If this prediction were true: 40 million would put the Switch pretty close to Nintendo 64-like sales performance. What I can read from that would be that the Switch would have some pretty amazing games that would make it a serious hit in at least one of the regions but that the hardware features are going to be kind of hit and miss and will probably hold the console back from serious success.
That was more or less the fate of the N64: it had amazing first and second party games that really defined the generation but it was also a console that made some serious mistakes with hardware (cartridges, difficult to design games for) and this held it back with 3rd parties and ultimately gave Sony the victory crown.
On the positive side, 40 million would be enough to keep Nintendo in the hardware business and I think that they could make some significant money at this install base (they can easily get a few 10 million+ sellers at a 40 million install base). Pokemon, Zelda and Mario can be major money makers on this console.
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