The Switch launch numbers are meaningless

[EricHiggin]

mountaindewslave said:

EricHiggin said:

Read the sentence in bold I wrote in my earlier post above. Either you didn't read through my post or missed that line based on your response.

Yes, a larger user base can lead to higher overall sales. I never said that wasn't possible or won't happen, just that taking into account the entire NiN user base right now, they may have to sell around 75 million units to actually "start" bringing in new users. Obviously the entire NiN handheld user base won't transfer over, unless NiN decides to make Switch the only available hardware or makes a dedicated Switch handheld.

Yes, having 75 million users only on Switch hardware and software will make NiN more money overall, but is that success? If they simply bring all of the NiN users into one community, without growing that user base very much, can that be considered successful? If it is, then why isn't NiN being considered an overall success right now? The user base is more likely to grow with that type of position, correct, but how many new users will be drawn in is questionable given the many factors and options in play.

The poor sales of Wii U are not solely because of the fact that NiN had a few platforms with different hardware and software. There was much more to it than just that.

The XB1 was also an "all in One" device, but it had its problems at launch, just like every system does, and look how things turned out for XB. I'm not saying XB1 is a total failure, but it could have been so much more. However, they have been working hard to try and turn things around and have been gaining lost ground. Launch is an indicator, but only a small piece of the overall pie.

considering the last few gens have had the best selling sytems MAX out at like 100 million sales, then, yes, a 70 or 80 million sold Switch would be a success for Nintendo considering they likely would be able to push MORE software sales by having all of their development teams working in unision to release for the one platform.

It means they don't have a load of exclusives stuck on a, say, 10 million userbase (cough Wii U). Imagine if something like Mario Maker had released on a 50 million userbase instead of 10 or 12 million or whatever it came out on. 

That's the real difference here- the concept of having one unified userbase that will be able to buy every exclusive when it comes out. Rather than the past where you might have to port games back and forth from home console to a downgraded handheld version, or where the two wouldn't mix at all.

the failure of the Wii U is that it was MARKETED terribly. I am a massive Nintendo fan but it wasn't on my radar. By the time it had built more traction and slightly more awareness to gamers it had other problems- limited third party support, a slow release schedule from Nintendo (which could be correlated to having two platforms to support obviously), too few 'must have' titles, etc. And while (for some strange reason), people DO like the Wii, I think using the Wii name was part of the marketing confusion to casuals and marketing damage to hardcore gamers (i.e. traditional gamers don't generally like the Wii)

your Xbox analogy is terrible because it isn't an 'all in one' gaming device in terms of portability and then home gaming. The fact you even brought up that comparison is bizarre. Even if we talk about it being an all-in-one MEDIA device for home, that isn't really the case, Microsoft is the only one trying to convince people of that. Make no mistake, the majority of people buying an Xbox One are buying it simply and exclusively to game on

you're just spewing out nonsense based on NOTHING. a good launch is a good launch. The concept that its healthy to go on a forum and say "omg this good launch doesn't mean anything, and it wouldn't necessarily be good if Nintendo had an 80 million userbase" is just crazily desperate.

In the end a good launch is of course a good thing and certainly not a given (the Wii U did not have a particularly good HOLIDAY launch, the Vita did not have a good launch, etc.). Anyone who comes on here with the argument that a Switch at like 70 million would still not be a success for the big N is impossible to argue with because they're unhealthily negative towards Nintendo.

Your point about bringing all of the current users into a single community and that being a success for NiN, is your opinion and thats fine. I never said it didn't mean NiN wasn't successful, I simply asked does that make it successful? Everyone will have their own opinion on that.

You have to ask yourself as well, what does this mean for NiN's handheld user base though? What about those users that don't want a Switch but want something more along the lines of a 3DS? If NiN doesn't make another dedicated handheld, does that mean PS or MS can make a new handheld and take over that market? Would a Vita successor, who's sales comprised of previous Vita owners, 3DS owners, etc, be considered a success considering it wouldn't have any competition whatsoever because Switch is a hybrid console and not a handheld? If NiN does make another handheld to compete, does that now split their user base and no longer mean success?

You say my XB1 comparison is bizarre? You're the one who said the Switch was an "all in one device" that NiN fans have been waiting for. Well why are there things that the Switch can't do, that the XB1 can? What about the fact that Switch is a gen ahead of XB1, yet can't compete in terms of specs? Neither console is truly an "all in One" device (hence the quotations), but both consoles marketing are trying to make them seem like they are. My comparison of them isn't perfect, as nothing ever is, but it most certainly holds truth, and is far from "desperate".

A strong launch is a good thing. I don't disagree. What I'm saying is, assuming that means certain prosperity is misleading. That's not to say Switch is doomed by any means, but pretending its going to eventually sell PS3/360 like numbers because of a strong launch is quite ambitious thinking.

Again, I didn't say Switch won't or can't sell well, I just said launch sales figures are no guarantee of future success. My main point at the end of my first post was that holiday 2017 will be a much better indicator of how Switch sales will progress going forward. While Switch isn't really my "cup of tea", I hold no grudge against NiN and wish them the best of luck, but predicting/realizing 75+ million sales like PS3/360 however, is something only time will tell.