Predict: How many paid downloads will get Super Mario Run get?

[fleischr]

Barkley said:

fleischr said:

I predict about 300 million paid downloads lifetime - that includes the eventual Android release. About 40 million paid downloads the first month.

Bro... you cray.

There's no way it's going to make $3 Billion in sales, the entirety of Nintendo only got $4.3 Billion in Revenue in 2016.

10 Million full price sales would be very good for it to achieve.

If Super Mario Run sold 300 Million Copies then there's really no arguing Nintendo should just go full mobile, because that's ridiculous. That one low-cost development game would make more profit then the entire company has in years.

It's not crazy - it's just the scale of what the mobile market really is. All the big smartphone games easily coast by 1 billion downloads. Given the name recognition of the IP and how heavily Apple themselves are promoting it, it'll cross into that strasphere a lot more easily than you might imagine.

Take into consideration that Nintendo doesn't get 100% of the revenue here.

Nintendo won't go full mobile because the smartphone games are a really great marketing tool for dedicated hardware and more 'premium' experiences.