I think 10M is a good number, hopefully it does better, but I am a bit skeptical

It kind of is in it's own bubble though. It absolutely competes on 'unfair' terms with everything else out there.

Not only does have the longest pre-release marketing of any App Store game - there's a good chance it'll be promoted in the long haul. Why? Because it easily brings in more revenue/profit per sale than anything else Apple (or Google) has to promote.

To them it's not just a single release - but a chance to reverse the race to the bottom mobile sales model that's had app store revenues stagnate in real terms.

I think there's a much bigger social hook to this than you might realize. It's not the same as Pokemon Go - but titles like Temple Run or Angry Birds never needed a 'social' hook to get several million downloads, did they?

Wow. Just wow. I just cannot comprehend how anyone can think this way and actually try to conivince others that these ideas aren't totally ludicrious.

There is absolutely no reason to think that this game will have more than 50 million paid downloads even in the most optimistic of scenarios that are actually grounded in reality. You're actually arguing for 6 times higher than that.

For example: The Angry Birds SERIES has over 2 billion downloads, but it has been 100% free on Android since the beginning and has regularly been given away for free on iOS (I think I have every angry birds game, and I never paid a dime for any of them). So that means you have many people that could be representing 8 downloads for Angry Birds that would only represent 1 for Mario Run, and again, most of those 2 billion downloads are by users that never paid a dime for anything.

Furthermore, you're vastly overestimating the potential userbase. Between my wife and I, we have owned 9 different iOS devices between us over the years. They all used my account. It's a gross overestimation to assume that 1 billion iOS devices in the wild represents 1 billion iOS users. 

This is just two very obvious examples that makes your very flimsy house of cards come toppling down.

1M?

10 bucks is way too much for a mobile game

This.

13 billion downloads, which will generate 90 trillion dollars to Nintendo.

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Well Done, that is the worst prediction on this forum since that guy predicted the 3DS will sell 500 Million guaranteed

LOL

At least there is potentially 500million buyers for the 3ds in the world though even if that would mean 1 in every 4 households in the world having one (given a 4 person per household scenario)

For the 300m sales of Super Mario Run to work out, given 1 billion devices with somewhere between 2 to 9 Apple devices (for a person who has never bought a single thing from them like myself, to 9 Apple devices all using 1 account as per Potato_Hamster's situation) per unique user this 300m sales would need to rival the sales predictions of the Atari 2600 version of E.T. where there was more copies of the game produced than sales of Atari 2600 Hardware, it is a higher prediction of software than hardware (with unique accounts) that can run it.