DFC Intelligence Believes Nintendo Switch Can Shift 40 Million Units by 2020

[zorg1000]

Ljink96 said:

Soundwave said:

3DS successor is not selling 20-30 million life time unless there's a disaster, don't believe Nintendo's PR line, as 2018 goes on they will position it more as the 3DS replacement. They want to sell 3DS for another year and buy some time to get the price down on the Switch while gouging early adopters. 

Lets not be naive as to what's going on here. 

3DS was a disaster at $250 before it really picked up after the price cut. If 3DS owners werent' willing to buy a 3DS at $250, they really aren't willing to buy a portable device at $300 if they're going to treat it like a portable device or be seen as people who want a 3DS successor. 

If Nintendo wants to get past my predicted amount they're not going to do it with $80 pro controllers, no Switch Price cut, $90 pieces of plastic with 3 ports, etc. Money talks. If they plan on suckering early Switch adpoters with the pricing, they have to do another ambassador program to compensate as well. Or else people aren't going to be too enthused I'd imagine.

Comparing it directly to 3DS price for price doesnt make much sense for multiple reasons.

1. This is the biggest reason, 1st party support. 3DS had Nintendogs, Pilotwings & Steel Diver day 1. Only 1 other 1st party game released between the March launch and the August price cut, Ocarina of Time 3D in June. On the other hand Switch launches with Zelda and is expected to have Mario Kart, Arms & Splatoon in the following 4-5 months.

2. Switch is pretty powerful for a handheld gaming device in 2017 while 3DS was pretty weak even by 2011 standards.

3. The concept of being able to play on the go or on the TV is far more compelling than glasses free 3D.

3DS doing poorly at $250 does not mean Switch will sell poorly at $300.