Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[fleischr]

Barkley said:

fleischr said:

Angry birds paid attach rate has hovered between 15-50% paid downloads depending on the release.

Source: https://aytm.com/blog/research-junction/angry-birds-addiction/#sthash.0qgYwXI8.dpbs - A bit old, but proves something of my point.

Your source is taken from a sample size of 500 people... that's not evidence of anything. The only information we have is the original game sold 12 million after a year on the market. Let me just post this again.

Best Selling Paid Mobile Games

Tetris - 425 Million   (was priced at $0.99)
Minecraft - 30 Million
Angry Birds - 12 Million
Sonic the Hedgehog - 8 Million
Fruit Ninja - 6 Million
Doodle Jump - 5 Million
Final Fantasy IV: The After Years - 3 Million
Plauge Inc - 2 Million

The chance of Super Mario Run exceeding 300 million sales is practically non-existant.

What's your source of numbers? I'm genuinely curious.

A survey size of 500 is at least somewhat statistically relevant.