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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence Believes Nintendo Switch Can Shift 40 Million Units by 2020

Ljink96 on 20 January 2017
Soundwave said:
Ljink96 said:
They must know something that we don't. Because after what has been shown, I'm making predictions of 20-30 lifetime... but I'm just a broke ass college student, what do I know.

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

3DS was a disaster at $250 before it really picked up after the price cut. If 3DS owners werent' willing to buy a 3DS at $250, they really aren't willing to buy a portable device at $300 if they're going to treat it like a portable device or be seen as people who want a 3DS successor. 

If Nintendo wants to get past my predicted amount they're not going to do it with $80 pro controllers, no Switch Price cut, $90 pieces of plastic with 3 ports, etc. Money talks. If they plan on suckering early Switch adpoters with the pricing, they have to do another ambassador program to compensate as well. Or else people aren't going to be too enthused I'd imagine.



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Soundwave on 20 January 2017
Ljink96 said:
Soundwave said:

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

3DS was a disaster at $250 before it really picked up after the price cut. If 3DS owners werent' willing to buy a 3DS at $250, they really aren't willing to buy a portable device at $300 if they're going to treat it like a portable device or be seen as people who want a 3DS successor. 

If Nintendo wants to get past my predicted amount they're not going to do it with $80 pro controllers, no Switch Price cut, $90 pieces of plastic with 3 ports, etc. Money talks. If they plan on suckering early Switch adpoters with the pricing, they have to do another ambassador program to compensate as well. Or else people aren't going to be too enthused I'd imagine.

They will bring the price down over time, it will be $249.99 possibly by holiday season and then $199.99 eventually. 

They didn't bother with Wii U because they took a big hit on the 3DS to rescue and didn't want to do it again, this time since they only have 1 system, they have no choice but to give it every oppurtunity to succeed. With 3DS and Wii U they could only bail out one and chose the 3DS while letting the Wii U drown to death. 

The ability to play on the TV at home or take it anywhere outside is a decent novelty too, it's no Wiimote or DS touch screen (for their time), but it's much better than the Wii U (sorta portable ... in the same room) and 3DS (3D effect that your eyes get used to after 30 minutes). 



curl-6 on 20 January 2017
Ljink96 said:
Soundwave said:

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

3DS was a disaster at $250 before it really picked up after the price cut. If 3DS owners werent' willing to buy a 3DS at $250, they really aren't willing to buy a portable device at $300 if they're going to treat it like a portable device or be seen as people who want a 3DS successor. 

If Nintendo wants to get past my predicted amount they're not going to do it with $80 pro controllers, no Switch Price cut, $90 pieces of plastic with 3 ports, etc. Money talks. If they plan on suckering early Switch adpoters with the pricing, they have to do another ambassador program to compensate as well. Or else people aren't going to be too enthused I'd imagine.

Yeah, at its current pricing Switch will only sell to hardcore Nintendo fans, the kind who bought a Wii U.

If portable buyers wouldn't buy a 3DS at $250, they're not going to buy a Switch at $300.



Soundwave on 20 January 2017
curl-6 said:
Ljink96 said:

3DS was a disaster at $250 before it really picked up after the price cut. If 3DS owners werent' willing to buy a 3DS at $250, they really aren't willing to buy a portable device at $300 if they're going to treat it like a portable device or be seen as people who want a 3DS successor. 

If Nintendo wants to get past my predicted amount they're not going to do it with $80 pro controllers, no Switch Price cut, $90 pieces of plastic with 3 ports, etc. Money talks. If they plan on suckering early Switch adpoters with the pricing, they have to do another ambassador program to compensate as well. Or else people aren't going to be too enthused I'd imagine.

Yeah, at its current pricing Switch will only sell to hardcore Nintendo fans, the kind who bought a Wii U.

If portable buyers wouldn't buy a 3DS at $250, they're not going to buy a Switch at $300.

It's hard to know if the 3DS would've sold better with better games. Sales probably wouldn't have been red hot, but at $250 they probably would've been OK-ish perhaps with better games. 

Home-to-portable "Switch" ability is a better novelty than a 3D screen too. 

Eventually Nintendo will get the price down to $199.99. 



curl-6 on 20 January 2017
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah, at its current pricing Switch will only sell to hardcore Nintendo fans, the kind who bought a Wii U.

If portable buyers wouldn't buy a 3DS at $250, they're not going to buy a Switch at $300.

It's hard to know if the 3DS would've sold better with better games. Sales probably wouldn't have been red hot, but at $250 they probably would've been decent. 

Home-to-portable "Switch" ability is a better novelty than a 3D screen too. 

Eventually Nintendo will get the price down to $199.99. 

Will they though? They refused to cut the Wii U price even after 4 years on the market.

You say that's cos they were supporting 2 systems, but that's exactly what they're doing now, supporting both Switch and 3DS. If Switch doesn't take off at $300, who is to say they won't just cling to their 3DS safety blanket and ride Switch into the ground?



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Soundwave on 20 January 2017
curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

It's hard to know if the 3DS would've sold better with better games. Sales probably wouldn't have been red hot, but at $250 they probably would've been decent. 

Home-to-portable "Switch" ability is a better novelty than a 3D screen too. 

Eventually Nintendo will get the price down to $199.99. 

Will they though? They refused to cut the Wii U price even after 4 years on the market.

You say that's cos they were supporting 2 systems, but that's exactly what they're doing now, supporting both Switch and 3DS. If Switch doesn't take off at $300, who is to say they won't just cling to their 3DS safety blanket and ride Switch into the ground?

They decided to let the Wii U die because rescuing the 3DS caused them extreme pain (first loss in company history), they weren't willing to do it twice within 2 years. 

Switch will get Nintendo's full focus this gen, it's their "only child" this gen. 

There is no 3DS safety blanket, 3DS is old as balls, by 2018/19 it won't have any future left, and even for all the bruhaha over a "3DS resurgance" it's fairly modest and still selling well under 10 mill a year. There's a few sales Nintendo can squeeze out of 2017 from the 3DS but that's about it. 3DS can't carry them any where. 



Nautilus on 20 January 2017

40 millions is actually kinda low.I expect more by 2020.But we will see.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

curl-6 on 20 January 2017
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Will they though? They refused to cut the Wii U price even after 4 years on the market.

You say that's cos they were supporting 2 systems, but that's exactly what they're doing now, supporting both Switch and 3DS. If Switch doesn't take off at $300, who is to say they won't just cling to their 3DS safety blanket and ride Switch into the ground?

They decided to let the Wii U die because rescuing the 3DS caused them extreme pain (first loss in company history), they weren't willing to do it twice within 2 years. 

Switch will get Nintendo's full focus this gen, it's their "only child" this gen. 

There is no 3DS safety blanket, 3DS is old as balls, by 2018/19 it won't have any future left, and even for all the bruhaha over a "3DS resurgance" it's fairly modest and still selling well under 10 mill a year. There's a few sales Nintendo can squeeze out of 2017 from the 3DS but that's about it. 

But if they continue to support 2 systems "just until Switch takes off", that may actually prevent it from ever taking off. By the time they finally cut 3DS loose, Switch may have missed its chance and become what Wii U was by 2015, a system irrevocably tainted by the image of being a "failed system".



celador on 20 January 2017

seems possible, with Japan doing lots of the heavy lifting



Frogger on 20 January 2017
curl-6 said:
Ljink96 said:
They must know something that we don't. Because after what has been shown, I'm making predictions of 20-30 lifetime... but I'm just a broke ass college student, what do I know.

If they refuse to cut the price like they did with Wii U, I'd say even the 10-20 million range is within the realm of possibility.

Given all the factors it seems to have against it at the moment, 40 million by 2020 would be a big win in my opinion.

I don't think there's a chance in hell this thing sells like the Wii U, given what we know now, even without price drops. Switch has a much better line up of exclusives from launch until Holiday than any console in recent memory had in their first year. It's branding is clear, it has a steady cadence of big first party releases, and people actually like the hardware. There is a positive buzz around the Switch, even after that terrible conference, that didn't exist with the Wii U. Ev

I think it'll do 50m at the absolute worst. As in no Pokémon and no price drop. No third party support and crappy online features. And I'd consider that an abject failure on Nintendo's part, but it will be no Wii U failure. At it's absolute worse, it's still a desirable piece of tech that people who have no business being attracted to Nintendo stuff are being attracted to.

Now obviously it will get a Pokémon and it will get price drops. The Wii U didn't get a price drop because it was sold at a loss and was still selling poorly. There was no business benefit to selling at a worse loss. Switch is likely the opposite - being sold at a healthy profit and selling respectably. They'll have room to cut the price where the Wii U did not.