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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

FromDK on 12 December 2016
shikamaru317 said:

Paid: 15m
Free: 150m

Lifetime

Mario is nowhere near as popular as Pokemon is nowadays and the endless runner genre is about played out now, Nintendo was too late to the party. 

Its not an endless runner.. every beginning has an ending.. :)

And I think Mario has fare broader appeal when it comes to "non gamers" than pokemon.

And last.. all the analytic I have seen says that Mario run.. will be a huge succes.. and even in this tread most agreeing that it easely will beat the second higest selling mobilgame of all time..

Its a nice time to be a Nintendo fan..



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fleischr on 12 December 2016
Barkley said:
fleischr said:

Angry birds paid attach rate has hovered between 15-50% paid downloads depending on the release.

Source: https://aytm.com/blog/research-junction/angry-birds-addiction/#sthash.0qgYwXI8.dpbs - A bit old, but proves something of my point.

Your source is taken from a sample size of 500 people... that's not evidence of anything. The only information we have is the original game sold 12 million after a year on the market. Let me just post this again.

Best Selling Paid Mobile Games

Tetris - 425 Million   (was priced at $0.99)
Minecraft - 30 Million
Angry Birds - 12 Million
Sonic the Hedgehog - 8 Million
Fruit Ninja - 6 Million
Doodle Jump - 5 Million
Final Fantasy IV: The After Years - 3 Million
Plauge Inc - 2 Million

The chance of Super Mario Run exceeding 300 million sales is practically non-existant.

What's your source of numbers? I'm genuinely curious.

A survey size of 500 is at least somewhat statistically relevant.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Barkley on 12 December 2016
fleischr said:
Barkley said:

Your source is taken from a sample size of 500 people... that's not evidence of anything. The only information we have is the original game sold 12 million after a year on the market. Let me just post this again.

Best Selling Paid Mobile Games

Tetris - 425 Million   (was priced at $0.99)
Minecraft - 30 Million
Angry Birds - 12 Million
Sonic the Hedgehog - 8 Million
Fruit Ninja - 6 Million
Doodle Jump - 5 Million
Final Fantasy IV: The After Years - 3 Million
Plauge Inc - 2 Million

The chance of Super Mario Run exceeding 300 million sales is practically non-existant.

What's your source of numbers? I'm genuinely curious.

A survey size of 500 is at least somewhat statistically relevant.

No It's not, not in the slightest. They got 500 Angry Birds Players aged over 18 that live in the USA. That's supposed to be statistically relevant compared to 1 billion people of all ages from all over the world? It's a complete joke xD

Sources are on Wikipedia, majority of information are the latest figures given by the developers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games#Mobile_phone



Bman54 on 12 December 2016
fleischr said:
BraLoD said:

Spending money on in-game purchases and actually purchasing the game are two VERY different things.
People are way more likely to start spending on a game they have been playing already than to pay to start playing it, $10 for a mobile game is quite the high price, even there is a big interest around it, don't even compare it to console game sales, they are nothing alike, at all.

The price point is an issue elsewhere - but the context here is special.

Let me put it this way....

30 million people on a 100 million user base on the Wii paid $25-$60 for NSMB

40 million-ish people bought SMB on NES in the same price range.

Super Mario World sold at least 20 million.

Successful Nintendo consoles have a potential reach of 40-100 million users. Expand that reach by 20x and drop the price of the SW by 50%-80%

Both of those games came packaged with many of the consoles for no extra cost. It's like using Wii Sports as an example. It's skewed up.



fleischr on 12 December 2016
Ganoncrotch said:
The OP's prediction has to be based on the 1billion ios devices PR announcement a while ago, but even at that joke figure, Given that I have 2 of those devices and I would not invest money in itunes ever then you have to factor in that a lot of the 1billion devices are either cases where many devices are owned by a single person and have 1 account on them (even 2 devices per person would half the number to 500m potential sales with 100% of owners buying it) and then you have to factor in of the 500m potential users of iDevices how many of those actually ever use their phone for anything other than just being a phone, let alone how many would ever consider spending money or time on a game, you are looking at maybe 1 in 10 so cuts down the potential buyers of the game to close to 50m at best, given Mario's attach rates on consoles are pretty high I would wager this will life time sell around 5-7m copies of the $10 version based on around 10% of the gamers on ios

This is just based on the ios version of the game and not taking Android into account, it is far harder to nail down numbers for android devices which are actively in use.

Regardless of anything though, to think you're going to get 300m sales on 1billion devices is insane.

Sales only in the NSMBU league?

So a cheaper mario game on a significantly larger user base only sells as good as a more expensive one a dramatically smaller user base?



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

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fleischr on 12 December 2016
Bman54 said:
fleischr said:

The price point is an issue elsewhere - but the context here is special.

Let me put it this way....

30 million people on a 100 million user base on the Wii paid $25-$60 for NSMB

40 million-ish people bought SMB on NES in the same price range.

Super Mario World sold at least 20 million.

Successful Nintendo consoles have a potential reach of 40-100 million users. Expand that reach by 20x and drop the price of the SW by 50%-80%

Both of those games came packaged with many of the consoles for no extra cost. It's like using Wii Sports as an example. It's skewed up.

Oh so Mario games were a non-factor in a desision to buy a Nintendo console?



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Barkley on 12 December 2016
fleischr said:
Bman54 said:

Both of those games came packaged with many of the consoles for no extra cost. It's like using Wii Sports as an example. It's skewed up.

Oh so Mario games were a non-factor in a desision to buy a Nintendo console?

You're proving your own comparison to be ludicrous. Buying a Nintendo Console for a Nintendo game, compared to buying a Mobile Phone for a Nintendo game. You can't compare the attatch rates of mario on a dedicated gaming device by Nintendo to that of mobile.

Most people with a phone don't play games, and paid games that are vastly succesful are very rare. The only game to ever come even REMOTELY close to 300 million sales is Tetris, and that was a $1 title not a $10 title, and honestly I'm not even convinced the developers are telling the truth when they say it sold that much.



Bman54 on 12 December 2016
fleischr said:
Bman54 said:

Both of those games came packaged with many of the consoles for no extra cost. It's like using Wii Sports as an example. It's skewed up.

Oh so Mario games were a non-factor in a desision to buy a Nintendo console?

That's not what you're arguing. You're using those as an example because you thought people paid full price for the games on top of buying the console. Well that's not the case, because they came free with the console, so it's not applicable to your attach rate argument because their numbers are hevaily skewed for good reason.



fleischr on 12 December 2016
Barkley said:
fleischr said:

What's your source of numbers? I'm genuinely curious.

A survey size of 500 is at least somewhat statistically relevant.

No It's not, not in the slightest. They got 500 Angry Birds Players aged over 18 that live in the USA. That's supposed to be statistically relevant compared to 1 billion people of all ages from all over the world? It's a complete joke xD

Sources are on Wikipedia, majority of information are the latest figures given by the developers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games#Mobile_phone

Angry birds only at 12 million paid downloads was in 2010 - with 42 million free downloads. A lot has changed since then.

http://mashable.com/2010/12/08/angry-birds-hits-42-million-downloads/#K415Pxi5Yqqg

That game has since cleared 2 billion downloads of all kinds

https://www.vg247.com/2014/01/22/angry-birds-downloaded-2-billion-times-has-as-many-maus-as-twitter/

Even if paid download attach rate dipped to 10% over those other 2 billion ish downloads - it still would have cleared 200 million paid downloads in it's lifetime.

For a successful mobile game to cross over into several hundred million paid downloads isn't out of the question.

I'd argue that Minecraft is a significantly more complex game for casuals to really get into - hence only the 30 million downloads.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

fleischr on 12 December 2016
Bman54 said:
fleischr said:

Oh so Mario games were a non-factor in a desision to buy a Nintendo console?

That's not what you're arguing. You're using those as an example because you thought people paid full price for the games on top of buying the console. Well that's not the case, because they came free with the console, so it's not applicable to your attach rate argument because their numbers are hevaily skewed for good reason.

In that case, they actually paid $200-$300 to play a Mario game instead of $60 then.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016