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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence Believes Nintendo Switch Can Shift 40 Million Units by 2020

Cobretti2 on 21 January 2017
Soundwave said:
Ljink96 said:
They must know something that we don't. Because after what has been shown, I'm making predictions of 20-30 lifetime... but I'm just a broke ass college student, what do I know.

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

i agree you are on the money with the assessement because sre as hell waht we saw wasn't a home console.

Do you think they will be doing a home console as well? perhaps same tie as PS5 and tr to reset their mistakes at that point and go toe to toe (or close too).



 

 

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Soundwave on 21 January 2017
Cobretti2 said:
Soundwave said:

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

i agree you are on the money with the assessement because sre as hell waht we saw wasn't a home console.

Do you think they will be doing a home console as well? perhaps same tie as PS5 and tr to reset their mistakes at that point and go toe to toe (or close too).

No I don't think so, but that's just my opinion. 

If Switch is successful, then Nintendo will release a Switch 2 basically, which will be around a PS4 in power. 

If Switch is not successful, then they will go third party or choose to partner with one of MS or Sony (or maybe in an off chance Apple or Google) and support that console, while making a low budget portable-only machine on the side that they manufacture. 

I think that's basically it. Segregating Nintendo hardware is never going to really happen again I don't think. It's just too difficult to support two platforms at once given how much resources modern games demand. Wii U/3DS was the last era of that. 



bunchanumbers on 21 January 2017
Soundwave said:
bunchanumbers said:
I predicted 45m lifetime. So it is in line with my predictions. Good for their home console. Bad for their handheld. Hopefully a 3DS successor is announced soon.

Why would anyone even want that?

Even if what you want is cheaper/smaller ... ok, the Tegra X1 can be die shrunk to be made smaller. 

There's no point in making an entirely new platform that starts from zero again ... at least this way you'd be able to play Mario Odyessy, Splatoon 2, Zelda: BotW, Dragon Quest XI, Mario Kart 8, Pokemon Stars, and a myriad of other games right from the get go. 

This is the 3DS successor. It might take a revision for some people to get a smaller version, but I've said it many times I bet once people get used to playing on a bigger 6.2 inch screen, they're not going to want to go back. Same things happens with the 3DS XL/DSi XL, some people at first said that was way too big, well it turns out it outsells the smaller model big time. 

Once people get used to the bigger display, especially when you get to this level of graphics, wanting some rinky dink smaller display isn't going to appeal to a lot of people IMO. Tablet is the form factor people like, even kids. When I have my little cousins over they fight over who gets to the play the iPad first, 3DS and Vita are relegated to the "loser". They like that big screen. 

The pocket is for the smartphone. The other pocket is for the wallet. 3DS/Vita are never going to get into either, going upmarket with a tablet like design I always felt was the only reasonable thing to do. 

Nintendo themselves said that this is a home console. If they shrink down Switch they will need to make it work with existing Switch peripherals including smaller joycons. It would be awkward or they will have to take away joycons altogether and fuse the controls to the tablet itself.

Too much hassle. Nintendo will probably make a new 3DS successor that can play Switch games on a smaller screen.



loy310 on 21 January 2017

With no software? If it was that simple the PS4 and XB1 would have sold trillions in the same amount of time.



Zones on 21 January 2017
curl-6 said:
Hynad said:

Yes, but it's not as bad as you make it seem. 

Everything is negative and blown out of proportion bad with you. Isn't it tiring over time?

Extremely. And I'm sorry, I do try not to do this, I should probably just stay away from VGChartz these days so as not to be a drag, but as I'm bored, on holidays, and have nothing better to do, I keep drifting back, and the negativity of my offline life spills into my online life. Again, I apologise.

Wait why exactly are you apologising excessively over making a lot of sense here regarding this topic?



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Kai_Mao on 21 January 2017
loy310 said:
With no software? If it was that simple the PS4 and XB1 would have sold trillions in the same amount of time.

Nice joke? I mean, they haven't showed everything and there's E3 around the corner. The Fire Emblem direct does picture that Nintendo and their internal partners aren't done making announcements and are still having games under development. The no software thing is a bit overblown I think. Yea the launch lineup isn't the greatest ever, but most aren't. The launch year, at least in first party? It's pretty darn solid with Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey, Zelda BotW, Arms, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Xenoblade 2, FE Warriors, etc. with more, hopefully, announced later in the year.



bonzobanana on 21 January 2017

I can't see Switch doing close to 40 million. I think it will struggle to sell 15 million. Most of the games shown perform below 360/ps3 standards and could have been achieved on the earlier generation and it makes neither a good portable or home console. Most genres of games aren't properly catered for and pricing is excessive for everything. I think for those who buy early a large number of those people once they have played through Zelda will sell their consoles and not even wait for Mario Odyssey. As the hype reduces and your left just looking at the product for what it is you realise just how terrible it is.

Another game I've just seen that is going to be available for Switch is Rayman Legends. A game given away on xbox live games for gold and will have zero interest by 99.9%of the gaming population who have either played it already or weren't interested in the first place. It won't surprise me if android and ios games that cost pence start turning up as £60 Switch cartridges. The Switch is pretty much a dead man walking.

Most of its games are re-releases which will likely perform at a low technical level compared to the best versions elsewhere.



Soundwave on 21 January 2017
bunchanumbers said:
Soundwave said:

Why would anyone even want that?

Even if what you want is cheaper/smaller ... ok, the Tegra X1 can be die shrunk to be made smaller. 

There's no point in making an entirely new platform that starts from zero again ... at least this way you'd be able to play Mario Odyessy, Splatoon 2, Zelda: BotW, Dragon Quest XI, Mario Kart 8, Pokemon Stars, and a myriad of other games right from the get go. 

This is the 3DS successor. It might take a revision for some people to get a smaller version, but I've said it many times I bet once people get used to playing on a bigger 6.2 inch screen, they're not going to want to go back. Same things happens with the 3DS XL/DSi XL, some people at first said that was way too big, well it turns out it outsells the smaller model big time. 

Once people get used to the bigger display, especially when you get to this level of graphics, wanting some rinky dink smaller display isn't going to appeal to a lot of people IMO. Tablet is the form factor people like, even kids. When I have my little cousins over they fight over who gets to the play the iPad first, 3DS and Vita are relegated to the "loser". They like that big screen. 

The pocket is for the smartphone. The other pocket is for the wallet. 3DS/Vita are never going to get into either, going upmarket with a tablet like design I always felt was the only reasonable thing to do. 

Nintendo themselves said that this is a home console. If they shrink down Switch they will need to make it work with existing Switch peripherals including smaller joycons. It would be awkward or they will have to take away joycons altogether and fuse the controls to the tablet itself.

Too much hassle. Nintendo will probably make a new 3DS successor that can play Switch games on a smaller screen.

There are multiple ways to do this. You could even just take their Joycon grip design, flatten the joysticks (like the 3DS has) and make that the "bottom half" of a clamshell portable. You could make the middle portion a bit wider if you want. 

 

Slide in/out the Joycons just like you would for a normal Joycon grip. There you go, now you have a clamshell portable that can accomodate all Joycons. 

Once you can die shrink that Tegra X1 to 10nm or even 7nm ... you can fit it into basically anything. 

Making an entirely "new" 3DS system with its own architecture that has to start from a library of 0 and splits up their development teams is far more hassle. 



Podings on 21 January 2017

It'd be rather unlucky if they couldn't.



DélioPT on 21 January 2017

I think this is a good number, specially when you see XB1 selling 26M for the same time period.

Reggie already said they have their own line-up set until early 2019, i think. So, it won't lose momentum this time.
If Nintendo can do this and bring great system selling games, i think 3rd parties will try to follow them somehow.
Then, i can see the console reaching that number in 3 years.

Also, i believe that price will come down Holiday next year for the next Smash or MK9 and another Pokémon.