Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[fleischr]

vivster said:

fleischr said:

I made a clear distinction on lifetime numbers.

Lifetime: 1 billion + total downloads, 300 million of which will be paid. The rest all free.

I think the attach rate of paid downloads at launch will be higher - maybe in the realm of 50-60% starting out.

If it doesn't pass 300m free downloads lifetime, I may eat my hat. 

Name a single f2p game with a paying customer rate that's even close to 10%. Your prediction has zero basis in reality 

You forget that at one point earlier this year, Pokemon Go made up more than half of all in-app transactions. https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/29/pokemon-gos-paying-user-base-has-reached-a-plateau/

Of course, that kind of strength doesn't last with any title forever - but it lends itself well to the idea that Nintendo can achieve greater paying attach rates with their top-tier IP for at least a short duration of time.

Keep in mind this is a free app currently with only one major in-app purchase, and that it's pretty meaningful one in comparison to what you normally get with many other f2p games.

This is also lifetime numbers I'm predicting here... So I'm not saying it hits 300 million paid downloads it's first year, but over several years on the app store it will.