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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch launch numbers are meaningless

RolStoppable said:
It's already too late for this thread.

At this point (four weeks after launch) Wii Us were readily available on store shelves. The Vita got declared to be the guaranteed loser after its second week in Japan, so by the time it launched in America and Europe it was already long over.

Calling launch numbers meaningless makes only sense when they don't line up with someone's personal wishes.

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/11/dont-read-too-much-into-the-ps4s-million-day-one-sales/

Sold more than 1million units on launch day in the USA...... dont read too much into it.

Guy that wrote it probably likes xbox more than playstation.

 

Its def. not a bad thing it seems to be selling well.

Its still too early to say one way or another, where the Switch will end up, but so far its looking good.



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your post is a big waste of space OP because its deliberately ignorant.

you could find Wii U's on the shelf all over during like LAUNCH WEEK. all over. If you don't believe me, there are photos everywhere from the launch time period. Its a fact, regardless of region.

The other fact you act ignorant towards is that the Switch launched in SPRING. Spring is not traditionally a heavy time period for gaming at all. In fact its the dry period after the holiday hot season (November-Jan/Feb). People's wallets have already been emptied for xmas and grandparents (among others) aren't thinking of last minute purchases to give someone like they would be in December for Christmas

 

obviously the Switch had a good launch. in March selling like 2 million systems with like one game at launch (Zelda) is stupendously great in terms of pushing consoles. If they had a lineup of Zelda+Mario+Pokemon and only pushed that many consoles then I'd agree with you, but they didn't. Also Nintendo only allotted so many systems (or were only able to manufacture so many systems). they've sold out of what they had and people are managing to resell the system online for like $400. 

If you're in a market where a system is hard to find a month after release and people are paying considerably over retail value secondhand online- that suggests great success at launch.

Now the implication that most game system launches go well- that's true. But we do know for a fact that the Switch is off to a solid start. The Vita and Wii U weren't selling over MSRP online on Amazon/Ebay even a WEEK after launch. You could find them at stores.

Its literally impossible for Nintendo (or scalpers) to force demand because in the end there have to be enough people out there willing to pay for the system's store price or ABOVE the store price.

Demand is there.

Will demand stay? will the Switch Library be strong enough to consistently push sales until the holidays? that's a question mark. But there is no debate about launch at this point. A lot of that might be due to Zelda being a giant hit with critics and consumers but irregardless, the system has done well. And again, the difference between launching in March and launching in November is GIGANTIC. 



I think launch numbers are meaningless for any console; what really matters in the long run its the steady sales (with some peaks because holidays and shyte) instead of the "hype-because-its-new sales". But thats the only thing I find valid on your OP. Not trying to sound rude, just giving my opinion about it.



                          

"We all make choices, but in the end, our choices make us" - Andrew Ryan, Bioshock.

EricHiggin said:
It's not meaningless, but NiN's success may not simply be determined by how many Switch units they sell. They could sell 75 million and it may not matter overall. This is because of the Switch's hybrid design.

It's totally possible that based on these record breaking Switch sales so far, that this has/will lead to some, if not many of their handheld customers becoming hybrid customers instead.

If NiN ends up with 75 million Switch customers, but "loses" 50 million handheld customers because they bought into the hybrid concept, well then NiN isn't really that much better off. They may make more money overall do to having one main type of hardware and software, but that still doesn't make Switch itself a massive success. Sure it may look that way at 75 million sales, but that won't be the truth behind the scenes.

It wouldn't be much different than taking any PS customers and having them all buy a PS4 or having PC users who play XB games all buying a XB1. The sales of those consoles would be much higher, but the user base wouldn't be any larger and PS/XB income wouldn't be all that much higher either.

Holiday 2017 Switch sales will be the main indicator of how well the system will continue to sell going forward. If it can take its place amongst the PS4, Pro, XB1S, Scorpio, then its future is bright. If it fails to secure a position, then its future is bleak.

they really are though, you don't realize the headache it is for a company like Nintendo to SEPERATELY develop games for TWO systems at a time. They have to set up differenet manufacturing processes for two systems, two mediums (cartridges 3DS, disks Wii U), split up their development teams to work on totally different systems, they can't push software out anywhere near as quickly for systems, etc.

Ask yourself why Sony completely abandoned pushing first party games out for the Vita early on? its the exact same reason, logistically its a nightmare to split up your first party dev teams to work on two different ecosystems (at least with serious investment)

You are asking all the wrong questions and seem to be under the belief that any console manufacturer can just snap their fingers and have a handheld and home console ecosystem in place without massive investments. Just the design and creation phases of systems is a lot of investment. 

Not to mention if you have 75 million people on one console (hypothetically) and are capable of pushing out high quality software at a much quicker rate on a unified platform- guess what? you are likely to sell a lot more software. One of the biggest problems why the Wii U and 3DS at times had underwhelming software sales were because of game droughts.

One platform helps alleviate that issue.

Its quite obvious why Nintendo has decided to potentially go with one platform, because its a massive amount of work to strongly (essentially exclusively) hold up two platforms. Sony failed miserably at doing it with the VIta, despite the PS4's success, and Nintendo was the opposite, succeeding with the 3DS, but failing on their home console. Literally the flip of the coin. And exactly why you probably won't see Sony bother with another handheld. (before someone brings up Sony VR, comparatively speaking they aren't really developing a lot of software for it, it was just an obvious accessory creation to cash on the craze since they knew that a lot of their PS4 adopters would find it easy to just get the Playstation version of VR)

but yes, Nintendo is way better off with one platform rather than two assuming they end up with roughly the same userbase. having like 75 million people on one platform rather than a weird division like 20+55, is preferable because they don't have to spend as much money and time CREATING an extra device and also marketing said extra device. And make no mistake, marketing all of the different 3DS and Wii U bundles add up.

Simplicity and straight forwardness is they key. I think a big part of why the Switch has good word of mouth and is off to a good start is BECAUSE its a unified all-in-one device for handheld and home gaming. People have wanted this from Nintendo for quite some time and its just business wise a mess to perpetually have two platforms and to divide your fanbase 



When I bought my 3DS, the clerk at GameStop told me something along the lines of "It hasn't been a huge seller."

It may run out of steam but I'd be more worried if it didn't sell out.



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bonzobanana said:
For a lot people I think who bought the wii u, the realisation was it was very poor and there was a lot of negativity about the console but the Switch launches with an amazing game and at least for sometime it will be seen in a very positive light.

It's possible the only difference is the cliff edge where sales drop dramatically is just delayed with the Switch. It seems to me though with April Mario Kart that cliff edge is more likely around May/June. There is also the online charging to come and a greater understanding by a wider audience the very low performance level of the Switch. The wii u had a lot of multiformat games reviewed that basically criticised the wii u as the weakest which probably did a lot of damage to wii u sales. Such Switch reviews haven't really started yet. I think generally people don't want to buy the weakest versions of games even if it gives them portability. The realisation of the wii u's very low performance level seemed to have been a similar time to the huge drop in sales.

It does seem to be for me at least the wii situation. I was amazed when it sold well being basically just a gamecube with a motion sensing controller and games having a very limited performance level but the wii sold far higher than you'd think based on the sum of its parts and the same seems to be true of Switch. It maybe took me 2 years to get a wii possibly more and I only bought a cheap japanese model that was £45. I thought it was pretty awful and was mainly playing my gamecube games on it. At the time most of the games were dire and a throw back to the last generation in performance. I know its often claimed the failure of wii u is based on consumer confusion about whether it was a separate home console or an accessory for wii but I think low satisfaction levels with the wii was also a factor. At the time the wii was criticised as a dust collector.

right, the massively popular Splatoon in like June or whatever is going to be when the sales 'dive' for the Switch (*sarcasm*). your argument is sort of weak though- the 3DS to this day is known as being incredibly weak compared to the Vita- but it still sells incredibly well.

I think you overestimate the majority of the market- the average gamer is likely more about the gameplay experience than the graphics. and by average I'm talking the person who just throws on Team Fortress or Pokemon or Tetris- like a system's success is clearly based on a lot of variables (the 3DS again shows that as it still is selling great now).

also the whole concept that the Wii is a dust collector is kind of hilarious because people onliny still buy them a lot (look at like Amazon, they seem to be a popular item still.....). The Wii became a 'dust collector' late in its life cycle because Nintendo stopped releasing games on it (look at the Wii from like 2009-2011 or whatever, its a dry series of releases).

just simply looking at the Switch as "omg the Xbox One and Switch are more powerful" shows you're not really looking at it how a lot of consumers do. You're obviously not someone who has buying Nintendo's handhelds. there is some subset of the gaming world who are quite interested in the specific games  over anything else. And in the end the 'sell' of the Switch isn't graphics (although the graphics are exceptionally good for a handheld), but the multi-function of the device in terms of gaming at home and gaming on the go.

If Nintendo can get things like an Internet Browser, Netflix, the Virtual Console- on there by summer- I think the system will maintain great momentum. I mean if it gets those things it will practically double as a regular basic tablet which is another bonus. 



@OP

 

You could easily find a Wii U in it's launch week on shelves.



RolStoppable said:
JRPGfan said:

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/11/dont-read-too-much-into-the-ps4s-million-day-one-sales/

Sold more than 1million units on launch day in the USA...... dont read too much into it.

Guy that wrote it probably likes xbox more than playstation.

 

Its def. not a bad thing it seems to be selling well.

Its still too early to say one way or another, where the Switch will end up, but so far its looking good.

Your link is an article about day one sales and other first week/first two weeks performances where such an argument still has merit, but Switch is already farther along the timeline and not comparable anymore to the trajectories of the Wii U and Vita which were cited in the original post. This kind of argument needed to be posted two to three weeks ago, because today it doesn't work anymore. Hence why I said that it's too late for it.

Also, in regards to your article, "don't read too much into it" has a nuance to it. Launch sales still mean something based on the wording. This is contrary to the message of this thread that launch sales are meaningless.

Soo...how many units have been sold? Honest question. Apart from Japan I don't think we have information on the sales after the first couple of days?



Safiir said:
RolStoppable said:

Your link is an article about day one sales and other first week/first two weeks performances where such an argument still has merit, but Switch is already farther along the timeline and not comparable anymore to the trajectories of the Wii U and Vita which were cited in the original post. This kind of argument needed to be posted two to three weeks ago, because today it doesn't work anymore. Hence why I said that it's too late for it.

Also, in regards to your article, "don't read too much into it" has a nuance to it. Launch sales still mean something based on the wording. This is contrary to the message of this thread that launch sales are meaningless.

Soo...how many units have been sold? Honest question. Apart from Japan I don't think we have information on the sales after the first couple of days?

if reports are true than they increased launch month shipments from 2 million to 2.5 million and here we are at the end of the month with shortages so sales should be something like 2.3 million or so.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

WiiU sold about 2.5MM 2MM until it died off. Switch is basically there now.

We'll have to see how Switch does over summer as MK8D and Splatoon land (along with several other games) and its post E3 bonanza before you can claim anything about its launch.

However, ignoring raw numbers, I can say my world of co-workers etc have been much more vocal and have purchased Switches. Only about 10% actually had WiiUs. Granted, it still may be all due to Zelda's awesomeness.

 

EDIT

Here is my thread where I skillfully tracked WiiU and other systems launches.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=151051

WiiU was in stock before XMAS and sold 2.3MM in Nov/Dec 2012. With that in mind, I'd put the die off closer to 2MM.

Switch is already passed that.