By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

pray4mojo on 12 December 2016

I really don't care about downloads when it's free. How many $10.00 purchases it gets is far more interesting.



Around the Network
Bman54 on 12 December 2016
fleischr said:
Bman54 said:

That's not what you're arguing. You're using those as an example because you thought people paid full price for the games on top of buying the console. Well that's not the case, because they came free with the console, so it's not applicable to your attach rate argument because their numbers are hevaily skewed for good reason.

In that case, they actually paid $200-$300 to play a Mario game instead of $60 then.

And now you're assuming every single person bought an NES or SNES solely for Mario and nothing else.



fleischr on 12 December 2016
Bman54 said:
fleischr said:

In that case, they actually paid $200-$300 to play a Mario game instead of $60 then.

And now you're assuming every single person bought an NES or SNES solely for Mario and nothing else.

No - But I do believe Mario games are the biggest factor of the a Nintendo console's appeal. And you?



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Barkley on 12 December 2016
fleischr said:

Angry birds only at 12 million paid downloads was in 2010 - with 42 million free downloads. A lot has changed since then.

That game has since cleared 2 billion downloads of all kinds

https://www.vg247.com/2014/01/22/angry-birds-downloaded-2-billion-times-has-as-many-maus-as-twitter/

Even if paid download attach rate dipped to 10% over those other 2 billion ish downloads - it still would have cleared 200 million paid downloads in it's lifetime.

For a successful mobile game to cross over into several hundred million paid downloads isn't out of the question.

I'd argue that Minecraft is a significantly more complex game for casuals to really get into - hence only the 30 million downloads.

No it hasn't, "By January 2014 the game had reached 2 billion downloads, including Angry Birds, Angry Birds Seasons, Angry Birds Rio, Angry Birds Space, Angry Birds Star Wars I & II and Angry Birds Go!"

The Angry Birds SERIES has had 2 billion downloads, Angry Birds was actually never a paid game on android, it's always been free to play.

Minecraft is the 2nd best selling mobile game of all time, that's the hard data we have.



fleischr on 12 December 2016
pray4mojo said:
I really don't care about downloads when it's free. How many $10.00 purchases it gets is far more interesting.

That's the tree I'm barking up here.

I'm predicting it'll have a higher attach ratio than many cheaper games.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Around the Network
Barkley on 12 December 2016
pray4mojo said:
I really don't care about downloads when it's free. How many $10.00 purchases it gets is far more interesting.

That's what the threads about, he's actually predicting a $10 game will sell 300 million copies on mobile.



Ganoncrotch on 12 December 2016
fleischr said:
Ganoncrotch said:
The OP's prediction has to be based on the 1billion ios devices PR announcement a while ago, but even at that joke figure, Given that I have 2 of those devices and I would not invest money in itunes ever then you have to factor in that a lot of the 1billion devices are either cases where many devices are owned by a single person and have 1 account on them (even 2 devices per person would half the number to 500m potential sales with 100% of owners buying it) and then you have to factor in of the 500m potential users of iDevices how many of those actually ever use their phone for anything other than just being a phone, let alone how many would ever consider spending money or time on a game, you are looking at maybe 1 in 10 so cuts down the potential buyers of the game to close to 50m at best, given Mario's attach rates on consoles are pretty high I would wager this will life time sell around 5-7m copies of the $10 version based on around 10% of the gamers on ios

This is just based on the ios version of the game and not taking Android into account, it is far harder to nail down numbers for android devices which are actively in use.

Regardless of anything though, to think you're going to get 300m sales on 1billion devices is insane.

Sales only in the NSMBU league?

So a cheaper mario game on a significantly larger user base only sells as good as a more expensive one a dramatically smaller user base?

You are making a mistake here.

Every apple device is not purchased with the intention of playing video games on it, many phones or tablets are used for work or ya know... as phones.

Every Wii-U is purchased to play video games.

The very fast breakdown of the actual userbase of the Apple devices out there in my post gives you a closer idea of how many of those 1billion devices might actually be unique accounts or again might be remotely interested in games, that figure is your user base on ios, and that figure is no where near 300million.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

Barkley on 12 December 2016
Ganoncrotch said:
fleischr said:

Sales only in the NSMBU league?

So a cheaper mario game on a significantly larger user base only sells as good as a more expensive one a dramatically smaller user base?

again might be remotely interested in games, that figure is your user base on ios, and that figure is no where near 300million.

Then the figure goes lower when you consider how many of those people are actually willing to put $10 on a mobile game rather than just continue playing Angry Birds, Candy Crush or Clash of Clans for free. The Full Paid-App market isn't that big, developers almost ALL go with a Free To Play model for good reason.



ninjapirate42 on 12 December 2016

I'll go for 30 million paid downloads, just because I'm pretty confident I'll purchase myself and I've never paid a dime towards mobile yet :(

I'm thinking it can definitely do Pokemon Go numbers or more in terms of downloads, so I'll say 750 million downloaded.



Ganoncrotch on 12 December 2016
Barkley said:
Ganoncrotch said:

again might be remotely interested in games, that figure is your user base on ios, and that figure is no where near 300million.

Then the figure goes lower when you consider how many of those people are actually willing to put $10 on a mobile game rather than just continue playing Angry Birds, Candy Crush or Clash of Clans for free. The Full Paid-App market isn't that big, developers almost ALL go with a Free To Play model for good reason.

Even if you were to go with the "but what if they want a Nintendo experience though!"

You have PokemonGo completely for free and can enjoy Nintendo IP on your IOS device for no money. Like others said in the thread here, the best selling game on IoS with an upfront price tag is Minecraft and that has turned over 1/10th what the OP thinks Mario's endless runner will, that isn't happening.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive