well, more than any new super mario bros game.
id bet 30 million.

For that figure to be true that would be a 75% attach rate of the game... not only this, but it would mean that people who owned multiple apple devices would download the title on multiple devices. Factoring in multi devices owned by a single person you are suggesting an actual attach rate of over 100% of the user base of people downloading the game.

Well I'm talking about Android downloads as well once that becomes available on that.

Oh right, I am just going by the Apple devices and numbers since those are really the only solid numbers around right now I think.

But keep in mind in all of this that Pokemon Go, the Giant which it was during the first week managed to get 40million downloads on Android/IOS and of that just 7million of them were on Apples platform, that is a free game which was a Global Phenomenon in terms of being on the news, tv and pretty much every social media outlet, managed 7million downloads in July of this year in the first week. Unless a massive % of the 1billion apple device owners have handed their device into the hands of someone who is A. A gamer and B. Willing to buy a $10 app between then and now, then this app is never going to breach 10m paid downloads on IOS and unless buying it becomes law across the globe it is certainly not going to reach the 300m paid downloads that the OP suggests.

Eugh... Gen 2 of Pokemon are in game now it seems... in Eggs, wtf Niantic just can't do anything right.

Know this is off topic, just found it while looking for Pokemon Go numbers for comparison to this.

http://www.polygon.com/2016/12/12/13922746/pokemon-go-gen-two-pokemon

Better get buying some incubators to see new Mon.

I know, I believe it can be a stretch but I'm relying on the Mario power and word of mouth for this one as well. I don't know quite how big it can possibly be so I'll go a bit bold :)

Name a single f2p game with a paying customer rate that's even close to 10%. Your prediction has zero basis in reality.

How you think it will be even more popular than Pokemon Go is beyond me. That only shows that you have absolutely no idea why Pokemon Go was so popular in the first place.

You forget that at one point earlier this year, Pokemon Go made up more than half of all in-app transactions. https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/29/pokemon-gos-paying-user-base-has-reached-a-plateau/

Of course, that kind of strength doesn't last with any title forever - but it lends itself well to the idea that Nintendo can achieve greater paying attach rates with their top-tier IP for at least a short duration of time.

Keep in mind this is a free app currently with only one major in-app purchase, and that it's pretty meaningful one in comparison to what you normally get with many other f2p games.

This is also lifetime numbers I'm predicting here... So I'm not saying it hits 300 million paid downloads it's first year, but over several years on the app store it will.

I agree, 10% or less paying customers of the total downloaders would also be my guess. Let's have a look at the similar mobile Rayman games.

• Rayman Fiesta Run for $3 (sometimes reduced to $2 or $1): 0.1m - 0.5m downloads, 32k user ratings
• Rayman Jungle Run for $3 (was reduced to $0.10 one time): 1m - 5m downloads, 64k user ratings
• Rayman Adventures for $0 (free2play): 10m - 50m downloads, 338k user ratings

• https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ubisoft.rayman.fiestarun
• https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.pastagames.ro1mobile
• https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ubisoft.raymanadventures

The rating average on Google Play of these 3 games shows similar satisfaction of the users: quite good 4.3 - 4.5 stars out of 5. MetaScore shows much lower ratings for Rayman Adventures, but that can be explained by pissed reviewers punishing the in-app-purchase model.

Much more people downloaded and rated Rayman Adventures... why not try it when it is free? Only a fraction of these will have invested money into the game, even if they liked the part they played.

Of course Super Mario Run will have much higher downloads and sales than Rayman... because it is Nintendo and Mario and all the hype and the PR (Apple keynote, preorder spotlight for weeks in the AppStore, Jimmy Fallon, TV-Spots...).

But I doubt that more than 10% of the people who try it will also buy it, especially for $10. My guess would be 300m downloads, 20m - 30m sales.

I personally really like all the Rayman games above and will probably also buy SMR (since I have no problem with paying for premium apps), but perhaps I wait for the first 50%-sale.

That's still not how math works. Look at LTD numbers of any game and compare it with first year sales. You will find they're very similar. By a simlar rate SMR would have to sell at least 200m copies in its first year. This game does not exist in a bubble. It has to compete against every other game on the store and a lot of them are free or have a way smaller entry fee.

The game cannot simply succeed because of brand alone. Pokemon couldn't do it either. Pokemon was heavily supported by the social aspect which brought players in who would've otherwise have not given a single shit about a pokemon game.

And now you come along saying that a game with higher entry fee, no social draw and no longevity whatsoever will easily beat a once in a lifetime blockbuster? Be realistic here.