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I think this is a good number, specially when you see XB1 selling 26M for the same time period.

Reggie already said they have their own line-up set until early 2019, i think. So, it won't lose momentum this time.
If Nintendo can do this and bring great system selling games, i think 3rd parties will try to follow them somehow.
Then, i can see the console reaching that number in 3 years.

Also, i believe that price will come down Holiday next year for the next Smash or MK9 and another Pokémon.