300m purchases???? LMAO, bold.

Umm well Go has had, what, 500m downloads so far? I'd guess maybe 350m downloads for Run in the first year, and idk 20m purchases? I really don't know anything about the purchasing habits on mobile.

$10 is really, reeeaaally expensive on mobile.

i was going to download this back when i thought this was free to play. but now that it's "free to start" (aka for purchase with a demo) i have no plans to get it anymore. i haven't actually purchased a game on iphone in ages,.. there are soo many free to play options.

super mario run doesn't look any different than than the other runners i've played. honestly it looks pretty much the same as rayman adventures (free),.. and frankly i didn't really like that one either. 1 button platforming is pretty lame no matter which IP graces the screen.

i much prefer the puzzle games like cut the rope. nintendo should bring a game like "mario vs donkey kong" to mobile instead of super mario run, imo.



but anyways,.. back to being on topic. the OP is crazy thinking 300 million paid downloads. 10 million paid downloads would still make it among the most successful mobile games ever.

20 million paid download. I am being bold. I think that is over a two year frame.

I'd say 10M in December, perhaps 50M LT, free downloads will be huge tough !

Paid downloads?

Idk, 8M?

I made a clear distinction on lifetime numbers.

Lifetime: 1 billion + total downloads, 300 million of which will be paid. The rest all free.

I think the attach rate of paid downloads at launch will be higher - maybe in the realm of 50-60% starting out.

If it doesn't pass 300m free downloads lifetime, I may eat my hat. 

It's not crazy - it's just the scale of what the mobile market really is. All the big smartphone games easily coast by 1 billion downloads. Given the name recognition of the IP and how heavily Apple themselves are promoting it, it'll cross into that strasphere a lot more easily than you might imagine.

Take into consideration that Nintendo doesn't get 100% of the revenue here.

Nintendo won't go full mobile because the smartphone games are a really great marketing tool for dedicated hardware and more 'premium' experiences.

I don't take issue with 1 billion downloads, I take issue with you saying a $10 game will get 300 million purchases.

Minecraft is the 2nd best selling paid mobile game of all time and has a little over 30 million purchases at $7. Super Mario Run won't do close to 300 Million, Tetris is the only game to beat that nothing else comes even REMOTELY close.

Joke thread? Paid 15 - 20 million on apple, with Android double.

This lol