario maker almost 3. No new zelda in 4 and half years.
On switch we have the biggest zelda ever on launch, mario kart next month, splatoon soon and the 3D mario at the end of year. We have big hitters all over the year, and still E3 to announce more things.
And that has much more meaning for sales than launch sales.

Thats a huge factor that alot of people are ignoring, the far better stream of big hitting 1st party franchises.

3DS too had a very poor post-launch lineup.

March-Nintendogs+Cats, Pilotwings Resort, Steel Diver

June-Ocarina of Time 3D

September-Star Fox 64 3D

October-Pokemon Rumble Blast

November-Super Mario 3D Land

December-Mario Kart 7

It had an OK 1st party launch lineup and a very good last few months but there was a 6 month stretch with only a single major release right in the middle.

Also half of those games werent really big (Steel Diver, Pilotwings, Star Fox, Rumble Blast averaged about 800k) so it was about an 8 month stretch with just one big game.



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EricHiggin said:

Read the sentence in bold I wrote in my earlier post above. Either you didn't read through my post or missed that line based on your response.

Yes, a larger user base can lead to higher overall sales. I never said that wasn't possible or won't happen, just that taking into account the entire NiN user base right now, they may have to sell around 75 million units to actually "start" bringing in new users. Obviously the entire NiN handheld user base won't transfer over, unless NiN decides to make Switch the only available hardware or makes a dedicated Switch handheld.

Yes, having 75 million users only on Switch hardware and software will make NiN more money overall, but is that success? If they simply bring all of the NiN users into one community, without growing that user base very much, can that be considered successful? If it is, then why isn't NiN being considered an overall success right now? The user base is more likely to grow with that type of position, correct, but how many new users will be drawn in is questionable given the many factors and options in play.

The poor sales of Wii U are not solely because of the fact that NiN had a few platforms with different hardware and software. There was much more to it than just that.

The XB1 was also an "all in One" device, but it had its problems at launch, just like every system does, and look how things turned out for XB. I'm not saying XB1 is a total failure, but it could have been so much more. However, they have been working hard to try and turn things around and have been gaining lost ground. Launch is an indicator, but only a small piece of the overall pie.

You tell us. When is the Switch starting to be successful?



EricHiggin said:
mountaindewslave said:

they really are though, you don't realize the headache it is for a company like Nintendo to SEPERATELY develop games for TWO systems at a time. They have to set up differenet manufacturing processes for two systems, two mediums (cartridges 3DS, disks Wii U), split up their development teams to work on totally different systems, they can't push software out anywhere near as quickly for systems, etc.

Ask yourself why Sony completely abandoned pushing first party games out for the Vita early on? its the exact same reason, logistically its a nightmare to split up your first party dev teams to work on two different ecosystems (at least with serious investment)

You are asking all the wrong questions and seem to be under the belief that any console manufacturer can just snap their fingers and have a handheld and home console ecosystem in place without massive investments. Just the design and creation phases of systems is a lot of investment. 

Not to mention if you have 75 million people on one console (hypothetically) and are capable of pushing out high quality software at a much quicker rate on a unified platform- guess what? you are likely to sell a lot more software. One of the biggest problems why the Wii U and 3DS at times had underwhelming software sales were because of game droughts.

One platform helps alleviate that issue.

Its quite obvious why Nintendo has decided to potentially go with one platform, because its a massive amount of work to strongly (essentially exclusively) hold up two platforms. Sony failed miserably at doing it with the VIta, despite the PS4's success, and Nintendo was the opposite, succeeding with the 3DS, but failing on their home console. Literally the flip of the coin. And exactly why you probably won't see Sony bother with another handheld. (before someone brings up Sony VR, comparatively speaking they aren't really developing a lot of software for it, it was just an obvious accessory creation to cash on the craze since they knew that a lot of their PS4 adopters would find it easy to just get the Playstation version of VR)

but yes, Nintendo is way better off with one platform rather than two assuming they end up with roughly the same userbase. having like 75 million people on one platform rather than a weird division like 20+55, is preferable because they don't have to spend as much money and time CREATING an extra device and also marketing said extra device. And make no mistake, marketing all of the different 3DS and Wii U bundles add up.

Simplicity and straight forwardness is they key. I think a big part of why the Switch has good word of mouth and is off to a good start is BECAUSE its a unified all-in-one device for handheld and home gaming. People have wanted this from Nintendo for quite some time and its just business wise a mess to perpetually have two platforms and to divide your fanbase 

Read the sentence in bold I wrote in my earlier post above. Either you didn't read through my post or missed that line based on your response.

Yes, a larger user base can lead to higher overall sales. I never said that wasn't possible or won't happen, just that taking into account the entire NiN user base right now, they may have to sell around 75 million units to actually "start" bringing in new users. Obviously the entire NiN handheld user base won't transfer over, unless NiN decides to make Switch the only available hardware or makes a dedicated Switch handheld.

Yes, having 75 million users only on Switch hardware and software will make NiN more money overall, but is that success? If they simply bring all of the NiN users into one community, without growing that user base very much, can that be considered successful? If it is, then why isn't NiN being considered an overall success right now? The user base is more likely to grow with that type of position, correct, but how many new users will be drawn in is questionable given the many factors and options in play.

The poor sales of Wii U are not solely because of the fact that NiN had a few platforms with different hardware and software. There was much more to it than just that.

The XB1 was also an "all in One" device, but it had its problems at launch, just like every system does, and look how things turned out for XB. I'm not saying XB1 is a total failure, but it could have been so much more. However, they have been working hard to try and turn things around and have been gaining lost ground. Launch is an indicator, but only a small piece of the overall pie.

considering the last few gens have had the best selling sytems MAX out at like 100 million sales, then, yes, a 70 or 80 million sold Switch would be a success for Nintendo considering they likely would be able to push MORE software sales by having all of their development teams working in unision to release for the one platform.

It means they don't have a load of exclusives stuck on a, say, 10 million userbase (cough Wii U). Imagine if something like Mario Maker had released on a 50 million userbase instead of 10 or 12 million or whatever it came out on. 

That's the real difference here- the concept of having one unified userbase that will be able to buy every exclusive when it comes out. Rather than the past where you might have to port games back and forth from home console to a downgraded handheld version, or where the two wouldn't mix at all.

 

the failure of the Wii U is that it was MARKETED terribly. I am a massive Nintendo fan but it wasn't on my radar. By the time it had built more traction and slightly more awareness to gamers it had other problems- limited third party support, a slow release schedule from Nintendo (which could be correlated to having two platforms to support obviously), too few 'must have' titles, etc. And while (for some strange reason), people DO like the Wii, I think using the Wii name was part of the marketing confusion to casuals and marketing damage to hardcore gamers (i.e. traditional gamers don't generally like the Wii)

 

your Xbox analogy is terrible because it isn't an 'all in one' gaming device in terms of portability and then home gaming. The fact you even brought up that comparison is bizarre. Even if we talk about it being an all-in-one MEDIA device for home, that isn't really the case, Microsoft is the only one trying to convince people of that. Make no mistake, the majority of people buying an Xbox One are buying it simply and exclusively to game on

you're just spewing out nonsense based on NOTHING. a good launch is a good launch. The concept that its healthy to go on a forum and say "omg this good launch doesn't mean anything, and it wouldn't necessarily be good if Nintendo had an 80 million userbase" is just crazily desperate.

In the end a good launch is of course a good thing and certainly not a given (the Wii U did not have a particularly good HOLIDAY launch, the Vita did not have a good launch, etc.). Anyone who comes on here with the argument that a Switch at like 70 million would still not be a success for the big N is impossible to argue with because they're unhealthily negative towards Nintendo.



I get your points but I'm sure Nintendo disagrees. Good or bad surely they mean something for them and will determine their next steps. I agree it's too soon to tell anything though, I have seen a good amount of people claiming wii level of sales and they really mean it



https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/11/dont-read-too-much-into-the-ps4s-million-day-one-sales/



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mountaindewslave said:
EricHiggin said:

Read the sentence in bold I wrote in my earlier post above. Either you didn't read through my post or missed that line based on your response.

Yes, a larger user base can lead to higher overall sales. I never said that wasn't possible or won't happen, just that taking into account the entire NiN user base right now, they may have to sell around 75 million units to actually "start" bringing in new users. Obviously the entire NiN handheld user base won't transfer over, unless NiN decides to make Switch the only available hardware or makes a dedicated Switch handheld.

Yes, having 75 million users only on Switch hardware and software will make NiN more money overall, but is that success? If they simply bring all of the NiN users into one community, without growing that user base very much, can that be considered successful? If it is, then why isn't NiN being considered an overall success right now? The user base is more likely to grow with that type of position, correct, but how many new users will be drawn in is questionable given the many factors and options in play.

The poor sales of Wii U are not solely because of the fact that NiN had a few platforms with different hardware and software. There was much more to it than just that.

The XB1 was also an "all in One" device, but it had its problems at launch, just like every system does, and look how things turned out for XB. I'm not saying XB1 is a total failure, but it could have been so much more. However, they have been working hard to try and turn things around and have been gaining lost ground. Launch is an indicator, but only a small piece of the overall pie.

considering the last few gens have had the best selling sytems MAX out at like 100 million sales, then, yes, a 70 or 80 million sold Switch would be a success for Nintendo considering they likely would be able to push MORE software sales by having all of their development teams working in unision to release for the one platform.

It means they don't have a load of exclusives stuck on a, say, 10 million userbase (cough Wii U). Imagine if something like Mario Maker had released on a 50 million userbase instead of 10 or 12 million or whatever it came out on. 

That's the real difference here- the concept of having one unified userbase that will be able to buy every exclusive when it comes out. Rather than the past where you might have to port games back and forth from home console to a downgraded handheld version, or where the two wouldn't mix at all.

the failure of the Wii U is that it was MARKETED terribly. I am a massive Nintendo fan but it wasn't on my radar. By the time it had built more traction and slightly more awareness to gamers it had other problems- limited third party support, a slow release schedule from Nintendo (which could be correlated to having two platforms to support obviously), too few 'must have' titles, etc. And while (for some strange reason), people DO like the Wii, I think using the Wii name was part of the marketing confusion to casuals and marketing damage to hardcore gamers (i.e. traditional gamers don't generally like the Wii)

your Xbox analogy is terrible because it isn't an 'all in one' gaming device in terms of portability and then home gaming. The fact you even brought up that comparison is bizarre. Even if we talk about it being an all-in-one MEDIA device for home, that isn't really the case, Microsoft is the only one trying to convince people of that. Make no mistake, the majority of people buying an Xbox One are buying it simply and exclusively to game on

you're just spewing out nonsense based on NOTHING. a good launch is a good launch. The concept that its healthy to go on a forum and say "omg this good launch doesn't mean anything, and it wouldn't necessarily be good if Nintendo had an 80 million userbase" is just crazily desperate.

In the end a good launch is of course a good thing and certainly not a given (the Wii U did not have a particularly good HOLIDAY launch, the Vita did not have a good launch, etc.). Anyone who comes on here with the argument that a Switch at like 70 million would still not be a success for the big N is impossible to argue with because they're unhealthily negative towards Nintendo.

Your point about bringing all of the current users into a single community and that being a success for NiN, is your opinion and thats fine. I never said it didn't mean NiN wasn't successful, I simply asked does that make it successful? Everyone will have their own opinion on that.

You have to ask yourself as well, what does this mean for NiN's handheld user base though? What about those users that don't want a Switch but want something more along the lines of a 3DS? If NiN doesn't make another dedicated handheld, does that mean PS or MS can make a new handheld and take over that market? Would a Vita successor, who's sales comprised of previous Vita owners, 3DS owners, etc, be considered a success considering it wouldn't have any competition whatsoever because Switch is a hybrid console and not a handheld? If NiN does make another handheld to compete, does that now split their user base and no longer mean success?

You say my XB1 comparison is bizarre? You're the one who said the Switch was an "all in one device" that NiN fans have been waiting for. Well why are there things that the Switch can't do, that the XB1 can? What about the fact that Switch is a gen ahead of XB1, yet can't compete in terms of specs? Neither console is truly an "all in One" device (hence the quotations), but both consoles marketing are trying to make them seem like they are. My comparison of them isn't perfect, as nothing ever is, but it most certainly holds truth, and is far from "desperate".

A strong launch is a good thing. I don't disagree. What I'm saying is, assuming that means certain prosperity is misleading. That's not to say Switch is doomed by any means, but pretending its going to eventually sell PS3/360 like numbers because of a strong launch is quite ambitious thinking.

Again, I didn't say Switch won't or can't sell well, I just said launch sales figures are no guarantee of future success. My main point at the end of my first post was that holiday 2017 will be a much better indicator of how Switch sales will progress going forward. While Switch isn't really my "cup of tea", I hold no grudge against NiN and wish them the best of luck, but predicting/realizing 75+ million sales like PS3/360 however, is something only time will tell.



Lol, did someone really say switch selling "only" 75 million would be bad cause no numbers enough tohit what ninty had with handheld+console?
So sony must be in a bad spot now, cause vita was pretty much a failure and i don't see a vita 2 happening.



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F.Scofield said:
Lol, did someone really say switch selling "only" 75 million would be bad cause no numbers enough tohit what ninty had with handheld+console?
So sony must be in a bad spot now, cause vita was pretty much a failure and i don't see a vita 2 happening.

ya if PS4+Vita sells less than the 165 million that PS3+PSP sold than Sony is a failure despite making a few billion in profits vs a few billion in losses.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.