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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence Believes Nintendo Switch Can Shift 40 Million Units by 2020

Normchacho said:
Hhhmmm...I could see it, but I think it's far from certain what the Switch will sell.

Actually...that's faster than the Xbox One. I'm not so sure the Switch will be able to pull that off.

So I was thinking about this earlier. Isn't Nintendo kind of the polar opposite of Microsoft right now? MS sell most of its systems because of multiplats while it has lackluster exclusives (sales wise). Nintendo sells most of its systems because of exclusives with lackluster multiplat support. Microsoft has poor Japanese third party support resulting in worse sales in Japan. Nintendo has poor western 3rd party support, resulting in worse sales in the west. Just something to think about.

Also, I don't think it should be understated just how bad MS was set back at its launch and perception to this day. Nintendo isn't anywhere near that position right now. Switch still looks good from a PR perspective, even if there are concerns being voiced. It undoubtably will be a massive hit in Japan, something neither manufacturer is doing right now, and it has a steady cadence of games that will help drive the installed base in the west at least respectably.



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Hynad said:
curl-6 said:

But if they continue to support 2 systems "just until Switch takes off", that may actually prevent it from ever taking off. By the time they finally cut 3DS loose, Switch may have missed its chance and become what Wii U was by 2015, a system irrevocably tainted by the image of being a "failed system".

They supported the DS and the Wii at the same time and both were outstanding successes.

They were able to do so because Wii games were 6th gen in complexity and DS games 4th/5th gen. Not so easy now that one platform is PS3/360 tier and the other 6th gen tier.



ironmanDX said:
If they release a Switch mini, say... Christmas 2018... that is essentially a dedicated handheld and a true replacement for the 3DS, yet still sharing the exact games library.


Easily. It'll happen too. You read it here first.

Nobody read it here first, its been stated 1000 times on this site by now.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 said:
Hynad said:

They supported the DS and the Wii at the same time and both were outstanding successes.

They were able to do so because Wii games were 6th gen in complexity and DS games 4th/5th gen. Not so easy now that one platform is PS3/360 tier and the other 6th gen tier.

It's one gen behind like the Wii was. I don't see how this is any different. 



Ljink96 said:
Soundwave said:

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

3DS was a disaster at $250 before it really picked up after the price cut. If 3DS owners werent' willing to buy a 3DS at $250, they really aren't willing to buy a portable device at $300 if they're going to treat it like a portable device or be seen as people who want a 3DS successor. 

If Nintendo wants to get past my predicted amount they're not going to do it with $80 pro controllers, no Switch Price cut, $90 pieces of plastic with 3 ports, etc. Money talks. If they plan on suckering early Switch adpoters with the pricing, they have to do another ambassador program to compensate as well. Or else people aren't going to be too enthused I'd imagine.

Comparing it directly to 3DS price for price doesnt make much sense for multiple reasons.

1. This is the biggest reason, 1st party support. 3DS had Nintendogs, Pilotwings & Steel Diver day 1. Only 1 other 1st party game released between the March launch and the August price cut, Ocarina of Time 3D in June. On the other hand Switch launches with Zelda and is expected to have Mario Kart, Arms & Splatoon in the following 4-5 months.

2. Switch is pretty powerful for a handheld gaming device in 2017 while 3DS was pretty weak even by 2011 standards.

3. The concept of being able to play on the go or on the TV is far more compelling than glasses free 3D.

3DS doing poorly at $250 does not mean Switch will sell poorly at $300.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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curl-6 said:
Ljink96 said:
They must know something that we don't. Because after what has been shown, I'm making predictions of 20-30 lifetime... but I'm just a broke ass college student, what do I know.

If they refuse to cut the price like they did with Wii U, I'd say even the 10-20 million range is within the realm of possibility.

Given all the factors it seems to have against it at the moment, 40 million by 2020 would be a big win in my opinion.

I do agree with the need for a price cut to sustain long term sales, I totally agree. It should be easily justifiable for Nintendo too, the price of their tech should go down a fair bit in the medium term. Having said that, I feel that 40 million units by 2020 isn't a stretch either way, but if they want to really solidify a strong place in the market, they need that price cut (probably more than once).



If this prediction were true: 40 million would put the Switch pretty close to Nintendo 64-like sales performance. What I can read from that would be that the Switch would have some pretty amazing games that would make it a serious hit in at least one of the regions but that the hardware features are going to be kind of hit and miss and will probably hold the console back from serious success.

That was more or less the fate of the N64: it had amazing first and second party games that really defined the generation but it was also a console that made some serious mistakes with hardware (cartridges, difficult to design games for) and this held it back with 3rd parties and ultimately gave Sony the victory crown.

On the positive side, 40 million would be enough to keep Nintendo in the hardware business and I think that they could make some significant money at this install base (they can easily get a few 10 million+ sellers at a 40 million install base). Pokemon, Zelda and Mario can be major money makers on this console.



I predicted 45m lifetime. So it is in line with my predictions. Good for their home console. Bad for their handheld. Hopefully a 3DS successor is announced soon.



curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

They decided to let the Wii U die because rescuing the 3DS caused them extreme pain (first loss in company history), they weren't willing to do it twice within 2 years. 

Switch will get Nintendo's full focus this gen, it's their "only child" this gen. 

There is no 3DS safety blanket, 3DS is old as balls, by 2018/19 it won't have any future left, and even for all the bruhaha over a "3DS resurgance" it's fairly modest and still selling well under 10 mill a year. There's a few sales Nintendo can squeeze out of 2017 from the 3DS but that's about it. 

But if they continue to support 2 systems "just until Switch takes off", that may actually prevent it from ever taking off. By the time they finally cut 3DS loose, Switch may have missed its chance and become what Wii U was by 2015, a system irrevocably tainted by the image of being a "failed system".

I went over this in your other thread a couple days ago. Most of the currently known Nintendo-published games on 3DS this year are outsourced or ports while most of the Nintendo-published titles on Switch are by internal teams and subsidiaries.

3DS-Yoshi & Poochy (port by Good-Feel), Mario Sports Superstars (Namco & Camelot), Fire Emblem Echoes (Intelligent Systems, a subsidiary), Pikmin 3DS (Arzest?), Ever Oasis (Grezzo), Fire Emblem Warriors (Omega Force & Team Ninja)

Switch-Breath of the Wild (internal studio), 1-2 Switch (internal studio), Mario Kart Deluxe (internal studio), ARMS (internal studio), Splatoon 2 (internal studio), Fire Emblem Warriors (Omega Force & Team Ninja), Xenoblade 2 (Monolith, a subsidiary), Mario Odyssey (internal studio)

Its pretty clear that Nintendo has moved most of its resources to Switch.

I dont think its a wait until Switch takes off scenario, i believe its more like at the current price and size, Switch isnt a suitable substitute for 3DS at the moment and it still has one solid year left anyway. I feel pretty strongly that there will be a $199, 5" screen, portable only Switch model by holiday 2018 and by then 3DS support and sales will have dried up.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

bunchanumbers said:
I predicted 45m lifetime. So it is in line with my predictions. Good for their home console. Bad for their handheld. Hopefully a 3DS successor is announced soon.

Why would anyone even want that?

Even if what you want is cheaper/smaller ... ok, the Tegra X1 can be die shrunk to be made smaller. 

There's no point in making an entirely new platform that starts from zero again ... at least this way you'd be able to play Mario Odyessy, Splatoon 2, Zelda: BotW, Dragon Quest XI, Mario Kart 8, Pokemon Stars, and a myriad of other games right from the get go. 

This is the 3DS successor. It might take a revision for some people to get a smaller version, but I've said it many times I bet once people get used to playing on a bigger 6.2 inch screen, they're not going to want to go back. Same things happens with the 3DS XL/DSi XL, some people at first said that was way too big, well it turns out it outsells the smaller model big time. 

Once people get used to the bigger display, especially when you get to this level of graphics, wanting some rinky dink smaller display isn't going to appeal to a lot of people IMO. Tablet is the form factor people like, even kids. When I have my little cousins over they fight over who gets to the play the iPad first, 3DS and Vita are relegated to the "loser". They like that big screen. 

The pocket is for the smartphone. The other pocket is for the wallet. 3DS/Vita are never going to get into either, going upmarket with a tablet like design I always felt was the only reasonable thing to do.