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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch launch numbers are meaningless

I don't think the Switch will have that much problems selling well initially, maybe up to its first holiday season, just based on the strength of Nintendo's big titles like Mario Odyssey and Splatoon 2. However, beyond that I think it will need a strong 3rd party support to continue selling well.

It is true though that launch window sales aren't really a very good indicator of a console's success in the long run.



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mountaindewslave said:
EricHiggin said:
It's not meaningless, but NiN's success may not simply be determined by how many Switch units they sell. They could sell 75 million and it may not matter overall. This is because of the Switch's hybrid design.

It's totally possible that based on these record breaking Switch sales so far, that this has/will lead to some, if not many of their handheld customers becoming hybrid customers instead.

If NiN ends up with 75 million Switch customers, but "loses" 50 million handheld customers because they bought into the hybrid concept, well then NiN isn't really that much better off. They may make more money overall do to having one main type of hardware and software, but that still doesn't make Switch itself a massive success. Sure it may look that way at 75 million sales, but that won't be the truth behind the scenes.

It wouldn't be much different than taking any PS customers and having them all buy a PS4 or having PC users who play XB games all buying a XB1. The sales of those consoles would be much higher, but the user base wouldn't be any larger and PS/XB income wouldn't be all that much higher either.

Holiday 2017 Switch sales will be the main indicator of how well the system will continue to sell going forward. If it can take its place amongst the PS4, Pro, XB1S, Scorpio, then its future is bright. If it fails to secure a position, then its future is bleak.

they really are though, you don't realize the headache it is for a company like Nintendo to SEPERATELY develop games for TWO systems at a time. They have to set up differenet manufacturing processes for two systems, two mediums (cartridges 3DS, disks Wii U), split up their development teams to work on totally different systems, they can't push software out anywhere near as quickly for systems, etc.

Ask yourself why Sony completely abandoned pushing first party games out for the Vita early on? its the exact same reason, logistically its a nightmare to split up your first party dev teams to work on two different ecosystems (at least with serious investment)

You are asking all the wrong questions and seem to be under the belief that any console manufacturer can just snap their fingers and have a handheld and home console ecosystem in place without massive investments. Just the design and creation phases of systems is a lot of investment. 

Not to mention if you have 75 million people on one console (hypothetically) and are capable of pushing out high quality software at a much quicker rate on a unified platform- guess what? you are likely to sell a lot more software. One of the biggest problems why the Wii U and 3DS at times had underwhelming software sales were because of game droughts.

One platform helps alleviate that issue.

Its quite obvious why Nintendo has decided to potentially go with one platform, because its a massive amount of work to strongly (essentially exclusively) hold up two platforms. Sony failed miserably at doing it with the VIta, despite the PS4's success, and Nintendo was the opposite, succeeding with the 3DS, but failing on their home console. Literally the flip of the coin. And exactly why you probably won't see Sony bother with another handheld. (before someone brings up Sony VR, comparatively speaking they aren't really developing a lot of software for it, it was just an obvious accessory creation to cash on the craze since they knew that a lot of their PS4 adopters would find it easy to just get the Playstation version of VR)

but yes, Nintendo is way better off with one platform rather than two assuming they end up with roughly the same userbase. having like 75 million people on one platform rather than a weird division like 20+55, is preferable because they don't have to spend as much money and time CREATING an extra device and also marketing said extra device. And make no mistake, marketing all of the different 3DS and Wii U bundles add up.

Simplicity and straight forwardness is they key. I think a big part of why the Switch has good word of mouth and is off to a good start is BECAUSE its a unified all-in-one device for handheld and home gaming. People have wanted this from Nintendo for quite some time and its just business wise a mess to perpetually have two platforms and to divide your fanbase 

Read the sentence in bold I wrote in my earlier post above. Either you didn't read through my post or missed that line based on your response.

Yes, a larger user base can lead to higher overall sales. I never said that wasn't possible or won't happen, just that taking into account the entire NiN user base right now, they may have to sell around 75 million units to actually "start" bringing in new users. Obviously the entire NiN handheld user base won't transfer over, unless NiN decides to make Switch the only available hardware or makes a dedicated Switch handheld.

Yes, having 75 million users only on Switch hardware and software will make NiN more money overall, but is that success? If they simply bring all of the NiN users into one community, without growing that user base very much, can that be considered successful? If it is, then why isn't NiN being considered an overall success right now? The user base is more likely to grow with that type of position, correct, but how many new users will be drawn in is questionable given the many factors and options in play.

The poor sales of Wii U are not solely because of the fact that NiN had a few platforms with different hardware and software. There was much more to it than just that.

The XB1 was also an "all in One" device, but it had its problems at launch, just like every system does, and look how things turned out for XB. I'm not saying XB1 is a total failure, but it could have been so much more. However, they have been working hard to try and turn things around and have been gaining lost ground. Launch is an indicator, but only a small piece of the overall pie.



RolStoppable said:
Safiir said:

Soo...how many units have been sold? Honest question. Apart from Japan I don't think we have information on the sales after the first couple of days?

The known minimum target for shipments in March is 2m and the system has been sold out worldwide for the most part. This means that Switch will clear the 2m mark with ease and comfortably beat the Wii U and Vita.

Wii U sell-through by the end of 2012 is estimated to be a little over 2m by VGC. That's 1.5 months for America, 1 month for Japan and 1 month for Europe. Wii U was readily available everywhere at that point in time, something that's not going to hold true for Switch.

Vita shipments reached 1.8m units worldwide by March 2012. That's 4 months for Japan, 1 month for America and 1 month for Europe. Sell-through was notably lower than that, because it wasn't hard to find Vitas on store shelves. Vita being mentioned in the OP serves no other purpose than attempting to lessen the bias.

Sounds reasonable.



Uh, by this point the Wii U was already in stock at many places. Resellers can still make a pretty penny on the console. Wii U's were being mass returned by resellers by this point.



True, but Switch can't sell worse than Wii U or Gamecube based on the titles coming to it alone. It's essentially a handheld posing as a console, so it'll get the same Japanese support that 3DS got...Pokemon, Yokai Watch (probably), Dragon Quest, etc. I agree that initial sales really don't mean anything. But somethings telling me Switch is going to perform exceptionally well. No worries on my end.



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Yeah, launch are meaningless.
But switch has something wii U didnt have: great initial stream of games.
The big system sellers were too sparse, and took long to come.
3D mario took 1 year to come, MK8 took 1 year an half. smash 2, but it was already launched on 3DS, splatoon took 2 and half, and mario maker almost 3. No new zelda in 4 and half years.
On switch we have the biggest zelda ever on launch, mario kart next month, splatoon soon and the 3D mario at the end of year. We have big hitters all over the year, and still E3 to announce more things.
And that has much more meaning for sales than launch sales.



Sure would mean something if it wasn't selling out, No?



I lost all faith in the Nintendo Switch, I saw it in person and it looks like a cheap toy. That means it will be a smashing hit, because I had a lot of faith on the WiiU and in the Vita and they flopped super hard.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

I see it doing well but not crazy. There's just not that craze for it whereas with Wii or PS4 it was talked about constantly. I could see it doing 70m tops



I am Iron Man

It's not really about numbers. It's how large the demand is, on top of it selling out at every retailer within hours.



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