Let's see how the first year goes to make a call on it.

They must know something that we don't. Because after what has been shown, I'm making predictions of 20-30 lifetime... but I'm just a broke ass college student, what do I know.

If they refuse to cut the price like they did with Wii U, I'd say even the 10-20 million range is within the realm of possibility.

Given all the factors it seems to have against it at the moment, 40 million by 2020 would be a big win in my opinion.

i'm assuming they are getting the general feel from average people. We are only guessing based on reactions from huge gaming websites/youtubers, which is only a small small section of the total pool of consumers. 

I have a really hard time imagining the Switch not reaching at least 40M lifetime. It just doesn't seem likely that so many 3DS owners would turn away from handheld gaming.

An average of 10m per year. Sounds good but Nintendo has to step up their efforts in the coming months.

This would be about 10 million lower than the 3DS in the equivalent amount of time, 3DS had 50.41 shipped by the end of 2014. 

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

If they release a Switch mini, say... Christmas 2018... that is essentially a dedicated handheld and a true replacement for the 3DS, yet still sharing the exact games library.


Easily. It'll happen too. You read it here first.

There will be a Switch mini eventually, but I'll make a prediction and say the regular large screen table style Switch will still remain the no.1 selling model.

People are going to want to the bigger screen especially with the level of visuals the Switch can generate, you don't want to play Zelda: BoTW or Mario Odyessy on a tiny screen. And kids love the tablet form factor so that's not an issue.