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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - DFC Intelligence Believes Nintendo Switch Can Shift 40 Million Units by 2020

spemanig said:
curl-6 said:

If they refuse to cut the price like they did with Wii U, I'd say even the 10-20 million range is within the realm of possibility.

Given all the factors it seems to have against it at the moment, 40 million by 2020 would be a big win in my opinion.

I don't think there's a chance in hell this thing sells like the Wii U, given what we know now, even without price drops. Switch has a much better line up of exclusives from launch until Holiday than any console in recent memory had in their first year. It's branding is clear, it has a steady cadence of big first party releases, and people actually like the hardware. 

Does it though? It doesn't seem to have any major new games between Zelda at launch and Splatoon 2 mid-year.



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Possible if they cut all supply of the 3ds and drop it to $200 by 2018 :^)



Who are these ppl and have their predictions ever been true?



curl-6 said:
spemanig said:

I don't think there's a chance in hell this thing sells like the Wii U, given what we know now, even without price drops. Switch has a much better line up of exclusives from launch until Holiday than any console in recent memory had in their first year. It's branding is clear, it has a steady cadence of big first party releases, and people actually like the hardware. 

Does it though? It doesn't seem to have any major new games between Zelda at launch and Splatoon 2 mid-year.

It has Arms and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.



spemanig said:
curl-6 said:

Does it though? It doesn't seem to have any major new games between Zelda at launch and Splatoon 2 mid-year.

It has Arms and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

It wouldn't call either of those "major new games", but I guess we'll see soon enough if the market regards them as such.



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Bandorr said:
I can see that possible. Then again I expect a price discount, and 1-2 to start seeing heavy bundling by the end of the year.

Bundles yes, discounts?



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

I can see that by then.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

curl-6 said:
spemanig said:

It has Arms and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

It wouldn't call either of those "major new games", but I guess we'll see soon enough if the market regards them as such.

I mean, even if you don't count Arms, which is obviously understandable given how little we know about it, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is a huge game for the Switch. It being a port doesn't take away from that. Look at The Last of US Remastered as an example. Mario Kart is way bigger than TLoU, and had its sales bottlenecked far more than the PS3 version TLoU did.

As for Arms, that's mostly (educated) speculation. I just think there's way more to that game than what it seemed like at the press conference, and Nintendo is going to push it way harder than people think they will. The director for this game is the director of Mario Kart 8. Looking at the art direction and soundtrack, it seems like this is being done by the Mario Kart team as a whole. The arenas seem to have a lot of detail and are designed with a similar attention and interactivity as Mario Kart tracks are.

One arena had trampolines at the perimeters. Another had destructable pillars. Another had a destructable center that turned into a giant trampoline in the center. The characters are extremely well designed and destinct from one another. I just can't imagine this not being the Mario Kart team's "Splatoon" analog. I think the reason it's being slept on is because Nintendo made the stupid decision to introduce it alongside motion controls, only confirming that it can be used with a traditional controller later in a really understated way.

I don't believe we've seen even half the roster yet, I don't think we've seen all of the stages, and I don't think we've even seen all of the modes yet. There's an ominous arena that seems to imply that that the fighters in Arms are factory created to fight, which means this game has lore, which means there's probably a single player story mode. If my speculation that the entire Mario Kart team is working on this, and again everything about this game has their fingerprints on it, then this will probably be a very content-packed game.

The reception from people who have played it has been universally positive, with most saying that it's way deeper than they thought it was from the reveal. So all this leads me to believe that we are going to get a lot more information on this game leading up to itsn release, and that it is going to be a much bigger deal than people are thinking. It wasn't the first "game with depth" they showed for no reason. This is this year's Splatoon for them, and they're going to push it hard. I think.



Hhhmmm...I could see it, but I think it's far from certain what the Switch will sell.

Actually...that's faster than the Xbox One. I'm not so sure the Switch will be able to pull that off.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

They decided to let the Wii U die because rescuing the 3DS caused them extreme pain (first loss in company history), they weren't willing to do it twice within 2 years. 

Switch will get Nintendo's full focus this gen, it's their "only child" this gen. 

There is no 3DS safety blanket, 3DS is old as balls, by 2018/19 it won't have any future left, and even for all the bruhaha over a "3DS resurgance" it's fairly modest and still selling well under 10 mill a year. There's a few sales Nintendo can squeeze out of 2017 from the 3DS but that's about it. 

But if they continue to support 2 systems "just until Switch takes off", that may actually prevent it from ever taking off. By the time they finally cut 3DS loose, Switch may have missed its chance and become what Wii U was by 2015, a system irrevocably tainted by the image of being a "failed system".

They supported the DS and the Wii at the same time and both were outstanding successes.