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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence Believes Nintendo Switch Can Shift 40 Million Units by 2020

Slarvax on 21 January 2017
Kai_Mao said:
loy310 said:
With no software? If it was that simple the PS4 and XB1 would have sold trillions in the same amount of time.

Nice joke? I mean, they haven't showed everything and there's E3 around the corner. The Fire Emblem direct does picture that Nintendo and their internal partners aren't done making announcements and are still having games under development. The no software thing is a bit overblown I think. Yea the launch lineup isn't the greatest ever, but most aren't. The launch year, at least in first party? It's pretty darn solid with Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey, Zelda BotW, Arms, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Xenoblade 2, FE Warriors, etc. with more, hopefully, announced later in the year.

What? Are you telling me that with over 10 months for the rest of the year they can announce more games? You must be going insane!



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

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zorg1000 on 21 January 2017
Hynad said:
curl-6 said:

They were able to do so because Wii games were 6th gen in complexity and DS games 4th/5th gen. Not so easy now that one platform is PS3/360 tier and the other 6th gen tier.

It's one gen behind like the Wii was. I don't see how this is any different. 

That's not what he was getting at.

Wii was an SD console & DS games were mostly simple 2D games.

Wii U is an HD console & 3DS games had more complex 3D worlds.

Development resources had to increase alot from DS/Wii to 3DS/Wii U.

If Nintendo were to continue having seperate hardware, we would be looking at a Vita level handheld and a XBO level console making it even harder for them to support two platforms, instead they have decided to create a single platform that is pretty much right in the middle.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Conina on 21 January 2017
Soundwave said:
bunchanumbers said:

Nintendo themselves said that this is a home console. If they shrink down Switch they will need to make it work with existing Switch peripherals including smaller joycons. It would be awkward or they will have to take away joycons altogether and fuse the controls to the tablet itself.

Too much hassle. Nintendo will probably make a new 3DS successor that can play Switch games on a smaller screen.

There are multiple ways to do this. You could even just take their Joycon grip design, flatten the joysticks (like the 3DS has) and make that the "bottom half" of a clamshell portable. You could make the middle portion a bit wider if you want. 

 

Slide in/out the Joycons just like you would for a normal Joycon grip. There you go, now you have a clamshell portable that can accomodate all Joycons. 

Once you can die shrink that Tegra X1 to 10nm or even 7nm ... you can fit it into basically anything. 

Making an entirely "new" 3DS system with its own architecture that has to start from a library of 0 and splits up their development teams is far more hassle. 

They could do that, but I would prefer if they just ditch the option of detachable joycons for the handheld version... perhaps even ditch the rumble feature for the handheld version to save some money and space. Very few Switch games will have mandatory motion controls (even ARMS can be played with sticks and buttons).

So instead of the main device with a big battery and 2 controllers with their own small batteries and rumble tech, they could add the controls to the main device with ONE battery with a capacity as high as possible. Also smaller bezels around the display:

 

 



LurkerJ on 21 January 2017
Soundwave said:
Ljink96 said:
They must know something that we don't. Because after what has been shown, I'm making predictions of 20-30 lifetime... but I'm just a broke ass college student, what do I know.

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

 

Soundwave said:
There will be a Switch mini eventually, but I'll make a prediction and say the regular large screen table style Switch will still remain the no.1 selling model.

People are going to want to the bigger screen especially with the level of visuals the Switch can generate, you don't want to play Zelda: BoTW or Mario Odyessy on a tiny screen. And kids love the tablet form factor so that's not an issue.

A+.

3DS owners are Nintenodo's primary audience. 



bonzobanana on 21 January 2017
LurkerJ said:
Soundwave said:

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

 

Soundwave said:
There will be a Switch mini eventually, but I'll make a prediction and say the regular large screen table style Switch will still remain the no.1 selling model.

People are going to want to the bigger screen especially with the level of visuals the Switch can generate, you don't want to play Zelda: BoTW or Mario Odyessy on a tiny screen. And kids love the tablet form factor so that's not an issue.

A+.

3DS owners are Nintenodo's primary audience. 

I honestly can't see the Switch filling the shoes of 3DS, the whole format, pricing and content is wrong.  Could it be a competitive product with tablets and mobiles in general again I don't think so. I don't know what level of apps support the Switch will have but I feel much functionality people expect won't be provided including email, internet browsing, taking photos, youtube, mp3, video, streaming services etc in addition to games. Will Switch games be competitive with android and ios games I don't think so. 

People may even be expecting to get Nintendo games on android and Ios now what with Mario run etc.

I'm not saying the Switch can't be successful but I certainly can't see it succeeding with the current sku and pricing. That is a total lemon. Nintendo just don't make any effort to be competitive nowadays and the Switch takes it even further into a niche.   



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LurkerJ on 21 January 2017
bonzobanana said:
LurkerJ said:

 

A+.

3DS owners are Nintenodo's primary audience. 

I honestly can't see the Switch filling the shoes of 3DS, the whole format, pricing and content is wrong.  Could it be a competitive product with tablets and mobiles in general again I don't think so. I don't know what level of apps support the Switch will have but I feel much functionality people expect won't be provided including email, internet browsing, taking photos, youtube, mp3, video, streaming services etc in addition to games. Will Switch games be competitive with android and ios games I don't think so. 

People may even be expecting to get Nintendo games on android and Ios now what with Mario run etc.

I'm not saying the Switch can't be successful but I certainly can't see it succeeding with the current sku and pricing. That is a total lemon. Nintendo just don't make any effort to be competitive nowadays and the Switch takes it even further into a niche.   

I don't disagree with the price being too high, it may end up hindering the Switch. Unlike the online paywall, the price barrier can be resolved though.

Soundwave is suggesting the same, he is implying Nintendo will cut the price of the Switch in 2018, and possibly introduce a Switch Mini to make that happen, which is something I've been arguing will happen as well.



Proxy-Pie on 21 January 2017

I think so too. I'm pretty sure the Switch's first year wouldn't be its best performing one by far, so I expect a slow start, but going forward I think Nintendo can get some pretty good sales if they keep a consistent game release schedule.

Some people might mention the fact that this'd be less than WiiU+3DS total sales, but considering the Switch is being sold at a profit from the get-go, I fully expect much higher profits (which is what companies really care about, at the end of the day.)



StarOcean on 21 January 2017

I can see it if the price can drop $50 by years end



zorg1000 on 21 January 2017
MohammadBadir said:
I think so too. I'm pretty sure the Switch's first year wouldn't be its best performing one by far, so I expect a slow start, but going forward I think Nintendo can get some pretty good sales if they keep a consistent game release schedule.

Some people might mention the fact that this'd be less than WiiU+3DS total sales, but considering the Switch is being sold at a profit from the get-go, I fully expect much higher profits (which is what companies really care about, at the end of the day.)

1st party software sales will likely benefit as well with a consolidated ecosystem even if hardware sales are down.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

haxxiy on 21 January 2017

DFC also predicted the Xbox One to reach 100 million by 2020.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-02-11-ps4-xbox-one-will-both-reach-100m-units-dfc