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potato_hamster on 12 December 2016
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fleischr said:
vivster said:

That's still not how math works. Look at LTD numbers of any game and compare it with first year sales. You will find they're very similar. By a simlar rate SMR would have to sell at least 200m copies in its first year. This game does not exist in a bubble. It has to compete against every other game on the store and a lot of them are free or have a way smaller entry fee.

The game cannot simply succeed because of brand alone. Pokemon couldn't do it either. Pokemon was heavily supported by the social aspect which brought players in who would've otherwise have not given a single shit about a pokemon game.

And now you come along saying that a game with higher entry fee, no social draw and no longevity whatsoever will easily beat a once in a lifetime blockbuster? Be realistic here.

It kind of is in it's own bubble though. It absolutely competes on 'unfair' terms with everything else out there.

Not only does have the longest pre-release marketing of any App Store game - there's a good chance it'll be promoted in the long haul. Why? Because it easily brings in more revenue/profit per sale than anything else Apple (or Google) has to promote.

To them it's not just a single release - but a chance to reverse the race to the bottom mobile sales model that's had app store revenues stagnate in real terms.

I think there's a much bigger social hook to this than you might realize. It's not the same as Pokemon Go - but titles like Temple Run or Angry Birds never needed a 'social' hook to get several million downloads, did they?

Wow. Just wow. I just cannot comprehend how anyone can think this way and actually try to conivince others that these ideas aren't totally ludicrious.

There is absolutely no reason to think that this game will have more than 50 million paid downloads even in the most optimistic of scenarios that are actually grounded in reality. You're actually arguing for 6 times higher than that.

For example: The Angry Birds SERIES has over 2 billion downloads, but it has been 100% free on Android since the beginning and has regularly been given away for free on iOS (I think I have every angry birds game, and I never paid a dime for any of them). So that means you have many people that could be representing 8 downloads for Angry Birds that would only represent 1 for Mario Run, and again, most of those 2 billion downloads are by users that never paid a dime for anything.

Furthermore, you're vastly overestimating the potential userbase. Between my wife and I, we have owned 9 different iOS devices between us over the years. They all used my account. It's a gross overestimation to assume that 1 billion iOS devices in the wild represents 1 billion iOS users. 

This is just two very obvious examples that makes your very flimsy house of cards come toppling down.